Tuesday NBA

[LyteSpeed]

Been lurking around this forum and thought I would post some plays and insights to add to those already here.

Plays will range from 2-5 units or stars or whatever you what to call them.

Have'nt looked over the entire card today but I have found one total play I already like.

Cleveland vs Orlando OVER 195 (Olympic) --> 3X

I fully expect this clash to reach the 200's. Both teams play poor team defense and with Orlando's lack of size in the middle I expect Cleveland to attack the basket with their quick guards creating FT opportunities.

The new coach for Cleveland is a big reason why I really like this game to go over the total. Here is an excerpt from a cleveland paper...

Smart said there will be a noted difference when the Cavaliers take the floor tonight at Gund Arena against the Orlando Magic. "Every coach wants his team to run first," Smart said. "I want them to have fun, and running is what they have fun doing.

"That will be our basic offense."

...and with Orlando on the other side of this running it is bound to turn into a trackmeet as Orlando prefers you run with them and can't see them trying to slow the pace down tonight.

*The last 3 meetings between these teams all exceeded 204 pts


If anyone knows the status of M. Miller it would be appreciated. If he plays this is a top play.


more to come...

 

[LyteSpeed]

Props

Props

Gone through props and here is what I've got.
*All props from Olympic*
(Risk ?X on favs and to Win ?X on dogs)


New Jersey @ Sacramento

J. Kidd OVER 28.5 pts/assists @ +130 --> 2X

J. Kidd on the year is averaging exactly 29 pts and assists combined. On the road however he averages 2.5 better at 31.5 and on the second half of back to backs his number is at 33. Dog price is very much a bargain


R. Jefferson UNDER 15 pts @ -115 --> 2X

R. Jefferson only scores 13.3 pts on the road per game and on second halfs of back to backs averages even less with 12.3 a game.


C. Webber UNDER 33 pts/assists @ -170 --> 2X

This number is flat out off. I'm guessing they meant points and rebounds but it is what it is. His avg on the year at home is 26.5.


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One prop which appears daily which I play and has made me money is the following...

Team to score 10 first.

This prop always seems to be inflated for the fav.

For instance if you look at the games today.

Cleveland is a 3-3.5 dog at most books. For the 1st quarter Cleveland is just a 1 pt dog. Now reaching 10 is probably about the first 5 mins of the game or so. The line for that I reckon should be +.5 for Cleveland if that. The proper moneyline without juice would be around -105/+105.

Keeping that in mind the line you get is +130!

It seems to get even better with bigger dogs if you do the math.

Therefore...
*Play these small right now*

Cleveland @ +130 --> 1X
Houston @ +150 --> 1X
New Jersey @ +140 -->1X



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