Tuesday In The NCAA

[Tiger]

Yesterday: 2-0
YTD: 57-44

Tuesday
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1)Bowling Green (+6)

Kent State is coming off B/B Overtime wins over the last 6 days...............now has 9-16 Bowling Green tonight.............and then plays 15-8 Miami, Ohio, 15-8 Ohio and 1st place 19-6 Akron. This is a very dangerous sandwich spot for them.

BG has not played as bad as their record would indicate. Yes, they are 9-16 (5-9 conference) but in their last 9 home games, they are 4-5 S/U with 2 of the losses in OT, and 2 others by 3 pts and by 1 pt.

When the stats are filtered for home/road, Kent State shows a slight advantage in the D #'s, while BG shows a slight advantage in the O #'s. There actually is a big disparity in the O3FG% with Kent at just 32.7%, and BG at 37.7%.

It's a poor spot in the schedule for Kent to be laying this many points on the road.


2)South Florida (+9)

The South Florida Bulls continue to lose a lot of games. They also continue to play everyone very, very tough.

They are 6-3 ATS in their last 9, and are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 on the road.

Providence is 4-7 ATS at home YTD, and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home.

The flitered stats show advantages for the Friars on offence, but the Bulls on defence.

It's simple too many points. This game goes to the final minute like so many of South Florida's games have.


Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger


more to come..................................

 

[DeDe]

good luck

 

[shamrock]

Tiger, made good money on the Bulls this season, as you stated they play tough. But after playing Louisville extremely tough, they got destroyed in their last game I believe, don't have stuff in front of me, but I got hit pretty good their last game against maybe SH?
good luck buddy, great night last night

 

[Tiger]

shamrock.....that game was against Rutgers and SF did put up an air ball.

But I just noticed something else about their recent string of games.

Over their last dozen games they are 8-4 ATS.
When the line is 3.5 or less, they are 0-4 ATS, because let's face it, they lose most games. But when the line is higher than 3.5, they are 8-0 ATS, because they play to the last whistle.

Interesting.

 

[Tiger]

Adding
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3) Missouri(+2.5)

Texas A&M is 16-7 YTD, but just 2-5 away. Mizzu is only 11-12 YTD, but 10-4 at home. I know the teams are of different quality than past years, but it is noteworthy that A&M has lost 6 straight as a visitor in this series, and 8/10 overall.

The Agies are 2-4 on the road in the conference with one of the wins over Baylor. The Tigers are 3-3 at home in the conference with the wins over 19-6 Kansas, 14-12 Oklahoma State and 14-9 K.State.

The filtered stats show the teams are even in OFG% and free throws, but Mizzu has a small advantage on the boards and a sizeable advantage in DFG%.

And like I have said many times before, IMO the Big 12 is the toughest conference in the nation to give points on the road.



4)Evansville (+7.5)

Southern Illinois is 18-9 YTD............just 7-6 on the road.
Evansville is just 7-18 YTD................but are 6-7 at home.

Southern Illinois is 1-5 ATS their last 6 games.
Evansville is 5-2 ATS their last 7 overall, and 5-2 ATS their last 7 home games.

Believe it or not the filtered stats show the Aces with better numbers in ALL the categories I look at, including a very impressive DFG% of 39.9% at home.

And don't forget that the Salukis have Northern Iowa up next in a big home game on Saturday. They might be looking ahead to that one tonight.

Evansville is a nice live home dog.