TUES puck picks

[Kronheim]

YTD: 14-13 (-0.05)

TB@TOR UN 5.5 -110
Both teams looking quite good defensively. I'm still not sold on TB's ability to score goals but I like what I'm seeing from their D so the under looks like the play here. All 4 meetings last year saw 5 goals or less.


BOS ML +120 & UN 5.0 -120
Bruins have the number one PK in the league right now. Both teams are below the league average in terms of number of goals scored, but the Devils are significantly worse in this regard than BOS (BOS 18th; NJ 24th). Despite NJ's 4-game winning streak, I'm still not convinced that the Devils are a great team all of a sudden. They only managed 11 shots vs. BUF the other night and somehow still managed to win 3-1 (incidently, 2 of
the 3 NJ goals were on the PP, a rate od success that likely won't be repeated tonight). NJ looks like a sucker bet, I'll take the BOS home dog here.


DET@CAR UN 5.5+100
I can't believe this line. Sure we all know DET can score. But in my mind it is far more significant that the under is 7-1 in CAR home games this season. Talk about convincing! But what about the goaltenders? Thanks to Chenker we know that Hasek has the flu but may still play. In my mind this is not as significant as it would seem: if Hasek plays, we have the benefit of one of the league's top goalers betwen the pipes; if not, and we get a minor leaguer (since Legace's having the MRI), then expect DET tighten their defense up considerably to compensate. That's how I see it. As for CAR, both Irbe and Barrasso are plenty reliable so I don't see a problem there.


Salami UN 58.5 -110
Wow, I'm on a lot of unders today! So this play kinda makes sense. Leaning to the under in the PHX@BUF, MIN@NSH and MON@EDM but can't pull the trigger on the individual plays. Nothing like a lil' bit of Grand Salami to spice things up. heh.

Good Luck tonight crew

Kron

 

[Chenker]

Hey Kron good luck tonight-

2 unders really jumped out at me today-

Tor/Tbay
Buff/Phoe

Lines on the Det/Car game have shifted 5 1/2 over up to -125 and -130 at some places- Detroit down to - 1/2 -130 at some places- Hasek might not be playing after seeing these numbers shift but you may be right about Detroit playing more defensive hockey tonight if Hasek not in net-

Also- I was liking the under in Edm/Mont but after reading Wigs post I layed off because of Montreal goalie issues- I do expect Salo to stand on his head tonight but can't back the total in this spot because of Habs goalie-

 

[wigs]

hope you guys dont mind me jumping in. i like that tb/tor under 5.5 as well, probably my strongest play on the board. i liked the buff under also but after reading some notes from this morning's skate around, buff will be without a couple of defensemen. that plus heavy vig on a total of 5 has me a little apprehensive right now. this is from buf site

Game Day: Phoenix Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres

The morning press conference with Lindy Ruff contained bad news mingled with good news. Ruff revealed that defenseman Dimitri Kalinin had suffered a broken thumb against the Montreal Canadiens and would be undergoing surgery this afternoon.

"We expect Dimitri be sidelined from four to six weeks," said Lindy.

"I hurt the thumb after Montreal scored their first goal," Kalinin told me this morning. "I just turned and ran into one of their players. I didn't see him."

Rhett Warrener will also be lost from four to six weeks. An MRI revealed a partial tear of the groin muscle.

"With a groin you never know," Ruff explained. "You can't really put a time frame on it."

With these injuries Brian Campbell and Rory Fitzpatrick will remain in Buffalo. Both played Saturday night in New Jersey and both played very well.

"I felt very comfortable with the way Brain and Rory played for us," said Lindy Ruff. "Brian has improved his game in many areas. He is better down low against the bigger forwards. He has learned to use his speed to overcome any size difference. We're encouraging him to get up ice?Xto join the rush. We don't want him to lead the rush; we want him to join it and we are encouraging him to do that."

The good news coming from this morning was that Richard Smehlik is returning tonight and Vaclav Varada will also be back in the line-up. Varada sat his one-game suspension Saturday night in New Jersey. He is also nursing a sore knee compliments of Doug Gilmour but it feels good enough to play.

In recent games the Buffalo penalty killing has fallen and with Warrener absent there is a definite hole to fill. "But we have four guys who can fill that hole," said Ruff. "Zhitnik, McKee, Smehlik, and Patrick. They can do the job."

There are many similarities between the Phoenix Coyotes and the Buffalo Sabres. Both teams depend on goaltending and hard work to win them games. Neither team scores an abundance of goals. Neither team has a superstar.

Martin Biron will start in the nets for Buffalo tonight. Biron's last start against Montreal was far from perfect. He allowed five goals on twenty-seven shots and he is determined to rebound. "That's something you have to experience throughout your whole career," Biron stated. "There's some goalies that when they have a bad start they come back harder than ever. This was one of Dominik Hasek's qualities while he was here and he was known for that. Everybody knew he would shut the door after a bad start"

Sean Burke is expected to start in goal for Phoenix. He has been spectacular this year. Burke's last game was a 1 ?V 0 win against the Colorado Avalanche. In that game he stopped 29 shots including a penalty shot by Greg De Vries. Burke has played so well this year that Managing Partner Wayne Gretzky, and the executive director of the Canadien Olympic Team is giving serious consideration to selecting Burke to be one of the goalies at Salt Lake City.

"Gretzky wants Sean on the team and I don't think he's going to get overruled," said a source close to the Canadien team.

To win tonight Buffalo must start getting more offensive production from their forwards. "Our key offensive players in key offensive situations haven't scored," Lindy Ruff told me this morning. "Offensively, some guys are pressing. But it's not from lack of work."

 

[Chenker]

thanks wigs- appreciate the info-

I agree, I think the Tbay/Tor under is the best play on the board as far as totals go-

 

[Kronheim]

Thanks for the feedback guys. Looks like the TOR/TB UN is emerging as the Penalty Box consensus today...it always makes me feel confident to know there's other cappers on plays too.

Having second thoughts about the BOS ML play...I hadn't considered the Ftorek factor at all and it does seem quite significant. I hate buy back but I just might do it on this one. Still ruminating...feel free to talk me in or out of it

 

[wigs]

wow. that is not how you typically hit an under that is 1-0 after 2 periods. well thank you cujo for stopping the penalty shot and hanging on to that one for us.

 

[Kronheim]

Recapping: 1-4 (-3.10)

First really terrible day in a while. Hard to swallow...ya know?

I will win again!