07:05 PM NBA [502] Washington Wizards -9.5 -150 (B+2)
08:35 PM NBA [510] San Antonio Spurs -10.5 -110
08:05 PM NBA [1508] 1H Houston Rockets -5.5 -105
08:00 PM CBB [544] Florida State -1.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [4] TOTAL u5.5 -125 (Columbus Blue Jackets vrs Carolina Hurricanes)
08:35 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +165
10:05 PM NHL [14] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 +185
1 unit bet pays 160....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Nets have just four wins in their last 27 games
The Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall
The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.
Wizards are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Warriors are 0-5 ATS int their last 5 games overall, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games
Rockets are the #2 in 1st half scoring and Cha is 19th.
BULLS VS. WIZARDS
PLAY: WIZARDS -10
Big number here, but with good reason as Wade has a scheduled day off for Chicago and Butler got hurt on Monday and is unlikely to play this game.
The Bulls have been showing a little bit of white flag waving in games where they fall behind and each of their last eight losses have been by double digits. I?m expecting that unfortunate tendency too continue here as they?re going to be shorthanded and also playing without rest.
Washington is unaccustomed to spotting this many points but it?s a game they should be a blue to control based on the situation for visiting Chicago. I will look to play the Wizards minus the points.
Pistons vs. Kings
Play: Kings -1?
Detroit is a long way from home, its third straight road game on a long trip. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS playing on one day of rest, plus 1-6 ATS after a victory. This is the fourth straight home game for the Kings. After playing the Clippers and Warriors they face a struggling team. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. The Kings opened as a home dog and the underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -15.5
Golden State is crushing it this year as the top team in the NBA with a 32-6 record and 10-1 against the East. Golden State has won eight of 10 overall and 16-3 at home. Miami is the second worst team in the East with an 11-28 record having dropped their last two games and eight of 10. Miami is just 6-15 on the road and 6-12 against the West. Miami is struggling to score this year at around 98 points per game while allowing over 102 points a game. Golden State is tops in the league with 117.5 points per game nearly 12 more than they are allowing. Miami is 23rd in three points made per game and Golden State is 4th in threes made per game. Look for three point shooting to be the difference in the game as Golden State shows they are simply too tough at home especially when hot from three in a 20 point win.
Portland @ Los Angeles
Pick: Portland -2
The end of the Kobe Bryant era was not pretty for the Lakers and after a promising start, they have reverted back to being a poor team at 15-26. The Lakers are a woeful 80-207 straight-up in the last three plus years. They have won two games in a row, something rare, which they have managed just 21 times over the period. Of the 21 times, they have extended the streak to three games just five times, and own an ATS record of 7-13-1 ATS when trying to extend the streak to three games. Portland went through a brutal stretch of 11 games than left them at 1-10, but they seem to be working their way back by having split their last six games. One of those wins was a nine-point home win vs. LA just five days ago. I think they smell another one here, so play on Portland.
Milwaukee at San Antonio
Play: Milwaukee +9?
Milwaukee heads to San Antonio coming off a pair of losses at home against the Knicks and Wizards to move back to .500 on the season. We played on the Bucks Sunday but unfortunately, Giannis Antetokounmpo was a late scratch because of an illness and Milwaukee is not the same team without him. He is back tonight as the Bucks face a tough test but they are catching a very generous line here as this is only the second time this season Milwaukee has gotten nine or more points. The first resulted in an outright win over Golden St. San Antonio has won three straight games and seven of its last eight to maintain its one-game lead over Houston in the Southwest Division. The Spurs have also covered seven of those eight games as they have been winning big but the lines are now starting to catch up. They have covered eight straight home games which is a great contrarian angle to go against based on the overadjustments that are needing to take place. Milwaukee nearly pulled off the upset at home just over a month ago as it lost by a point as the Spurs increased their start on the road to 12-0 at the time. Milwaukee has covered seven of 10 games this season against the Western Conference and we can expect that to continue tonight.
Bulls vs. Wizards
Play: Bulls +11
Chicago won't have the services of Jimmy Butler and it's unlikely Dwyane Wade plays (doubtful), leaving them without their two superstars. The betting public is going to see this and jump all over the Wizards, but I think the line has been inflated to a point that there's some decent value here with the Bulls. Whenever a team comes in short-handed, we typically see those that are playing give an all out effort. At the same time, it takes away the focus of the opponent, who get the feeling that they just need to show up to win. We saw a similar story in the Wizards last game against the Bucks, who were without Antetokounmpo. They trailed 49-57 at the half and only won by 6. It's also worth noting the dog has dominated in this series, covering 17 of the last 22.
