Troy st-UAB help

[topspinner]

I think I am missing something in this game. Every post i read everyones game of the week is troy St. Looking at the numbers it is hard to disagree, Troy st outgained Nebraska last week, Uab was outgained by over 400 yards against Florida. Uab lost 9 starters on defense and they are not a recruiting powerhouse that can simply reload. I have read that troy st should have quite a large fan contigent at the game, thus negating any substantial home field advantage. Here is what has me worried, first of all I am sure the linesmakers know this as well and opened the game UAB -5.5 (see California game from last week), furthermore Pinnacle and Grande who probably have the sharpest numbers are both at -3.5, whereas all the other books are at 3. One last thing the public is on Troy St, which is never a good sign.

This all being said, I still can't see betting on UAB, but this has me scared to bet on Troy St. I would love to hear from anyone who has any insight on the game and why UAB should be favored, would be most appreciated.

 

[kebbyc]

I know that UAB has been a great Sept. cover team, in fact not including last week, they were 11-0 ATS since 92 in Sept games and 14-7 since 92 in non-conference games. Their defense was ranked 5th nationally last year but as you say, they lost all but 2. Their offense was last in Conf. USA last year but return 8 of them. So :shrug: Trends say UAB for me but gut says Troy St. Hope someone else can shed some light.

 

[gardenweasel]

sorry,didn`t see the thread

sorry,didn`t see the thread

i jumped on troy when it came out at 4.5.....on top of losing all that defensive talent,uab`s losses on offense were crucial...qb aaron,who was a very capable signal caller is gone....a telling stat is the fact that despite being way down early vs florida,uab was only able to throw for 90 yards!.....you have to figure the gators cleared their bench and that uab would have to get some passing yardage in garbage time...i can only surmise that uab is again a ground oriented,pedestrian attack...and troy held nebraska under 200 yards rushing on over 50 attempts...also,troy threw for close to 200 yards vs the huskers.....one last thing....troy is the lesser school football wise and have beaten uab both times they played....i think this game means much more to troy who(as is the case with most smaller in state schools) will treat this game as a chance to beat the bigger in`state rival....troy belongs to no conference...this is a big game for them....i thought 4.5 looked like a gift...i expect them to win....that`s why they call it gambling....g.l....p.s.-if this goes to 1 or even,i may have to off some on uab for a potential middle in a low scoring affair.

 

[Bama6895]

Short on time or I would give further analysis. First, I made some comments about this game in my thread "Ward's Winners." Second, UAB does not really have a home field advantage. They draw in the 10000-20000 range each week and usually closer to 10,000. Finally, if you want to find out more about each team go to:

www.al.com

Go to the sports part and you should see sections for each team. This is Alabama live, which is a website that consists of new stories from around 5 Alabama newpapers.

Hope this helps and wish I could write more. IMO Troy State is the way to go. UAB lost so much from last year it is scary, look at gardenweasel's post to see what I am talking about.

GL this weekend.

 

[kebbyc]

I have some contrarian in me and everyone loving Troy St. reminds me of everyone loving Maryland last week. Troy St seems like the smart choice but I may take UAB just because I'm an idiot!