07:05 PM NHL [53] Minnesota Wild -125
07:05 PM NHL [55] Arizona Coyotes +145
07:35 PM NHL [58] Philadelphia Flyers -150
08:05 PM NHL [64] Saint Louis Blues -210
10:05 PM NHL [69] Anaheim Ducks +140
07:30 PM NBA [502] Cleveland Cavaliers -9-110
10:35 PM NBA [506] Golden State Warriors -8.5 -110
08:05 PM MLB [952] TOTAL u6.5 -120 (Chicago Cubs vrs Cleveland Indians) ( J Lester/ C Kluber)
1 unit bet pays 173 ....betdsi line
--Peters in net just might spark this AZ team..Anyway, considering NJ's offensive woes, they don't deserve to be this big a favorite.
--Subban in net for Boston. He's been mediocre in the minors so far this year, and rotten in his only NHL start (2015)...and MN coach very mad at his team..
--SJ never been good in 1st game home off a long road trip, and never should be this big a fave vs Ducks anyway
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Philadelphia -145
I'll jump on the Flyers here at home...Back to back games, but this one comes at home after a tough loss to Montreal last night...Issue I see for Buffalo is Nilsson will be in the net...Sabers #2 will get a salty bunch of Flyers looking to attack the net tonight...Nilsson supports a 3.12gaa..Buffalo also struggles to score the puck as well..They have allowed 12 goals, but it wasn't because of Nilsson....He makes his debut tonight and the Flyers are one of the top scoring team in the league so far...Buffalo has some injuries right now and that hasn't helped them much...Number wise it's tough to call out the Sabers for much else..Only playing 4 games, doesn't give us much help number wise...Philly might go with Mason and he is coming off a solid losing outing....Neuvirth might get a chance to redeem himself however and facing the Sabers might be good for him mentally...Either way, I'll back the Flyers here at home to rebound off a loss..
Detroit -154
Given the venue and current play of these teams, the price could easily be higher. After a strong preseason, the Wings dropped their first two games, both losses coming in the state of Florida. However, they've since responded with four straight victories, outscoring opponents by a 15-5 margin. With the last three victories coming against the likes of SJ, NYR and Nashville, they'eve been beating some decent teams, too. Now, they step down in class to take on a struggling Carolina team which is playing the final leg of a season-opening 6-game road trip. Through five games, the Canes have allowed 20 goals. No other team in the East has allowed more. While the Canes have managed a couple of wins here lately, the Wings have dominated them here throughout the years, generally laying a much steeper price than they are here. I like their chances of staying hot for another night. Consider laying the wood with the Wings.
Senators vs. Canucks
Play: Under 5?
Ottawa comes off a 4-1 loss at home to Tampa Bay with a power play ranked #28. The Under is 5-2 in the Senators last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Vancouver's hot start has been keyed by defense, #4 in the NHL in goals allowed, but just #26 in goals scored. The Under is 5-2-3 in the Canucks last 10 home games.
TORONTO +111 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The Lightning will go with Ben Bishop here but in time, you will be seeing much less of this stiff. Bishop is this year?s Pekka Rinne in that he's perceived in the market to be solid goaltender when he is anything but. He?s slow, he?s always fighting the puck and the only reason he stops so many pucks is because he?s a giant and takes up the entire net. Ben Bishop is one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL and that figures to bode well here for the Maple Leafs. The Lightning have plenty of appeal here due to its 4-1 record but there is a reason the oddsmakers made this game a pick-em to open and it?s because the Maple Leafs are so much better than their 1-4 record suggests.
Toronto has blown a late two goal lead over Chicago and a four goal lead against Winnipeg. They led the Wild 2-1 going to the third period before falling 3-2. They lost to Ottawa in OT while soundly defeating Boston. In other words, Toronto is so damn close to being a 5-0 squad and the early metrics support it. The Leafs have created 47 high quality scoring chances while allowing just 33. That?s a 69.23% in their favor. That is the second best mark in the NHL. The Leafs have rung a ton of shots off the iron and many other scoring opportunities have resulted in miraculous or fortunate saves. The Maple Leafs are losing games because Fredrick Andersen has turned into a pumpkin head. Toronto remains a team on the verge of exploding and they will also remain a very live pooch, especially at home like they are here.
Winnipeg +125 over DALLAS
OT included. Dallas is 2-3 with victories over Anaheim and Nashville but the win over the Ducks was non-deserving, as the Stars got dominated from start to finish. The high quality scoring chances in that game heavily favored Anaheim and so did total shots on net. Dallas is 1-2 in three home games thus far but deserves to be winless. The Ducks have weak goaltending and they are not scoring in bushels like they did last year. As the chalk in this range, they are not worth the risk.