Heat vs. Warriors
Play: Heat +16
The Golden State Warriors have been a good team to bet against all season. They consistently have inflated spreads, and that's the case again here tonight as 16-point favorites over the Miami Heat. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS int their last 5 games overall, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games dating back further. They have gone 9 straight games without winning a game by more than 16 points coming in. The Heat have only lost one of their last 16 games by more than 12 points. They are better than their record shows, but they just don't have a good record in close games. Golden State is 1-10 ATS off 3 straight games where it made at least 47% of its shots or better this season. The Warriors are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The road team is 15-4-4 ATS in the last 23 meetings.
Chicago VS. Washington
Pick: Under 203.5
These teams have split a pair of meetings so far this season, the Wizards winning the most recent. Those games, which were both played at Chicago, produced 201 and 204 combined points. The O/U line for the November game was 199.5. The line for the 12/21 contest jumped up 10 points or so, closing at 209.5. Tonight's game, the first this season at Washington, has an O/U line which is roughly in the middle of those two previous lines. Given the Bulls current injury situation, I feel that it may prove to be a little high.
Both Wade and Butler are expected to be out. Playing their second game in two nights, Wade was already unlikely to go. But Butler's loss is significant. The Bulls had trouble scoring without him last night. He actually played, but may as well not have done so. Butler, who is/was dealing with an illness, would finish with only a single point in 29 minutes, going 0-7 from the field. He figures to be missed (again) tonight.
The Bulls last three visits here all saw the final score land on, or below the total. With the 'under' at 13-6 the last 19 times that Bulls attempted to avenge an earlier loss and also at 6-2 the last eight time that they played the second of back-to-back games, this one could well prove lower-scoring than expected.
Cleveland at Utah
Play: Utah +3
The Utah Jazz are now fully healthy and ready for a big home game tonight against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. They are highly motivated for a win here after losing three of their last four on a five-game road trip.
The Cavaliers are on a 6-game road trip over their own right now. They haven't started the trip all that impressively, only winning by 8 at Brooklyn as 13.5-point favorites and by 4 at Phoenix as 8.5-point favorites. I look for them to get picked off here against the Jazz.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including five straight wins. Utah beat Cleveland 94-85 as 6-point home dogs last year, and 102-100 as 5.5-point home dogs the year before.
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite this season. Utah is 61-35 ATS in its last 96 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread. The Jazz are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Salt Lake City.
Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Play: Northern Illinois +5?
NIU has won five of their last six as they enter this one against Kent State. The Huskies are playing fantastic defense and bringing it with them on the road holding USF to 48 and FIU to 53 in victories. They've already played at Minnesota among other places so they won't be intimidated by the Golden Flashes. Jimmy Hall will be a handful, but if you limit their other options, then this should be close. KSU has lost three of their last five and I think some are giving them a lot of credit for winning at Texas. This is a team that was outclassed by Oregon State who is awful. NIU is 24-14 the last three seasons against the spread in conference. Last year, NIU lost by 1 at Kent State. I think they can keep it close in this one too.
Syracuse at Virginia Tech
Play: Under 149
Good spots for a solid defensive effort from Virginia Tech tonight as the Hokies coughed up 104 and 93 in recent road games to NC State and Florida State. It was a classic case of falling in love with offense after Tech averaged over 90 ppg its previous five including an 89-75 win over Duke. Syracuse meanwhile went through a similar swatch of poor defense having allowed 93 to St. John's and 96 to Boston College. The Orange slowed down the pace of the last two games (61 and 62 possessions) and held Miami and Pitt to 55 and 66 respectively in two comfortable wins. Inexperience at the point guard position and high possession games forced the Orange to tap into their lackluster bench. Jim Boeheim had obviously seen enough and has essentially gone with a five-man rotation. It's more evidence that we will continue to see Syracuse play a more controlled brand of basketball. The game got played down some earlier this morning but at 149 I think we can still look to play it under.
George Mason vs. St. Joe's
Play: George Mason +4?
The Hawks bounced back from a 30-point loss to URI with a win last time out over Fordham. But the level of competition increases after the recent win - not to URI's level, but certainly a step or two above Fordham. I expect George Mason to be too much for the banged-up Hawks. St. Joe's lost guard Shavar Newkirk for the season, due to a knee injury suffered on December 30. Newkirk was the team's leading scorer, averaging over 20 ppg. He was also the team's second-leading rebounder and had the second most assists on the team. His loss leaves HC Phil Martelli with just three players averaging more than 5.7 ppg. While SJU can handle Fordham and the lesser teams on the slate without Newkirk, facing an improving George Mason squad is a different story. The Patriots have four players averaging between 18 ppg and 10 ppg and leading scorer and rebounder Marquise Moore goes unmatched in this one against a young SJU backcourt. GMU have won 10 of their last 12 SU and while I expect another win here, we'll recommend grabbing the points.
