Tueday Night

[sobieski]

Had a nice week last week (9-2). The system I use has been unreal for the first 1.5 months. Historically, it has won, but not like this. (35-19 over-all for the year) So, I am waiting for the cold sting of reality to hit.... Hopefully it stays away a little longer. GL to all.

St. mary's +10.5

 

[TON]

GL , whats the sys ?

 

[sobieski]

It is fairly simple, I take games in which there is significant line movement; 2.5 points in CBB and 1.5 or more in NBA(I use Pinny as my guide) and as long as the public is backing the line move, I go against the public. In tonights games, St. Mary's opened at +7.5, it is currently +10.5 with 67% of the wagers (Sportsinsights) on Air Force. Thus the play is on St.Mary's. I also had Wash in the NBA (line went from Wiz -2.5 to +2 with 56% on NJ.) The premise is that the original line is the most accurate and the betting public moves the line. By doing this, in theory, you are attaining value by assuming the opener was the best line. I.E. St. Mary's is only 7.5 points worse then Air Force, and they are getting 10.5. Make sense?

 

[TON]

Gotcha, Hope St.Marys hold on for ya

 

[DerekNJND]

It is fairly simple, I take games in which there is significant line movement; 2.5 points in CBB and 1.5 or more in NBA(I use Pinny as my guide) and as long as the public is backing the line move, I go against the public. In tonights games, St. Mary's opened at +7.5, it is currently +10.5 with 67% of the wagers (Sportsinsights) on Air Force. Thus the play is on St.Mary's. I also had Wash in the NBA (line went from Wiz -2.5 to +2 with 56% on NJ.) The premise is that the original line is the most accurate and the betting public moves the line. By doing this, in theory, you are attaining value by assuming the opener was the best line. I.E. St. Mary's is only 7.5 points worse then Air Force, and they are getting 10.5. Make sense?

It WOULD make sense if opening lines were a "prediction" of the margin of victory. Unfortunately they are not, and sometimes lines are set to attract money to a certain side. That doesnt always mean its a losing side, but GL in your system anyway.