+125Winnipeg as the chalk is risky too. The Jets are without question the most frustrating team to their fan base in the entire league and if they ever wake up and play to their capabilities, look out, because they have Stanley Cup talent. Winnipeg is loaded up front. They have dynamic playmakers and scorers. They have a sensational rookie that can dazzle. They have great puck-moving defensemen and a fourth line (Matthias, Lowry and Armia) that creates chances and defends well too. NHL GM?s dream of having two lines as good as Winnipeg?s top two that consists of Mark Scheifele between Drew Stafford and Patrik Laine and Mathieu Perreault between Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers. All six of those players are capable of 60-80 points plus. It is absolutely incredible that the Jets lose as many games as they do but that is something for them to figure out. For our purpose, the Jets are too live a pooch to ignore against so many teams in this league and the Dallas Stars are one of them.
Anaheim +138 over SAN JOSE
OT included. This price on the Sharkies here is simply unwarranted. San Jose is 3-3 while the Ducks are 2-3-1 so there isn?t much difference between them in points or the start to the season that they have respectively got off to. There is a difference however in the talent, skill and speed of these two teams and it does not favor San Jose. Furthermore, the Sharks return home from a five-game trip to the East Coast, where they went 2-3 with victories over Columbus and the Islanders both by one goal while losing to the Rangers, Pittsburgh and Detroit. The Sharks lost by three goals to both Detroit and the Rangers so we could easily be talking about a five-game San Jose losing streak here. Let us also not forget that the Sharks went to the Finals last year where Pittsburgh dominated them. Teams lose in playoff series all the time but when a team gets dominated in the fashion that the Sharkies did, it provides a blueprint on how to beat them. A speedy Detroit team beat them 3-0. Anaheim is one of the quicker teams in the NHL.
The Ducks are off to a slow start by their expectations but it is way too early to put anything into it. What we know for sure is that the Ducks have allowed just 22 and 19 shots on net respectively in their last two games. They?ve created seven PP opportunities twice in their last three games, which is reflective of the havoc they can wreak. In the Ducks loss to Dallas to open the year, they outshot the Stars, 35-20. Anaheim is a top-3 to-5 team that is priced like a mid-tier team here. That is incorrect. We get the better team plus a tag in a favorable spot.
Warriors -8
I know this is a big number for Golden State to be laying against what is perceived to be one of the few contenders in the Western Conference in San Antonio, but I'm not buying the Warriors starting out slow. I think Durant is a perfect fit for this team and while they did lose some pieces from last year, Golden State still has incredible depth. The Spurs are working in some new pieces and just don't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Warriors, especially with the game being played in Golden State, where the Warriors almost never lose. Let's not forget both games in Golden State last year saw the Warriors win by double-digits, including a 30-point blowout win in the first meeting.
Warriors -8?
The Golden State Warriors are absolutely loaded this season. They are essentially replacing Harrison Barnes with Kevin Durant, and the sky is the limit for them because of it. They put up gaudy numbers in the preseason and that will only carry over into the regular season opener against the Spurs today.
The Spurs are sure to take a big step back this season. They will be without Tim Duncan for the first time since 1996, and stalwarts like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are only shells of their former selves. Danny Green opens the season injured and out as well.
The Warriors went 6-1 in the preseason, scoring 112.7 points per game in the process, which was the second-best mark in the NBA. To compare, the Spurs only averaged 97.2 points per game. The Warriors gave up 101.6 points per game defensively, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game.
This 8.5-point spread is actually a reasonable price for the Warriors, and you won't find that often this season. We'll take advantage as the Warriors are 32-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. They're also 33-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.
Knicks vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -9?
Historically, on the night a championship team is getting its rings, it comes out a little flat and struggles to cover the spread, basically a 50-50 ATS proposition over the last 2+ decades. However, that wasn't the case last year when Golden State blew out New Orleans by 16 points as a 10.5-point favorite following the ring ceremony. New York has several new components after finishing 32-50 last season, including a new coach in Jeff Hornacek, who will be implementing some new facets to the offense, which will be a change from the primarily triangle offense that has been used since Phil Jackson became president of the team. The Knicks have several new players, including Derrick Rose, who played only one preseason game due to a court case, and Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings. Noah missed two weeks of training camp due to injuries. Cleveland added Mike Dunleavy Jr. to help with its outside shooting, and the rest of the team is mostly intact. There should be plenty of excitement in the city of Cleveland tonight to keep LeBron James and company from a letdown.
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On a position by position basis I'm also going to give the Indians right field and catcher although I can't make the argument for them with a straight face about the offenses. But I got quite a shock this morning. A friend of mine who writes for a major New York newspaper called this morning to ask my opinion on the series. As we were chatting he mentioned that a scout for one of the New York teams who he knows well now considers Roberto Perez the best defensive catcher in the game, even better than Yadier Molina. He says Perez is the best pitch framer he's ever seen. He told me to watch carefully tonight. Perez will steal at least a dozen strikes for Kluber. High praise indeed.
The Cleveland Indians are:
under is 7-0 in each of the Indians? seven Postseason games.
under is 6-1 in Kluber?s last seven home starts against a team with a winning record.