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -5?
This line opened with the Red Raiders at -4.5 and is going up, despite the fact that the public is all over No. 25 Kansas State. This tells you all the big money is coming in on Texas Tech and I couldn't agree more. You could argue that the Red Raiders should be the team ranked in the Top 25 and not the Wildcats, who don't have a single win over a Top 25 team.
While Texas Tech comes in off a 17-point loss at Kansas, that was a tough spot for them. They were in a prime letdown spot after knocking off then No. 7 West Virginia in overtime just 4 days earlier. Sitting at 1-2 in Big 12 play, this is a huge game for the Red Raiders, as there's a huge difference between being 2-2 and 1-3. As for Kansas State, this could prove to be a tough spot, as they come in off a comfortable win at home and have a huge home game looming on deck this Saturday against No. 1 Baylor.
The home team has dominated this series, going 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Each of the last two years the Red Raiders have won convincingly at home. They won 64-47 two seasons ago and 80-71 last year. Tech is also 35-19 ATS in their last 54 home games off a loss by 15 or more, while K-State is 10-22 in their last 32 road games as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference win by 10 or more.
Duke vs. Florida State
Play: Florida St -1.5
Surprisingly, it?s 12th-ranked Florida State that sits atop the ACC standings in early January. The Seminoles are coming off back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ? Virginia and Virginia Tech ? and are ready for their next ranked opponent, No. 8 Duke, on Tuesday night. Florida State will prove themselves early this season as they face six ranked opponents consecutively. Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton knows that his club must take one game at a time.
Florida State is led by dynamic sophomore forward Dwayne Bacon who averages 18.1 points per game. Junior Xavier Rathan-Mayes makes the Seminoles offense go. He averages 10.4 points and a team-high 4.7 assists a game. Florida State can fill it up averaging 86.6 points a game (14th in the nation) and Hamilton?s bench is deep. Eleven Seminoles average over 11 minutes of playing time per game.
For Duke, point guard Grayson Allen has returned from his one-game suspension and the Blue Devils rebounded from a loss to Virginia Tech with consecutive victories over Georgia Tech (110-57) and Boston College (93-82). Florida State will have to find a way to slow down leading scorer Luke Kennard (20.2 ppg), Allen (15.6 ppg, 4.6 apg), and freshman Jayson Tatum who averages 17 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Fellow freshman Harry Giles is slowly working his way into the lineup and adds depth to an already strong lineup. The bonus for the Seminoles is that they do get to play at home on Tuesday night.
WEST VIRGINIA -7 over Baylor
Baylor is off to a 15-0 start to the season and it?s no fluke with wins over Oregon, Louisville, Xavier and Michigan State. The Bears have played a tough schedule and will for the very first time in its history come into a game being the #1 ranked team in the country. 10 of Baylor?s 15 wins have been by double digits. It?s difficult to find any significant flaws with this 15-0 team but all that matters not because what sticks out to us more than anything is the odds makers disrespect for this outfit. One would have to go way back in the archives to find the #1 ranked team in the country taking back this many points.
We could go over the strengths and weaknesses and the strategies that these two teams will employ but it?s not relevant. What?s more relevant is the price tag attached to the dog. Obviously the odds makers are very aware that the Bears are undefeated and bring a top ranking with them. Obviously the linesmakers knew that a big number would attract a ton of money on the dog but it did not deter from from posting a -7 to open. There?s a good chance the number will drop by tip-off so we are going to wait until later to step in. West Virginia will be on our slate but we?re going to wait for the best number possible and will update this selection just after dinner as an official play. If we don't like the number, we can always lay off.
Northern Illinois +5? over KENT ST
The numbers say to bet Kent State. KSU has been solid at home this season, posting a 6-1 record while NIU is 1-9 on the road against its past 10 MAC opponents. Furthermore, the Huskies are 1-4 ATS over their last five games when playing a team with a winning record. The Huskies are also 1-5 ATS over their past six road games. The Golden Flashes have also beaten NIU 17 of the past 20 games. Those are some convincing numbers that make the home team look very appealing but our position regarding ?trends? remains the same. With 1000?s of games played every year, trends develop over time and some stick out more than others. To use this information to even remotely help you make a choice is pure foolishness. All those useless trends have zero impact on the outcome of this one. If the Golden Flashes win and cover here, it won?t be because they have won 17 of the past 20 games over this opponent or because NIU is 1-4 ATS over their past five road games. We recommend taking advantage of these useless trends by taking back inflated points and that is precisely the situation here.
