Trying to keep it going... not much buzz about tonight's games so I am rather on my own 
From what I can tell the games this morning should all be close, but I do give the edge to Japan (and bet them to win group) so...
China DRAW +225
Korea DRAW +210
Japan (two-way) -126
(I recently changed my units approach. Assume my current flat bet is 50. Then I calculate how much to bet so that the total returned from a successful wager is 100. Example: China DRAW +225... I would bet 30.77 to win 69.23. Calculation is simply
TOTAL RETURN
-------------------
1 + European style odds
100 / (1 + 2.25) = 30.77.
The reasoning behind this is to try and balance out the risk on each game. It also makes bookkeeping much easier. Of course for multiple unit bets, either multiply the numerator by the number of units or multiply the final bet amount by the number of units.)
Seems to be working thus far, anyway. I don't like laying 2 units to win 1, but for some reason don't mind laying 1.33 units to win .67 units. Odd but there it is.
Also have played Portugal -0.5 -225 for 2 units as I expect line to rise. I will be fading the US at every possible turn - I expect that to be thrice.
From what I can tell the games this morning should all be close, but I do give the edge to Japan (and bet them to win group) so...
China DRAW +225
Korea DRAW +210
Japan (two-way) -126
(I recently changed my units approach. Assume my current flat bet is 50. Then I calculate how much to bet so that the total returned from a successful wager is 100. Example: China DRAW +225... I would bet 30.77 to win 69.23. Calculation is simply
TOTAL RETURN
-------------------
1 + European style odds
100 / (1 + 2.25) = 30.77.
The reasoning behind this is to try and balance out the risk on each game. It also makes bookkeeping much easier. Of course for multiple unit bets, either multiply the numerator by the number of units or multiply the final bet amount by the number of units.)
Seems to be working thus far, anyway. I don't like laying 2 units to win 1, but for some reason don't mind laying 1.33 units to win .67 units. Odd but there it is.
Also have played Portugal -0.5 -225 for 2 units as I expect line to rise. I will be fading the US at every possible turn - I expect that to be thrice.
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