tues sept 7

[EXTRAPOLATER]

mon:9-6 +3.74
September:29-19-1 +14.24
-
ml:10-11 -1.03 (faves:5-7 -2.8) (dogs:5-4 +1.77)
rl:6-2 +5.57 (NL:2-1 +1.81) (AL:4-1 +3.76) // (V:1-0 +1.0) (H:5-2 +4.57)
totals:5-1 +5.94 (ov:2-0 +3.2) (un:3-1 +2.74)
team totals:2-1 +1.46 (ov:2-1 +1.46)
1st5:6-1-1 +5.3 (faves:4-1-1 +2.75) (dogs:1-0 +1.05) (ov: ) (un:1-0 +1.5)
parlays:0-3 -3.0
=====

No action on all my Padres (too bad)--I don't think I've played "action" for years...don't like having an unknown line and I can always make another play if there's a change.
Played my first parlays of the month...sheesh!
Yeah...I combine two 70% calls and I almost get a coin-toss chance...riiiiighhht. Actually had a system call of 70% on braves (highest of those I did)...oops:facepalm: ...(cough)...Brian Burres for Sigh Jung!

Loved yesterday's (shit, did I ever want that Latos start...he should be Cy) but slim pickin's today:

mets@Nationals ov8.5 -115 1.15/1
cardinals@Brewers ov9.5 -110 1.1/1
Blue Jays -1 -113 1.13/1
-


---Nats can't seem to stop hitting...818 OPS the past week while scoring 7 per game and that was before continuation Monday; mets week OPS shot up to .738, while scoring 5 per, due to their stunning outburst Sunday...they went from 21 hits then to only 3, I think it was, Monday; 2 ML debuts and hard to call but I found out this:
(Dillon Gee, 24 yrs-R-hi k-bb but 23HR in 161.1 AAA and 4.96era)
(Yuneski Maya, 29 yrs, Cuban defector-R-3.38era at 3 levels minor, only 21.1ip)
Neither should last long and both pens have been getting a work, on weekend and certainly on Monday; ump Jim Reynolds is an over-ump and wind projected blowing out to center at 13mph...low HR vs Maya but sample too small to tell, while the big fly has been a bit of a problem for Gee. Lean Nats but lean pass-side more so.
---Narveson has been decent lately but he can't go deep and Brew pen remains terrible, not to mention that he was crap in 2 starts at Busch--June and July--and he's been crap at Miller Park in 12 SP and 4 BP; Lohse has been crap vs Brew in 13+2, including 1 at Miller '10, he's been shit on the road in 5 (incl.9.26era) and total dogshit in 2 of 3 (H to cubs/at WASH) since coming off the DL (he was semi-decent at Pirates in between but that hardly indicates squat); stl came in with a joke of a 7-day OPS of .497, scoring about 2 per game, but they enjoy hitting at Miller, as evidenced Monday; Brewers came in only .651 past week, scoring 3 per, but are now back home where they greatly prefer hitting and Lohse, as mentioned, should accommodate; both clubs hit better at night and they put up 14 Monday (stl N759 to D706, Mil N774 to D744); strong wind blowing out to left at 31mph projected...roof is, or was, retractable but I can't remember the last time they had it closed and the weather should be fine other than the wind, a wind that should particularly help right-handed power hitters and the Brew had 4 of their top 5 in the order matching that yesterday (and then toss in Fielder) while both Pujols and Holliday, of course, are R's; Lohse has served up 6HR in 34ip in his career at Miller while Narveson has been tagged 11 times in 69.2ip this year at home; ump Davidson is even
--- -1.5 +131 may be smarter but I figure the Jays will win but I don't trust the BP, especially closer Gregg; Marcum has been good at home vs in 2+2 and was good @Tex April 5th...he's been very good lately; Feldman, coming off the DL, has been poor vs in 5+3 (0-3/5.94/.294) especially in
1+3@Rogers (8.25era)...he was good home vs Apr5 before being crap @May15 (0-1 vs '10 / team 1-1)...he's been shit on the road in 9+4 and pretty bad in a bullpen role pre-DL; Jays with a seasonal OPS vs R matching the Yanks (near .800) and are around .800 past week while scoring app.5 per; Tex .776 vs R 2010--that includes their lovely park, of course--and started this series at .788 past week scoring 4.5 per, though they have some sticks hurting and Jays have their number this year (something like 7-2 for T.O...can't recall exactly); irrelevant but ump Barksdale is even; might add ML to a parlay if it turns my fancy, though my P's have been losing for about 5 weeks now

Some copying and pasting from my notepad file so hopefully it don't turn out too funky.

Other temptations but my system 'caps talked me out of some.
To hell with it...I ain't sleeping anywho so will copy and paste those I did...