The Huskies are coming on with five wins in its last six games. NIU?s only loss over that span occurred by just two points at Miami (Ohio). NIU freshman point guard Justin Thomas has four turnovers in 264 minutes so far this season, which is a major plus when being offered points. Furthermore, Kent State has played one of the easiest out-of-conference schedules in the country that ranks 314th out of 347 teams. Spotting points with weak teams in conference games is not a winning strategy and now for the first time in a while, we might be getting the superior team in this series but we?re certainly getting the team in better form and in a better state of mind plus points.
VANDERBILT +12 over Kentucky
Currently, the Wildcats sit at #6 in both the AP and Coaches polls. While Kentucky stands at 13-2 on the year, they are just 1-1 on the road, as they lost to Louisville by a three-ball as a 1?-point favorite and followed up that effort with a shellacking of Mississippi on their next road outing. In its last three games, Kentucky has been spotting an abundance of points to the opposition and it has absolutely laid waste to the likes of the aforementioned Mississippi, Texas A&M and most recently, Arkansas. However, Vanderbilt should not be painted in the same color as that aforementioned trio.
While the Commodores stand at 8-7 this year, they?re 6-1 at home in Nashville. The Commodores own the most recent win in this SEC series when they took down UK in Nashville in February of 2016 by a convincing margin of 74-62. At home this year, Vandy already owns wins over Chattanooga and Belmont and they went toe-to-toe with teams such as Dayton and Minnesota in away or neutral site games. This is a host that has played a stronger schedule than the visitor, as the Wildcats? strength of schedule ranks 49th while the ?Dores SOS sit at 23rd.
Vanderbilt recently lost on the road at Alabama while Kentucky has rolled teams at will, which again allows Vandy to come in off the radar and take back inflated points. Let us also implore that the Commodores own a stronger defense and are a better free-throw shooting team overall than mighty Kentucky, which opens the door for this team to hang around and potentially be a big problem for the 'Cats yet again. Vanderbilt is simply too good to be taking back points like this in its own barn and therefore must be played.
Baylor +6
Double-revenge for #1-ranked Baylor, which lost twice to West Virginia last year. But in 2015 they won outright here 87-69 as a six-point underdog. Plus in that season they were 3-0 against the Mountaineers. You don?t see many 15-0 teams getting +7 on January 10th historically. It could be tough for West Virginia to get points in the paint or second-chance offensive rebounds considering Baylor has 6-10 All-American power forward Johnathan Motley next to 7-foot center Jo Lual-Acuil. That duo combined is averaging 26.6 points and 16.5 rebounds per game. Surprisingly Baylor is #102 in the nation in rebounding averaging 38 boards per game and about even with West Virginia. They are #6 nationally though in field-goal defense and #4 in scoring defense, allowing 58.3 points per game. Plus #13 in the country in blocked shots. West Virginia is 9-0 at home and has dominated the competition thus far outscoring opponents on average 95.8-59.7. But they failed to cover a 13 ?-point spot against TCU on Saturday winning by a dozen. Baylor?s last road game resulted in a 76-50 blowout at Oklahoma and the Bears have already defeated Louisville, Michigan State, and VCU on neutral floors this season. Baylor 9-2 ATS on the conference road the past two years. Big game tonight in the Big 12. I will grab the +6. The Mountaineers not impossible to beat. They lost at Texas Tech last Tuesday and were knocked off by Temple in November.
Philadelphia -103 over BUFFALO
OT included. The Sabres have picked up points in three straight games with wins over the Rangers and Winnipeg while losing in OT to the Blackhawks in Chicago. That?s a pretty good stretch but we have our concerns. For one, the Sabres were badly outplayed in two of those games. A three-goal third period against Winnipeg on Saturday allowed them to escape with a fortunate 4-3 win, as they entered the third down, 3-1. Prior to its last three, Buffalo had one win in seven games and that lone victory occurred against Detroit, 4-3 in a game in which the Sabres were outshot in 43-22. Buffalo?s results over its last few games are much better than the performances while the opposite holds true for the Flyers.
With just one win in its past seven games, Philadelphia can be bought here for a bargain basement price and we?re not going to miss it. The Flyers will ice a fully healthy and extremely hungry team here. You see, Philadelphia is dominating lately but have very little to show for it. The Flyers have outshot and out-chanced their last four opponents and that includes going into Anaheim and outshooting the Ducks 55-25 but losing 4-3. Despite not allowing a PP goal against in four straight, the Flyers have just one win over that span because their goaltending is so shaky. Over their past 10 games, the Flyers rank second in the NHL in time spent in the offensive end but again, have very little to show for it. Philadelphia is in peak form and while it?s frustrating to not get wins, the efforts have not suffered one bit. We have maintained all year that the better team on the ice in hockey loses frequently because of weak goaltending or because the better team runs into hot goaltending. We can?t worry about that. Instead, we?re getting the superior team that is hungry for a victory and that will very likely outplay this host by a wide margin. In an evenly priced game, we?ll make that bet often and make no exception here.
