Tuesday Hoops

[AK49]

Posted Record 15 - 2 - 1

In no particular order:

Auburn -13 W
Boston College +1 L
Iowa -21 L
Tulsa -9' L
Canisius +15' L
Morehead State +16 L
Creighton -12 L
San Jose State -13' L
Columbia +18 L

All bets are of equal size and were made at Pinnacle on Monday night.

Good Luck All

AK49

(edited to post Wins and, more to the point tonight, Losses)

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

dude, you seem to know your shit....been looking at your last 4-5 posts...great stuff!

hope you're here to stay.

gl today.

and thanks for the early picks...

 

[AK49]

Thanks, TV

Absolutely gonna hang.

This is the best forum I've found.....(geez, I should bill MJ $20 for this.)

Anyway, really looking forward to this Saturday.......the first saturday following News Years is right up there with the second round of March Madness for the best times in college hoops.l

Good Luck,

AK49

 

[RexBudler]

nice job AK.........keep it up

 

[gman2]

always like to see how other cappers approach their hoops plays. you have a 'system' that projects your plays or do you have certain criteria for your hoops plays? seems like you have a good mix of high dogs/low dogs and high chalk/low chalk. how do you approach your capping?

 

[AK49]

Thanks for the kind words, Rex.

Gman, I certainly don't have any hidden secrets. The little stretch this past week really is an anomoly, as much as I'd like to say it's "run-of-the-mill".

Mostly, and I'm kinda ashamed to admit it, it's SOMP. I read your stuff and it's obvious to me you know far more about fundamental hoops handicapping.

Geesus, I hate this phrase but I am just in a zone right now.

One thing I do keep to.......is I very rarely play games other than home favorites. That's obviously not to say I just bet favorites, but I like the home team to be favored.

I don't know, man.....I'd tell ya if I knew.

AK49

 

[AK49]

Gman,

Good morning.

You asked a thoughtful question last night and I didn't really give you a good answer. Thought about it overnight and here are a couple more things I realized I always pay attention to.

While watching the games of the day, I always check CSW Stats to see the early line movement before Pinnacle even posts the next day's games. I like to be ready with what games I'm going to play when the lines come up. I probably give more weight to this early movement than anything else. It's free info and not always complete, but if you only flat-bet $50 you can't afford a premium service.

Also, I mentioned before only liking to play home-favored games, well I realized it's even more than that......I usually only play games where the home team IS at home.....no off-site games for both teams....it's almost like a home-favored game (with the home-team really at home) is a consistent point to start from.

Also, I also pay a great deal of attention to the "personality" of different teams. Especially on the question of whether they handle the role of large dogs well.....can they backdoor or do they give up? Teams like Morehead State and Montana. I wouldn't bet Drake with someone else's money (LOL, I say that and notice that Drake covered last night).

And I didn't even realize it til you pointed it out, but it would be the rare night I didn't have a mix of dogs and favorites. We've both seen nights where one or the other predominates.....I want a little of both.


Hope this helps.

AK49

 

[ajoytoy]

gl bud!

toy

 

[AK49]

From 15-2 to 16-10 in one night!!

What a disaster.

I think the eggheads call this "regression to the mean"

I just call it by it's steet name: "pain".

Sorry.