tuesday ncaa hoops >>>

loophole

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last night's warnings prove well founded as all good things come to an end and so did my winning streak with a 1-5 collapse. i swear for some reason i could feel it coming and, in a lucky sense of foreboding, pulled back my presses on everything but the ul laf game to minimize the night's losses. really had no business playing the ohio game as the mac has always confounded me. anyway, now that the streak is broken will drop back my units and games played as tourney time calls for discretion.

going to put this one up now as it will probably be my only play of the night and i expect there's a good chance the line may move upwards today:


boise st -2: this is mainly a play against utep as the miners appear to have packed it in amid talk around el paso of bringing alum nolan richardson in next year. wonder how his act will play in west texas. anyway, utep losers of nine of their last ten with only win coming in el paso against archrival nm state. miners 0-12 on the road this year, 3-10-1 ats. they are 1-2 in neutral site games with the only win away from el paso against miserable northwestern state. one can only wonder how they managed to win that one shooting 31% against a basicly defenseless team. shooting is the bane lately for the miners. roy smallwood has been the team's leading scorer for most of the year but as of late he has virtually disappeared, averaging a mere 5 ppg over the last four. utep's new leading scorer at 13 ppg is guard eugene costello who is shooting 39% from the floor for the year and is a blistering 3 of 33 from 3 point range over the last ten games. boise state improved of late going 4-2 s/u, 4-1-1 ats over the last six. reason for the improvement is that broncos are finally providing some support for all-american stud abe jackson. no coincidence in recent wins that four broncos have scored in dd in three of last five games. bronco defense is probably good enough to hold utep under 70 in this game as miners only average 62 ppg out of el paso. this provides further encouragement as utep only 2-16 s/u when scoring under that number.


waiting on the wky/ul-laf line to come up. if it appraches dd, say-8 or better, may come back with a play on the ragin' cajuns.


gl and, like last night and the rest of postseason, be careful out there.
 

giantfandave

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i agree totally with your assessment on the boise st game. also on boise 4-2 su/3-1 ats run they beat fresno st 61-58 at fresno, and beat smu 80-63. at least they have shown they can win on the road. got'em at -1 1/2.

good luck loophole
 

just cover

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loophole-

I usually don't jump on a game real early but I am with you on Boise St. I think Boise St. is the better all around team and I have already thrown a unit on them early just in case the line goes up which I think it will. Good call.

good luck

just cover
 

loophole

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see that boise st is down to a pick'em now, which is kind of curious as in scouting around the consensus sites i see 60% to 65% favoring the broncos. of course those are not necessarily real bettors, and it's obvious that some kind of significant action is coming in on utep. however, i am undeterred and will stick with boise absent some tangible reason not to.

also see that ul laf is up to +8-. i'm starting to get interested, let's see where it goes.
 

doc

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Loop, I jumped all over UL Lafayette at...

Loop, I jumped all over UL Lafayette at...

+ 8.5 at olympic, not sure if it hasn't fallen to 8 or not, if the line moves even higher, i'll whack them again. If your interested as to why, look under my post, but rememeber it's just my opinion. I with you on bosie, i look for a strong by back just before game time. GL
 
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loophole

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i am trying to walk that fine line between being cautious and reflective with my post-season plays and trying not to be too cautious as a result of my first losing night in a while. when it's all sliced and buttered, i still come out feeling three more plays are warranted tonight:


princeton +8: wish now i hadn't missed out on this game when it was still +9 or more, but still am comforable with this number. i make this line to be around -6 or so based on the numbers and to me the situation calls for shrinking it a bit more. if princeton wins tonight, they are the ivy champs and an ncaa player. if they lose, they have to beat both yale and princeton again to get there. penn actually gets two shots to win the title with the way the tiebreaker games set up. if i was a bulldog i would be balls to the wall tonight as the chance for princeton to get in the back door look pretty slim.


ul laf +8-: i also made this line around +6 or so based on the numbers which should be adjusted downward for a tourney championship.


san jose st +3-: i studied this game early this morning, narrowly decided to pass, then started looking at again after it was posted by my esteemed colleague burgh (steel city selections) i've come back around. rice has two players out and three playing with injuries bad enough to limit their play. may or may not affect their starting lineup a lot, but those five do account for 25% of the team minutes played by rice, as well as 25% of rebounds and about 2/3s of blocked shots. i don't think it is likely to expect that a weak team like rice will be able to raise their level of play to tournament level facing those kind of limitations. i am also still impressed with san jose st's win on nevada's tough homecourt last game. san jose shot over 50% in that game for the first time since their season opener. that has to give them confidence. rice won easily in both regular season meetings, and while i am not always a proponent of the difficulty of beating a team three times in a season, i do believe that it is improbable for a bad team to beat another bad team three times in a season.


still on bise at a pick. gl tonight.
 

doc

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These are the only injuries i can find for rice...

These are the only injuries i can find for rice...

the are from fiest lines, and for the most part they are pretty accurate, could you please explain where you are getting your other information, unless it's a secret:confused: , Thanks in advance.

San Jose St at Rice Injuries
San Jose St
No significant Injuries
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rice
C Ferron Morgan Foot Out indefinitely. 2/9





Close this window to return to the Offshore grid.
 

loophole

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no secret, doc. basicly compiled from a combination of local and campus newspapers as well as conference and team sites. what i have is: c vamar diene out; f nick robinson out; f t j mckensie, c ferron morgan and guard michael walton all probably playing but significantly hampered by injury.
 

doc

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Just kidding loop,

Just kidding loop,

dont' have the information on those two schools and even though the game has started i did buy back my bet on rice, line dropped 1 point before tip off, and if rice does cover the three, you won't hear any complaing from me. GL :D
 

doc

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Loop, thanks so much for your info...

Loop, thanks so much for your info...

it really came in handy, owe you one:toast: , all i lost was the juice, 15 dollars juice is a hell of a lot better than losing $150.:)
 
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