Vancouver +160 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Predators are a team that quietly went about their business for years while putting together some outstanding seasons in the always tough Western Conference. They?re a small market team that has never received much coverage because nobody outside that region really cared about watching them. They have been a consistently good, small market model franchise that was always a tough out. They also played with very little pressure on them but things are a little different this year.
Projected to be one of the better teams in the league this year, Nashville is losing frequently while the players have rarely had to deal with adversity of this kind. They?re not responding. Nashville has lost six straight at home. They are well below .500 with 17 wins in 40 games and that?s after playing one of the easiest schedules in the league that ranks 28th out of 30 teams. The Preds are a mere 2-8 against top-10 competition and 8-14 against top-16 competition. Desperate for victories and taking a lot of heat from the local media, the Preds looked brutal and flat in at least two games last week. Nashville returns home from a three-game trip here under more pressure than they perhaps have ever had. Adversity reveals character and the way the Preds have responded to their perils reveals a weak-minded team that is not handling it well at all. The Canucks may not win here but at least they bring it every single night and put forth an honest effort while the same cannot be said for the host. Add the price on the Canucks into this equation and bit becomes a great value play indeed. Preds remain beatable and until they show us something different, they must be faded when favored in this range.
CHICAGO -1? +176 over Detroit
The Red Wings will play their sixth straight on the road in their third different time zone since December 29. The Red Wings also just played three games on the West Coast against Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose, which takes a toll on the best of teams of which the Red Wings are certainly not. Detroit did beat the Kings, 4-0 but were outshot in that game, 34-22. The Wings lost to San Jose and the Ducks by a combined score of 8-3 in their other two just completed games. Not only are the Red Wings up against it here in terms of scheduling, they are up against it in terms of talent too. Detroit is one of the more beatable teams in the NHL and they have one of the worst goaltenders too. Petr Mrazek will bring his fragile mind and .895 save percentage into this game.
Arguably, the three best Blackhawks? forwards this year have been Artemi Panarin, Marian Hossa and Artem Anisimov. All three were left off of the All-Star rosters and it?s mainly because three players per team is the maximum allowed. Still, all three will have a chip on their shoulder for sure and the Blackhawks are playing with one these days anyway. This is a heated rivalry that the Blackhawks will be ready for. These two have not seen each other since March of last year but much has changed since then. Detroit has regressed while the Blackhawks are just starting to get into playoff mode with three victories in a row and 10 victories in its last 14 games. The Blackhawks roll out three tremendous offensive lines and their defense has stepped it up to. This is one of those games in which the only thing that will prevent us from cashing is bad luck. Chicago will very likely outplay the Wings by a wide margin and they will also very likely bury a bunch of goals behind Detroit?s shaky goaltender.
Boston vs. St. Louis
Pick: Boston
The set-up: The 21-17-5 Boston Bruins continue their four-game road trip with a visit to the 21-14-5 St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night.
Boston: David Backes spent the first 10 seasons of his career (he captained the Blues for his final five seasons) before signing a five-year, $30 year million contract with the Bruins. However, St. Louis head coach Ken Hitchcock expects a warm welcome from the fans. "I'm sure he's going to get a big ovation. He deserves it," Hitchcock said. "He was a good player for a long time here. Some people are good players, and then there's good people. David's good people." Backes returned to the lineup after missing three games with a concussion and scored in each of the last two contests. The Bruins have played better on the road this season, going 12-7-5 away from Boston.
St. Louis: Blues are off a 4-3 home win over the Dallas Stars on Saturday night but have not won consecutive games for more than a month. However, the victory over the Stars left the Blues with a 12-5-2 record in games following a loss this season. Then again, that's not the situation here. St. Louis has not won consecutive games since a three-game winning streak from Nov. 26 to Dec. 1.
The pick: Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask is 3-2-3 with a 2.32 goals-against average versus St. Louis and considering the Blues' recent inability to put together consecutive wins, I'll take the price with Boston.
08:35 PM NBA [510] San Antonio Spurs -10.5 -110
08:05 PM NBA [1508] 1H Houston Rockets -5.5 -105
08:00 PM CBB [544] Florida State -1.5 -110
07:05 PM NHL [4] TOTAL u5.5 -125 (Columbus Blue Jackets vrs Carolina Hurricanes)
08:35 PM NHL [10] Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +165
10:05 PM NHL [14] Anaheim Ducks -1.5 +185
1 unit bet pays 160....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Nets have just four wins in their last 27 games
The Spurs are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 home games and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall
The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss.
