Last Post Sunday: 2-0 with a push
YTD: 19-20
Tuesday
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1)Mississippi (+6)
The key stats that I look at show a slight advantage to Florida, but it's some other angles I see that I like in this one.
Florida has played only 5 true road games this year and are just 3-2. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall.
Ole Miss is 10-2 straight up at home, with the only two losses coming to Memphis and then this past Saturday to LSU.........a game that was tied with 2 minutes left. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 overall.
I also think this is a let-down spot for the Gators, a sandwich game if you will. They had a big home game last Saturday against divisional rival Vanderbilt, and have another big divisional home game this Saturday with Kentucky. They might be looking past this one. I'll take a pretty good home side here getting a very generous 6 points.
2)South Florida(+13.5)
Wow, the numbers just don't add up to a 13.5 point spread in this one.
Sure, S.F. is only 6-13 on the year, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6, and are 6-3 ATS on the road YTD.
They have played 3 conference road games so far and have lost by 6, 3, and 5 pts, to teams with records of 15-6, 12-6 and 14-4, all better than or equal to Cinci's 14-7 mark. The last 4 times they have been a DD dog, they have lost by 3, 3, 6, and 4 pts.
The Bearcats have lost 5 of their last 6 straight up and maybe are not as good a team as a lot of people thought. They are also just 3-7 ATS at home this year.
The key stats (OFG%, DFG%, etc) just don't show that much variance to feel like this will be a blowout.
I'll take the 13.5 points.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
YTD: 19-20
Tuesday
---------------------------------------------------------------------
1)Mississippi (+6)
The key stats that I look at show a slight advantage to Florida, but it's some other angles I see that I like in this one.
Florida has played only 5 true road games this year and are just 3-2. They are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall.
Ole Miss is 10-2 straight up at home, with the only two losses coming to Memphis and then this past Saturday to LSU.........a game that was tied with 2 minutes left. They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 overall.
I also think this is a let-down spot for the Gators, a sandwich game if you will. They had a big home game last Saturday against divisional rival Vanderbilt, and have another big divisional home game this Saturday with Kentucky. They might be looking past this one. I'll take a pretty good home side here getting a very generous 6 points.
2)South Florida(+13.5)
Wow, the numbers just don't add up to a 13.5 point spread in this one.
Sure, S.F. is only 6-13 on the year, but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6, and are 6-3 ATS on the road YTD.
They have played 3 conference road games so far and have lost by 6, 3, and 5 pts, to teams with records of 15-6, 12-6 and 14-4, all better than or equal to Cinci's 14-7 mark. The last 4 times they have been a DD dog, they have lost by 3, 3, 6, and 4 pts.
The Bearcats have lost 5 of their last 6 straight up and maybe are not as good a team as a lot of people thought. They are also just 3-7 ATS at home this year.
The key stats (OFG%, DFG%, etc) just don't show that much variance to feel like this will be a blowout.
I'll take the 13.5 points.
Good luck out there tonight,
Tiger