I really like the under in game one. Both starters have been incredible in the Postseason; Kluber has only allowed two runs over 18.2 innings, giving him an 0.98 ERA, and Lester has also conceded only two runs over 21 innings, good for a 0.86 ERA. Furthermore, the Indians bullpen has been dominant this Postseason, posting a 1.67 ERA, so I think this will be a lower scoring game. I know the Cubs have a powerful offense but the Indians were able to hold the number one offensive team in the Majors in the Red Sox to seven runs over three games in the ALDS, and the Blue Jays to a total of four runs in four games in the ALCS, so they have silenced some strong lineups. Good pitching trumps good hitting, and I think that will be the case in game one.
CLEVELAND +103 over Chicago
Chicago?s offense was the best in the National League and arguably the best in baseball during the regular season, posting a collective .287 xBA that easily led the majors. To put their lineup?s prowess in some context, consider that the Cubs? team xBA of .287?led by Bryant at .350 and Rizzo, Fowler, and Zobrist also above .300?was higher than any individual Indians hitter?s xBA. And, unlike many NL teams that reach the World Series, they have several appealing designated hitter options available for the four games played under AL rules in Cleveland.
In a big surprise, one of those designated hitter options may be Kyle Schwarber, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Cubs? third game. Schwarber, whose fantastic 2015 rookie season included five postseason homers, was recently cleared to return to action in the Arizona Fall League and is expected to be added to the World Series roster as a DH and pinch-hitter. It?s impossible to know how effective he could be following a six-month layoff, but Schwarber hit .246/.355/.487 as a 22-year-old rookie and his left-handed power bat could make Chicago?s lineup even scarier. And the non-Schwarber options at DH are plenty appealing too.
On the flip side, unless manager Terry Francona decides to get very creative defensively, the Indians? starting lineup will be without either Carlos Santana or Mike Napoli for the three games at Wrigley Field. Santana led the team in walks and ranked first among full-time players in xBA, on-base percentage and OPS. Napoli led the team in RBIs. And they tied for the team lead with 34 homers. Certainly the Rangers and Blue Jays would attest to the Indians having a good, deep lineup, but removing one of their top four hitters for three games would hurt considerably.
Ross will start at least twice for the Cubs while catching Jon Lester, but with the Indians using right-handed starters for at least five of the seven games and the DH spot giving manager Joe Maddon other options it?s possible that they?ll give multiple starts at catcher to three different players if the series goes the distance. In addition to catcher and DH, right field is a spot where Maddon may also switch things up depending on how much faith he wants to place in Heyward to snap out of a season-long funk. Cleveland has a good lineup, but Chicago has a great lineup with nearly endless depth.
Jon Lester vs. Cory Kluber in Game 1 is a great matchup between two of baseball?s truly elite starters, but it?s unclear if they?ll get a rematch later in the series because of how Terry Francona may opt to juggle the rest of the Indians? rotation. Joe Maddon figures to rely on all four of his starters as scheduled and avoid using anyone on short rest, which is a luxury Francona can only dream of with Carlos Carrasco out and Salazar on a limited pitch counts when he returns from the disabled list for his first action since September 9. Kluber is the biggest rotation key in the series, because he?s really good. The rest of the Indians? rotation is shaky, and he could be the only pitcher to start three times in seven games. If that does happen, Kluber would be pitching Game 7 on short rest against Hendricks, as the Cubs adjusted their rotation slightly to move Arrieta into the second slot after using him in Game 3 of both the NLDS and NLCS. Hendricks shut out the Dodgers for 7.1 innings Saturday, so he?ll go third on full rest.
If there?s an area where a compelling argument can be made that the Indians have an edge over the Cubs, it is in relief. Both teams bolstered an already strong bullpen by acquiring a stud left-hander at midseason, but Andreww Miller has looked unhittable throughout the playoffs while Aroldis Chapman has mostly struggled. There?s no guarantee that will continue and admittedly it feels odd to treat someone as dominant as Chapman like anything but a game-changing strength, but that?s how amazing Miller has been for the Indians.
Cleveland?s closer and second-best reliever, Allen, has looked more reliable this month than the Cubs? setup duo of Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, and the Indians have solid middle-relief depth in Shaw and Otero. To be clear, the Indians? bullpen is not obviously better than the Cubs? bullpen?and may not be better at all if Chapman pitches like he did during the regular season?but this is the one place where believing Cleveland has the upper hand is at least reasonable. With a 1.27 ERA, 144 strikeouts, and 11 walks in 85 total innings Miller is beyond ?closer? or ?setup man? labels at this point.
Two of the best, most-respected managers in baseball squaring off in a series that will provide both with ample opportunity to think outside the box. Maddon has vastly superior depth at his disposal up and down the roster, allowing him to mix and match at the bottom of the lineup, with pinch-hitters, and with relievers. Francona has The Hammer in Miller, which he?s used early and often brilliantly throughout the postseason, and the Indians? lack of rotation depth also provides him with a way to potentially leave his stamp on this series with a key decision.