Wizards are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
The Warriors are 0-5 ATS int their last 5 games overall, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games
Rockets are the #2 in 1st half scoring and Cha is 19th.
BULLS VS. WIZARDS
PLAY: WIZARDS -10
Big number here, but with good reason as Wade has a scheduled day off for Chicago and Butler got hurt on Monday and is unlikely to play this game.
The Bulls have been showing a little bit of white flag waving in games where they fall behind and each of their last eight losses have been by double digits. I?m expecting that unfortunate tendency too continue here as they?re going to be shorthanded and also playing without rest.
Washington is unaccustomed to spotting this many points but it?s a game they should be a blue to control based on the situation for visiting Chicago. I will look to play the Wizards minus the points.
Pistons vs. Kings
Play: Kings -1?
Detroit is a long way from home, its third straight road game on a long trip. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS playing on one day of rest, plus 1-6 ATS after a victory. This is the fourth straight home game for the Kings. After playing the Clippers and Warriors they face a struggling team. The Kings are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up loss. The Kings opened as a home dog and the underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -15.5
Golden State is crushing it this year as the top team in the NBA with a 32-6 record and 10-1 against the East. Golden State has won eight of 10 overall and 16-3 at home. Miami is the second worst team in the East with an 11-28 record having dropped their last two games and eight of 10. Miami is just 6-15 on the road and 6-12 against the West. Miami is struggling to score this year at around 98 points per game while allowing over 102 points a game. Golden State is tops in the league with 117.5 points per game nearly 12 more than they are allowing. Miami is 23rd in three points made per game and Golden State is 4th in threes made per game. Look for three point shooting to be the difference in the game as Golden State shows they are simply too tough at home especially when hot from three in a 20 point win.
Portland @ Los Angeles
Pick: Portland -2
The end of the Kobe Bryant era was not pretty for the Lakers and after a promising start, they have reverted back to being a poor team at 15-26. The Lakers are a woeful 80-207 straight-up in the last three plus years. They have won two games in a row, something rare, which they have managed just 21 times over the period. Of the 21 times, they have extended the streak to three games just five times, and own an ATS record of 7-13-1 ATS when trying to extend the streak to three games. Portland went through a brutal stretch of 11 games than left them at 1-10, but they seem to be working their way back by having split their last six games. One of those wins was a nine-point home win vs. LA just five days ago. I think they smell another one here, so play on Portland.
Milwaukee at San Antonio
Play: Milwaukee +9?
Milwaukee heads to San Antonio coming off a pair of losses at home against the Knicks and Wizards to move back to .500 on the season. We played on the Bucks Sunday but unfortunately, Giannis Antetokounmpo was a late scratch because of an illness and Milwaukee is not the same team without him. He is back tonight as the Bucks face a tough test but they are catching a very generous line here as this is only the second time this season Milwaukee has gotten nine or more points. The first resulted in an outright win over Golden St. San Antonio has won three straight games and seven of its last eight to maintain its one-game lead over Houston in the Southwest Division. The Spurs have also covered seven of those eight games as they have been winning big but the lines are now starting to catch up. They have covered eight straight home games which is a great contrarian angle to go against based on the overadjustments that are needing to take place. Milwaukee nearly pulled off the upset at home just over a month ago as it lost by a point as the Spurs increased their start on the road to 12-0 at the time. Milwaukee has covered seven of 10 games this season against the Western Conference and we can expect that to continue tonight.
Bulls vs. Wizards
Play: Bulls +11
Chicago won't have the services of Jimmy Butler and it's unlikely Dwyane Wade plays (doubtful), leaving them without their two superstars. The betting public is going to see this and jump all over the Wizards, but I think the line has been inflated to a point that there's some decent value here with the Bulls. Whenever a team comes in short-handed, we typically see those that are playing give an all out effort. At the same time, it takes away the focus of the opponent, who get the feeling that they just need to show up to win. We saw a similar story in the Wizards last game against the Bucks, who were without Antetokounmpo. They trailed 49-57 at the half and only won by 6. It's also worth noting the dog has dominated in this series, covering 17 of the last 22.
Heat vs. Warriors
Play: Heat +16
The Golden State Warriors have been a good team to bet against all season. They consistently have inflated spreads, and that's the case again here tonight as 16-point favorites over the Miami Heat. The Warriors are 0-5 ATS int their last 5 games overall, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games dating back further. They have gone 9 straight games without winning a game by more than 16 points coming in. The Heat have only lost one of their last 16 games by more than 12 points. They are better than their record shows, but they just don't have a good record in close games. Golden State is 1-10 ATS off 3 straight games where it made at least 47% of its shots or better this season. The Warriors are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. The road team is 15-4-4 ATS in the last 23 meetings.