Mil 62(-114)+8 (lean, but prefer over)
ov9 68%(-144)+8 ov9.5 63%(-110)+10
(9.5 opened +104 dagnabbit...mighta bought the 9 then)
Col 53%(-121)-2
(was leaning under, here, but wind blowing out and Monday's big output says pass; Cooper a decent ump for under, though)
Ariz 54%(+108)+5
(a million scoreless by Kennedy and they can't bag the W?!...passola)
un8 48%(-108)-4
(Chase Field, previously hot 'Zona sticks and previously slumping Lincecum say see-ya; ump Emmel another decent under play, though)
Det 55%(-162)-7
(these tools have cost me the past 2 days, and chisox are hitting great lately)
Tor 65%(-155)+4 / -1.5 50%(+131)+6
tb 54%(-116)even
Min 75%(-290)even / -1.5 62%(-137)+4
(runline tempting...maybe a P with Jays if line movements are favorable)
Oak 65%(-168)+2 / -1.5 49%(+130)+5
(Fister has been good vs...accounted for but not much value for this price; ump Crawford an over-ump so beware the 7, despite the M'slackin'sticks)

I think that's all I did. I don't allow anything over 80%--rarely get in the 70's--so didn't bother doing Yanks (break-even on -371's is 79%, after all)


I need to move to a planet with a 36 hour day.


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

Notice my flippin' runline vs moneyline stats for Sept?
Was the same crap for August.
I've cleaned up on runlines every month (who says not to play 'em?...even at home?).
Was smokin' on moneylines, too, pre-August, at least.


gotta be da shoes

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

frig...still no word on the Petco game.
Latos should be a go, despite word elsewhere that the Padres might skip his start...more reliable sources say he should be in and considering the slim hold on the division--what with the wild card looking more like it will go to the NL East, but who knows with the games still left--I'd say they want their best arm going.

No other SD SP will see my money vs Kershaw, the way he's going; erratic earlier in the season but he's been dynamite lately. Still only 22 and he has future Cy Young written all over him. If it's vs Latos then I don't think they could find a total low enough to post--It will be 6.5 max and maybe even a 6. I'd be tempted but the illness likely means a short outting and, despite having a fantastic BP, the Pads pen has been used a lot lately, including the last 5 ip Monday with whatever best options Bud Black had available. Correia--originally scheduled for Tuesday--could be used if long relief is necessary and I want absolutely no part of an under if he makes an appearance. under 1st5 at a 3.5--maybe even a 3--might survive. Sounds dicey but the ballpark, offenses and SP's might back it.

FFsakes...I just spent the last half-hour plus doing a search for the origin or betting baseball totals. I've read the story before somewhere...is a good one. Can't remember the SP's, now, but someone asked a book if he could bet on there being a shutout or something like that. Not sure f it was a Koufax game or what...pisses me off that I can't remember because it was a good and interesting story. Book offered a total, instead...can't remember if it was a 7...think it was actually a 6. I think the final might have been 1-0, but memory is not serving. Anyone having a link or reference then please provide. I've tried everything in a search and found squat. Crap...I'm gonna search this forum because I'm pretty sure I posted some or all of it here, way back when it was fresher in memory.

Anyways...in the interim they opened the Petco game. A 6. No surprise. Heavy juice, too, for the under. Pinnacle has it 6 -126 but I think it might come down (juice-wise) as I see the Greek with -115 and their lines are usually juicier. I can't touch the full game anywho, as mentioned. Pinny with a 3.5 for 1st5 with a sick -153...-145 at the Greek. I can go under 3 at -118 but if the total comes down in general then that price should improve. People hearing about Latos' illness might go the over--maybe smartly--which might bring it down.

Ump Wendelstedt is even, taking a long-term look at his work; good K% this year and a few others but he's had his over-years as well. Some umps I know by observing but most just by studying the numbers over the years...boob-tube can be misleading, anywho, and lotsa umps seem to be inconsistent week-to-week or year-to-year...even flippin' pitch-to-pitch. Hardly the be-all and end-all of betting totals but I use the info to steer my off of some totals. Only a few umps are truly reliable for totals; I especially prefer Hirschbeck, Eddings, Cuzzi and a couple of others for unders...Miller, Welke (Tim), Estabrook are decent, too...Hirschbeck is about the only one I've played under just because he's going, and that cost me a few times so don't do that shit no more. For overs I'm hoping for dudes like Bucknor, McLelland, G.Davis, Crawford, Marquez, Joyce...just someone who might improve my odds or at least not hurt them.

I would've tried Kershaw over Correia, anywhere near even money. Really wanted Latos over space-cadet Padilla yesterday. Side is impossible to call, today, what-with this flu shiite (or even without it). Close to even money and I'll try the under 3 1st5.

What a freakin' rant, aye?
Been up 27 hours so must to be careful if I'm betting.
At least no booze.


I gotta find that history of BB totals schpeel.

 

[jtc1984]

I see 5.5 at Bookmaker...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I see 5.5 at Bookmaker...

holy shit...but I'm not surprised.
not with the juice I see on the 6's.

I can move totals as much as a run at Pinnacle but not if they're offering 6.5 (or less).

I should probably save my money and just sigh after the 2-1 final.
I dunno...1st5 only, as mentioned. Some headcases in the lad pen and Pads have been used extensively during their skid and yesterday.

Wind out to right at 9mph, also, which is surprising for San Diego.

=============================

5.5 -108 (on under) at Pinnacle since my above typation

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

1st5 dodgers@Padres un3 -115 1.15/1
1st5 Blue Jays -0.5 -122 1.22/1
-


other leanzonly:
1st5 atl -0.5 -131
1st5 sf@Ariz un4.5 -120
1st5 Brewers -120
marlins ov4 -117 (ml maybe better +14x)
Brewers ov4.5 -114
rays -10y
Twins -4.5 +666
too many nfl games
a nap


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