Dave Roberts and the Dodgers talked a big game about exploiting Lester's throwing problems, but like most teams before them, the actual impact of their "focus" on the running game versus the Cubs left-hander was minimal. On a per-inning basis this season, 16 pitchers allowed more steals than Lester, whose pairing with Ross behind the plate often gives runners second thoughts. Lester has started 35 games this year between the regular season and postseason, and the sum total of his well-documented throwing issues has been 30 steals and 14 caught stealing. In other words, it hasn't made a lick of difference. It can, of course, if the opposing manager and baserunners commit to taking huge leads off Lester and actually use them for something beyond dancing around their original base. Cleveland has plenty of team speed, leading the league with 134 steals while being caught just 31 times, but the Indians attempted only five steals in eight ALDS and ALCS games. Rajai Davis was 43-for-49 during the regular season, Lindor, Ramirez, and Kipnis all have 20-steal speed, and late-season pickup Coco Crisp remains a threat to run at age 36.
Home field advantage certainly adds some weight on the Indians? side of the scale, but things still clearly tilt in the Cubs? direction overall. Chicago has vastly superior depth and quality in both the lineup and the rotation, plus far better bench options and one of the best defenses of all time. At full strength, the Indians? rotation might be able to keep pace, but Cleveland will be at an obvious starting pitching disadvantage whenever Kluber isn?t on the mound.
Of all the possible areas in which to break down this matchup, the three where the Indians could most credibly claim an advantage are relief pitching, managing, and base-running, but in all three areas some subjectivity is required to see the advantage because the Cubs are also very strong. Any formula that results in Cleveland winning this series seemingly relies on Francona pulling all the right strings, leading to the Kluber/Miller/Allen trio taking on a massive share of the innings in the hopes of equalizing some of Chicago?s depth.
Cleveland is absolutely capable of winning this series and anyone treating the Indians as worse than, say, a 40/60 underdog?big by baseball terms, but modest in other sports and most of life in general?is overstating things. This is a really good team, with a really good manager, a really good lineup, a really good defense, and three of the best pitchers in baseball. But the Cubs are a great team that?s equal or better in nearly every possible way. Add the in-game variance factor and it becomes closer than one might think.
We?re leaning Cubbies in the series but for Game 1, we are not about to refuse a price at home with Cory Kluber against Jon Lester. Perhaps we?ll be able to get an adjusted series price bet on the Cubs later. Those who have watched Lester over the past two years know there are a few baskets into which different teams fall when it comes to using his apparent inability to throw well to the bases against him. The Brewers, Reds, and Rockies have generally done it well. The Pirates, Padres, and Cardinals have generally psyched themselves out instead of Lester. The Giants and Mets have generally been too slow, old, or injured to run much against him anyway. Virtually every team has had at least one or two games in which they stole a base (or tried) at almost every chance?but only because they got hardly any chances.
Francona never managed a version of Lester with his quasi-weakness. There?s no inside info here. When Francona was the Red Sox?s manager, Lester allowed pretty low stolen base totals, threw strongly and accurately to the bases when needed, and generally had no major mental block, known or unknown. Now let?s take you back to August of 2015, which was the last time Francona, as Indians manager, faced Lester as a member of the Cubs. Lester pitched 8⅔ innings and nearly beat the Tribe 1-0, but ended up allowing the tying run before departing. Kris Bryant won the game with an opposite-field walk-off home run in the next half inning. The character of Lester?s effort was strange, though. He scattered six hits, a walk, and two hit batsmen over his long outing. It?s not normal, in today?s MLB, for a pitcher to allow nine baserunners in a start and still nearly complete the outing with just a single tally on the board. The strangest thing, however, was that Lester got away with allowing all those baserunners, and still held his opponents in check. Ever since the Wild Card game some 10 months before that one against the Indians, Lester wasn?t supposed to be able to do that. He was broken, the guy with the yips, the one whose only chance to keep opponents from stealing bases was to keep them off the bases altogether but here?s where it gets interesting. The Indians made zero attempts to steal bases that day. Terry Francona never ordered a steal against the most steal-prone pitcher in baseball. Then, after stroking the RBI single that knocked Lester out of the game, Carlos Santana stole second base off Hector Rondon the very first pitch after Lester.
Francona knew full well about Lester?s problems throwing to bases, but elected not to press the issue out of kindness or compassion. Few people in the game are more loyal or openly human than Francona, and he and Lester were close. It is unthinkable that Francona?s affection for his former ace will weigh the same way in Game 1 of the World Series as it did on that exhausting August day when his team was already out of the race. Francona knows Lester and he knows how to beat him. That aforementioned steal against Rondon was just a little message to Lester that said, ?If I wanted to steal, I could have?. Francona will hold nothing back this time around.