Chicago VS. Washington
Pick: Under 203.5
These teams have split a pair of meetings so far this season, the Wizards winning the most recent. Those games, which were both played at Chicago, produced 201 and 204 combined points. The O/U line for the November game was 199.5. The line for the 12/21 contest jumped up 10 points or so, closing at 209.5. Tonight's game, the first this season at Washington, has an O/U line which is roughly in the middle of those two previous lines. Given the Bulls current injury situation, I feel that it may prove to be a little high.
Both Wade and Butler are expected to be out. Playing their second game in two nights, Wade was already unlikely to go. But Butler's loss is significant. The Bulls had trouble scoring without him last night. He actually played, but may as well not have done so. Butler, who is/was dealing with an illness, would finish with only a single point in 29 minutes, going 0-7 from the field. He figures to be missed (again) tonight.
The Bulls last three visits here all saw the final score land on, or below the total. With the 'under' at 13-6 the last 19 times that Bulls attempted to avenge an earlier loss and also at 6-2 the last eight time that they played the second of back-to-back games, this one could well prove lower-scoring than expected.
Cleveland at Utah
Play: Utah +3
The Utah Jazz are now fully healthy and ready for a big home game tonight against the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. They are highly motivated for a win here after losing three of their last four on a five-game road trip.
The Cavaliers are on a 6-game road trip over their own right now. They haven't started the trip all that impressively, only winning by 8 at Brooklyn as 13.5-point favorites and by 4 at Phoenix as 8.5-point favorites. I look for them to get picked off here against the Jazz.
Home-court advantage has been big in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, including five straight wins. Utah beat Cleveland 94-85 as 6-point home dogs last year, and 102-100 as 5.5-point home dogs the year before.
Cleveland is 1-8 ATS off a no-cover where it won straight up as a favorite this season. Utah is 61-35 ATS in its last 96 home games after failing to cover four of its last five against the spread. The Jazz are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Cavaliers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Salt Lake City.
Northern Illinois vs. Kent State
Play: Northern Illinois +5?
NIU has won five of their last six as they enter this one against Kent State. The Huskies are playing fantastic defense and bringing it with them on the road holding USF to 48 and FIU to 53 in victories. They've already played at Minnesota among other places so they won't be intimidated by the Golden Flashes. Jimmy Hall will be a handful, but if you limit their other options, then this should be close. KSU has lost three of their last five and I think some are giving them a lot of credit for winning at Texas. This is a team that was outclassed by Oregon State who is awful. NIU is 24-14 the last three seasons against the spread in conference. Last year, NIU lost by 1 at Kent State. I think they can keep it close in this one too.
Syracuse at Virginia Tech
Play: Under 149
Good spots for a solid defensive effort from Virginia Tech tonight as the Hokies coughed up 104 and 93 in recent road games to NC State and Florida State. It was a classic case of falling in love with offense after Tech averaged over 90 ppg its previous five including an 89-75 win over Duke. Syracuse meanwhile went through a similar swatch of poor defense having allowed 93 to St. John's and 96 to Boston College. The Orange slowed down the pace of the last two games (61 and 62 possessions) and held Miami and Pitt to 55 and 66 respectively in two comfortable wins. Inexperience at the point guard position and high possession games forced the Orange to tap into their lackluster bench. Jim Boeheim had obviously seen enough and has essentially gone with a five-man rotation. It's more evidence that we will continue to see Syracuse play a more controlled brand of basketball. The game got played down some earlier this morning but at 149 I think we can still look to play it under.
George Mason vs. St. Joe's
Play: George Mason +4?
The Hawks bounced back from a 30-point loss to URI with a win last time out over Fordham. But the level of competition increases after the recent win - not to URI's level, but certainly a step or two above Fordham. I expect George Mason to be too much for the banged-up Hawks. St. Joe's lost guard Shavar Newkirk for the season, due to a knee injury suffered on December 30. Newkirk was the team's leading scorer, averaging over 20 ppg. He was also the team's second-leading rebounder and had the second most assists on the team. His loss leaves HC Phil Martelli with just three players averaging more than 5.7 ppg. While SJU can handle Fordham and the lesser teams on the slate without Newkirk, facing an improving George Mason squad is a different story. The Patriots have four players averaging between 18 ppg and 10 ppg and leading scorer and rebounder Marquise Moore goes unmatched in this one against a young SJU backcourt. GMU have won 10 of their last 12 SU and while I expect another win here, we'll recommend grabbing the points.