07:05 PM NHL [55] Arizona Coyotes +145
07:35 PM NHL [58] Philadelphia Flyers -150
08:05 PM NHL [64] Saint Louis Blues -210
10:05 PM NHL [69] Anaheim Ducks +140
07:30 PM NBA [502] Cleveland Cavaliers -9-110
10:35 PM NBA [506] Golden State Warriors -8.5 -110
08:05 PM MLB [952] TOTAL u6.5 -120 (Chicago Cubs vrs Cleveland Indians) ( J Lester/ C Kluber)
1 unit bet pays 173 ....betdsi line
--Peters in net just might spark this AZ team..Anyway, considering NJ's offensive woes, they don't deserve to be this big a favorite.
--Subban in net for Boston. He's been mediocre in the minors so far this year, and rotten in his only NHL start (2015)...and MN coach very mad at his team..
--SJ never been good in 1st game home off a long road trip, and never should be this big a fave vs Ducks anyway
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Philadelphia -145
I'll jump on the Flyers here at home...Back to back games, but this one comes at home after a tough loss to Montreal last night...Issue I see for Buffalo is Nilsson will be in the net...Sabers #2 will get a salty bunch of Flyers looking to attack the net tonight...Nilsson supports a 3.12gaa..Buffalo also struggles to score the puck as well..They have allowed 12 goals, but it wasn't because of Nilsson....He makes his debut tonight and the Flyers are one of the top scoring team in the league so far...Buffalo has some injuries right now and that hasn't helped them much...Number wise it's tough to call out the Sabers for much else..Only playing 4 games, doesn't give us much help number wise...Philly might go with Mason and he is coming off a solid losing outing....Neuvirth might get a chance to redeem himself however and facing the Sabers might be good for him mentally...Either way, I'll back the Flyers here at home to rebound off a loss..
Detroit -154
Given the venue and current play of these teams, the price could easily be higher. After a strong preseason, the Wings dropped their first two games, both losses coming in the state of Florida. However, they've since responded with four straight victories, outscoring opponents by a 15-5 margin. With the last three victories coming against the likes of SJ, NYR and Nashville, they'eve been beating some decent teams, too. Now, they step down in class to take on a struggling Carolina team which is playing the final leg of a season-opening 6-game road trip. Through five games, the Canes have allowed 20 goals. No other team in the East has allowed more. While the Canes have managed a couple of wins here lately, the Wings have dominated them here throughout the years, generally laying a much steeper price than they are here. I like their chances of staying hot for another night. Consider laying the wood with the Wings.
Senators vs. Canucks
Play: Under 5?
Ottawa comes off a 4-1 loss at home to Tampa Bay with a power play ranked #28. The Under is 5-2 in the Senators last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Vancouver's hot start has been keyed by defense, #4 in the NHL in goals allowed, but just #26 in goals scored. The Under is 5-2-3 in the Canucks last 10 home games.
TORONTO +111 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The Lightning will go with Ben Bishop here but in time, you will be seeing much less of this stiff. Bishop is this year?s Pekka Rinne in that he's perceived in the market to be solid goaltender when he is anything but. He?s slow, he?s always fighting the puck and the only reason he stops so many pucks is because he?s a giant and takes up the entire net. Ben Bishop is one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL and that figures to bode well here for the Maple Leafs. The Lightning have plenty of appeal here due to its 4-1 record but there is a reason the oddsmakers made this game a pick-em to open and it?s because the Maple Leafs are so much better than their 1-4 record suggests.
Toronto has blown a late two goal lead over Chicago and a four goal lead against Winnipeg. They led the Wild 2-1 going to the third period before falling 3-2. They lost to Ottawa in OT while soundly defeating Boston. In other words, Toronto is so damn close to being a 5-0 squad and the early metrics support it. The Leafs have created 47 high quality scoring chances while allowing just 33. That?s a 69.23% in their favor. That is the second best mark in the NHL. The Leafs have rung a ton of shots off the iron and many other scoring opportunities have resulted in miraculous or fortunate saves. The Maple Leafs are losing games because Fredrick Andersen has turned into a pumpkin head. Toronto remains a team on the verge of exploding and they will also remain a very live pooch, especially at home like they are here.
Winnipeg +125 over DALLAS
OT included. Dallas is 2-3 with victories over Anaheim and Nashville but the win over the Ducks was non-deserving, as the Stars got dominated from start to finish. The high quality scoring chances in that game heavily favored Anaheim and so did total shots on net. Dallas is 1-2 in three home games thus far but deserves to be winless. The Ducks have weak goaltending and they are not scoring in bushels like they did last year. As the chalk in this range, they are not worth the risk.
+125Winnipeg as the chalk is risky too. The Jets are without question the most frustrating team to their fan base in the entire league and if they ever wake up and play to their capabilities, look out, because they have Stanley Cup talent. Winnipeg is loaded up front. They have dynamic playmakers and scorers. They have a sensational rookie that can dazzle. They have great puck-moving defensemen and a fourth line (Matthias, Lowry and Armia) that creates chances and defends well too. NHL GM?s dream of having two lines as good as Winnipeg?s top two that consists of Mark Scheifele between Drew Stafford and Patrik Laine and Mathieu Perreault between Blake Wheeler and Nikolaj Ehlers. All six of those players are capable of 60-80 points plus. It is absolutely incredible that the Jets lose as many games as they do but that is something for them to figure out. For our purpose, the Jets are too live a pooch to ignore against so many teams in this league and the Dallas Stars are one of them.
Anaheim +138 over SAN JOSE
OT included. This price on the Sharkies here is simply unwarranted. San Jose is 3-3 while the Ducks are 2-3-1 so there isn?t much difference between them in points or the start to the season that they have respectively got off to. There is a difference however in the talent, skill and speed of these two teams and it does not favor San Jose. Furthermore, the Sharks return home from a five-game trip to the East Coast, where they went 2-3 with victories over Columbus and the Islanders both by one goal while losing to the Rangers, Pittsburgh and Detroit. The Sharks lost by three goals to both Detroit and the Rangers so we could easily be talking about a five-game San Jose losing streak here. Let us also not forget that the Sharks went to the Finals last year where Pittsburgh dominated them. Teams lose in playoff series all the time but when a team gets dominated in the fashion that the Sharkies did, it provides a blueprint on how to beat them. A speedy Detroit team beat them 3-0. Anaheim is one of the quicker teams in the NHL.
The Ducks are off to a slow start by their expectations but it is way too early to put anything into it. What we know for sure is that the Ducks have allowed just 22 and 19 shots on net respectively in their last two games. They?ve created seven PP opportunities twice in their last three games, which is reflective of the havoc they can wreak. In the Ducks loss to Dallas to open the year, they outshot the Stars, 35-20. Anaheim is a top-3 to-5 team that is priced like a mid-tier team here. That is incorrect. We get the better team plus a tag in a favorable spot.
Warriors -8
I know this is a big number for Golden State to be laying against what is perceived to be one of the few contenders in the Western Conference in San Antonio, but I'm not buying the Warriors starting out slow. I think Durant is a perfect fit for this team and while they did lose some pieces from last year, Golden State still has incredible depth. The Spurs are working in some new pieces and just don't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with the Warriors, especially with the game being played in Golden State, where the Warriors almost never lose. Let's not forget both games in Golden State last year saw the Warriors win by double-digits, including a 30-point blowout win in the first meeting.
Warriors -8?
The Golden State Warriors are absolutely loaded this season. They are essentially replacing Harrison Barnes with Kevin Durant, and the sky is the limit for them because of it. They put up gaudy numbers in the preseason and that will only carry over into the regular season opener against the Spurs today.
The Spurs are sure to take a big step back this season. They will be without Tim Duncan for the first time since 1996, and stalwarts like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli are only shells of their former selves. Danny Green opens the season injured and out as well.
The Warriors went 6-1 in the preseason, scoring 112.7 points per game in the process, which was the second-best mark in the NBA. To compare, the Spurs only averaged 97.2 points per game. The Warriors gave up 101.6 points per game defensively, outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per game.
This 8.5-point spread is actually a reasonable price for the Warriors, and you won't find that often this season. We'll take advantage as the Warriors are 32-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last two seasons. They're also 33-15 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points over the last three seasons.
Knicks vs. Cavs
Play: Cavs -9?
Historically, on the night a championship team is getting its rings, it comes out a little flat and struggles to cover the spread, basically a 50-50 ATS proposition over the last 2+ decades. However, that wasn't the case last year when Golden State blew out New Orleans by 16 points as a 10.5-point favorite following the ring ceremony. New York has several new components after finishing 32-50 last season, including a new coach in Jeff Hornacek, who will be implementing some new facets to the offense, which will be a change from the primarily triangle offense that has been used since Phil Jackson became president of the team. The Knicks have several new players, including Derrick Rose, who played only one preseason game due to a court case, and Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings. Noah missed two weeks of training camp due to injuries. Cleveland added Mike Dunleavy Jr. to help with its outside shooting, and the rest of the team is mostly intact. There should be plenty of excitement in the city of Cleveland tonight to keep LeBron James and company from a letdown.
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On a position by position basis I'm also going to give the Indians right field and catcher although I can't make the argument for them with a straight face about the offenses. But I got quite a shock this morning. A friend of mine who writes for a major New York newspaper called this morning to ask my opinion on the series. As we were chatting he mentioned that a scout for one of the New York teams who he knows well now considers Roberto Perez the best defensive catcher in the game, even better than Yadier Molina. He says Perez is the best pitch framer he's ever seen. He told me to watch carefully tonight. Perez will steal at least a dozen strikes for Kluber. High praise indeed.
The Cleveland Indians are:
under is 7-0 in each of the Indians? seven Postseason games.
under is 6-1 in Kluber?s last seven home starts against a team with a winning record.
I really like the under in game one. Both starters have been incredible in the Postseason; Kluber has only allowed two runs over 18.2 innings, giving him an 0.98 ERA, and Lester has also conceded only two runs over 21 innings, good for a 0.86 ERA. Furthermore, the Indians bullpen has been dominant this Postseason, posting a 1.67 ERA, so I think this will be a lower scoring game. I know the Cubs have a powerful offense but the Indians were able to hold the number one offensive team in the Majors in the Red Sox to seven runs over three games in the ALDS, and the Blue Jays to a total of four runs in four games in the ALCS, so they have silenced some strong lineups. Good pitching trumps good hitting, and I think that will be the case in game one.
CLEVELAND +103 over Chicago
Chicago?s offense was the best in the National League and arguably the best in baseball during the regular season, posting a collective .287 xBA that easily led the majors. To put their lineup?s prowess in some context, consider that the Cubs? team xBA of .287?led by Bryant at .350 and Rizzo, Fowler, and Zobrist also above .300?was higher than any individual Indians hitter?s xBA. And, unlike many NL teams that reach the World Series, they have several appealing designated hitter options available for the four games played under AL rules in Cleveland.
In a big surprise, one of those designated hitter options may be Kyle Schwarber, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Cubs? third game. Schwarber, whose fantastic 2015 rookie season included five postseason homers, was recently cleared to return to action in the Arizona Fall League and is expected to be added to the World Series roster as a DH and pinch-hitter. It?s impossible to know how effective he could be following a six-month layoff, but Schwarber hit .246/.355/.487 as a 22-year-old rookie and his left-handed power bat could make Chicago?s lineup even scarier. And the non-Schwarber options at DH are plenty appealing too.
On the flip side, unless manager Terry Francona decides to get very creative defensively, the Indians? starting lineup will be without either Carlos Santana or Mike Napoli for the three games at Wrigley Field. Santana led the team in walks and ranked first among full-time players in xBA, on-base percentage and OPS. Napoli led the team in RBIs. And they tied for the team lead with 34 homers. Certainly the Rangers and Blue Jays would attest to the Indians having a good, deep lineup, but removing one of their top four hitters for three games would hurt considerably.
Ross will start at least twice for the Cubs while catching Jon Lester, but with the Indians using right-handed starters for at least five of the seven games and the DH spot giving manager Joe Maddon other options it?s possible that they?ll give multiple starts at catcher to three different players if the series goes the distance. In addition to catcher and DH, right field is a spot where Maddon may also switch things up depending on how much faith he wants to place in Heyward to snap out of a season-long funk. Cleveland has a good lineup, but Chicago has a great lineup with nearly endless depth.
Jon Lester vs. Cory Kluber in Game 1 is a great matchup between two of baseball?s truly elite starters, but it?s unclear if they?ll get a rematch later in the series because of how Terry Francona may opt to juggle the rest of the Indians? rotation. Joe Maddon figures to rely on all four of his starters as scheduled and avoid using anyone on short rest, which is a luxury Francona can only dream of with Carlos Carrasco out and Salazar on a limited pitch counts when he returns from the disabled list for his first action since September 9. Kluber is the biggest rotation key in the series, because he?s really good. The rest of the Indians? rotation is shaky, and he could be the only pitcher to start three times in seven games. If that does happen, Kluber would be pitching Game 7 on short rest against Hendricks, as the Cubs adjusted their rotation slightly to move Arrieta into the second slot after using him in Game 3 of both the NLDS and NLCS. Hendricks shut out the Dodgers for 7.1 innings Saturday, so he?ll go third on full rest.
If there?s an area where a compelling argument can be made that the Indians have an edge over the Cubs, it is in relief. Both teams bolstered an already strong bullpen by acquiring a stud left-hander at midseason, but Andreww Miller has looked unhittable throughout the playoffs while Aroldis Chapman has mostly struggled. There?s no guarantee that will continue and admittedly it feels odd to treat someone as dominant as Chapman like anything but a game-changing strength, but that?s how amazing Miller has been for the Indians.
Cleveland?s closer and second-best reliever, Allen, has looked more reliable this month than the Cubs? setup duo of Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop, and the Indians have solid middle-relief depth in Shaw and Otero. To be clear, the Indians? bullpen is not obviously better than the Cubs? bullpen?and may not be better at all if Chapman pitches like he did during the regular season?but this is the one place where believing Cleveland has the upper hand is at least reasonable. With a 1.27 ERA, 144 strikeouts, and 11 walks in 85 total innings Miller is beyond ?closer? or ?setup man? labels at this point.
Two of the best, most-respected managers in baseball squaring off in a series that will provide both with ample opportunity to think outside the box. Maddon has vastly superior depth at his disposal up and down the roster, allowing him to mix and match at the bottom of the lineup, with pinch-hitters, and with relievers. Francona has The Hammer in Miller, which he?s used early and often brilliantly throughout the postseason, and the Indians? lack of rotation depth also provides him with a way to potentially leave his stamp on this series with a key decision.
Dave Roberts and the Dodgers talked a big game about exploiting Lester's throwing problems, but like most teams before them, the actual impact of their "focus" on the running game versus the Cubs left-hander was minimal. On a per-inning basis this season, 16 pitchers allowed more steals than Lester, whose pairing with Ross behind the plate often gives runners second thoughts. Lester has started 35 games this year between the regular season and postseason, and the sum total of his well-documented throwing issues has been 30 steals and 14 caught stealing. In other words, it hasn't made a lick of difference. It can, of course, if the opposing manager and baserunners commit to taking huge leads off Lester and actually use them for something beyond dancing around their original base. Cleveland has plenty of team speed, leading the league with 134 steals while being caught just 31 times, but the Indians attempted only five steals in eight ALDS and ALCS games. Rajai Davis was 43-for-49 during the regular season, Lindor, Ramirez, and Kipnis all have 20-steal speed, and late-season pickup Coco Crisp remains a threat to run at age 36.
Home field advantage certainly adds some weight on the Indians? side of the scale, but things still clearly tilt in the Cubs? direction overall. Chicago has vastly superior depth and quality in both the lineup and the rotation, plus far better bench options and one of the best defenses of all time. At full strength, the Indians? rotation might be able to keep pace, but Cleveland will be at an obvious starting pitching disadvantage whenever Kluber isn?t on the mound.
Of all the possible areas in which to break down this matchup, the three where the Indians could most credibly claim an advantage are relief pitching, managing, and base-running, but in all three areas some subjectivity is required to see the advantage because the Cubs are also very strong. Any formula that results in Cleveland winning this series seemingly relies on Francona pulling all the right strings, leading to the Kluber/Miller/Allen trio taking on a massive share of the innings in the hopes of equalizing some of Chicago?s depth.
Cleveland is absolutely capable of winning this series and anyone treating the Indians as worse than, say, a 40/60 underdog?big by baseball terms, but modest in other sports and most of life in general?is overstating things. This is a really good team, with a really good manager, a really good lineup, a really good defense, and three of the best pitchers in baseball. But the Cubs are a great team that?s equal or better in nearly every possible way. Add the in-game variance factor and it becomes closer than one might think.
We?re leaning Cubbies in the series but for Game 1, we are not about to refuse a price at home with Cory Kluber against Jon Lester. Perhaps we?ll be able to get an adjusted series price bet on the Cubs later. Those who have watched Lester over the past two years know there are a few baskets into which different teams fall when it comes to using his apparent inability to throw well to the bases against him. The Brewers, Reds, and Rockies have generally done it well. The Pirates, Padres, and Cardinals have generally psyched themselves out instead of Lester. The Giants and Mets have generally been too slow, old, or injured to run much against him anyway. Virtually every team has had at least one or two games in which they stole a base (or tried) at almost every chance?but only because they got hardly any chances.
Francona never managed a version of Lester with his quasi-weakness. There?s no inside info here. When Francona was the Red Sox?s manager, Lester allowed pretty low stolen base totals, threw strongly and accurately to the bases when needed, and generally had no major mental block, known or unknown. Now let?s take you back to August of 2015, which was the last time Francona, as Indians manager, faced Lester as a member of the Cubs. Lester pitched 8⅔ innings and nearly beat the Tribe 1-0, but ended up allowing the tying run before departing. Kris Bryant won the game with an opposite-field walk-off home run in the next half inning. The character of Lester?s effort was strange, though. He scattered six hits, a walk, and two hit batsmen over his long outing. It?s not normal, in today?s MLB, for a pitcher to allow nine baserunners in a start and still nearly complete the outing with just a single tally on the board. The strangest thing, however, was that Lester got away with allowing all those baserunners, and still held his opponents in check. Ever since the Wild Card game some 10 months before that one against the Indians, Lester wasn?t supposed to be able to do that. He was broken, the guy with the yips, the one whose only chance to keep opponents from stealing bases was to keep them off the bases altogether but here?s where it gets interesting. The Indians made zero attempts to steal bases that day. Terry Francona never ordered a steal against the most steal-prone pitcher in baseball. Then, after stroking the RBI single that knocked Lester out of the game, Carlos Santana stole second base off Hector Rondon the very first pitch after Lester.
Francona knew full well about Lester?s problems throwing to bases, but elected not to press the issue out of kindness or compassion. Few people in the game are more loyal or openly human than Francona, and he and Lester were close. It is unthinkable that Francona?s affection for his former ace will weigh the same way in Game 1 of the World Series as it did on that exhausting August day when his team was already out of the race. Francona knows Lester and he knows how to beat him. That aforementioned steal against Rondon was just a little message to Lester that said, ?If I wanted to steal, I could have?. Francona will hold nothing back this time around.