Kansas State vs. Texas Tech
Play: Texas Tech -5?
This line opened with the Red Raiders at -4.5 and is going up, despite the fact that the public is all over No. 25 Kansas State. This tells you all the big money is coming in on Texas Tech and I couldn't agree more. You could argue that the Red Raiders should be the team ranked in the Top 25 and not the Wildcats, who don't have a single win over a Top 25 team.
While Texas Tech comes in off a 17-point loss at Kansas, that was a tough spot for them. They were in a prime letdown spot after knocking off then No. 7 West Virginia in overtime just 4 days earlier. Sitting at 1-2 in Big 12 play, this is a huge game for the Red Raiders, as there's a huge difference between being 2-2 and 1-3. As for Kansas State, this could prove to be a tough spot, as they come in off a comfortable win at home and have a huge home game looming on deck this Saturday against No. 1 Baylor.
The home team has dominated this series, going 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings. Each of the last two years the Red Raiders have won convincingly at home. They won 64-47 two seasons ago and 80-71 last year. Tech is also 35-19 ATS in their last 54 home games off a loss by 15 or more, while K-State is 10-22 in their last 32 road games as a dog of 3.5 to 6 points and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 off a conference win by 10 or more.
Duke vs. Florida State
Play: Florida St -1.5
Surprisingly, it?s 12th-ranked Florida State that sits atop the ACC standings in early January. The Seminoles are coming off back-to-back wins over ranked opponents ? Virginia and Virginia Tech ? and are ready for their next ranked opponent, No. 8 Duke, on Tuesday night. Florida State will prove themselves early this season as they face six ranked opponents consecutively. Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton knows that his club must take one game at a time.
Florida State is led by dynamic sophomore forward Dwayne Bacon who averages 18.1 points per game. Junior Xavier Rathan-Mayes makes the Seminoles offense go. He averages 10.4 points and a team-high 4.7 assists a game. Florida State can fill it up averaging 86.6 points a game (14th in the nation) and Hamilton?s bench is deep. Eleven Seminoles average over 11 minutes of playing time per game.
For Duke, point guard Grayson Allen has returned from his one-game suspension and the Blue Devils rebounded from a loss to Virginia Tech with consecutive victories over Georgia Tech (110-57) and Boston College (93-82). Florida State will have to find a way to slow down leading scorer Luke Kennard (20.2 ppg), Allen (15.6 ppg, 4.6 apg), and freshman Jayson Tatum who averages 17 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. Fellow freshman Harry Giles is slowly working his way into the lineup and adds depth to an already strong lineup. The bonus for the Seminoles is that they do get to play at home on Tuesday night.
WEST VIRGINIA -7 over Baylor
Baylor is off to a 15-0 start to the season and it?s no fluke with wins over Oregon, Louisville, Xavier and Michigan State. The Bears have played a tough schedule and will for the very first time in its history come into a game being the #1 ranked team in the country. 10 of Baylor?s 15 wins have been by double digits. It?s difficult to find any significant flaws with this 15-0 team but all that matters not because what sticks out to us more than anything is the odds makers disrespect for this outfit. One would have to go way back in the archives to find the #1 ranked team in the country taking back this many points.
We could go over the strengths and weaknesses and the strategies that these two teams will employ but it?s not relevant. What?s more relevant is the price tag attached to the dog. Obviously the odds makers are very aware that the Bears are undefeated and bring a top ranking with them. Obviously the linesmakers knew that a big number would attract a ton of money on the dog but it did not deter from from posting a -7 to open. There?s a good chance the number will drop by tip-off so we are going to wait until later to step in. West Virginia will be on our slate but we?re going to wait for the best number possible and will update this selection just after dinner as an official play. If we don't like the number, we can always lay off.
Northern Illinois +5? over KENT ST
The numbers say to bet Kent State. KSU has been solid at home this season, posting a 6-1 record while NIU is 1-9 on the road against its past 10 MAC opponents. Furthermore, the Huskies are 1-4 ATS over their last five games when playing a team with a winning record. The Huskies are also 1-5 ATS over their past six road games. The Golden Flashes have also beaten NIU 17 of the past 20 games. Those are some convincing numbers that make the home team look very appealing but our position regarding ?trends? remains the same. With 1000?s of games played every year, trends develop over time and some stick out more than others. To use this information to even remotely help you make a choice is pure foolishness. All those useless trends have zero impact on the outcome of this one. If the Golden Flashes win and cover here, it won?t be because they have won 17 of the past 20 games over this opponent or because NIU is 1-4 ATS over their past five road games. We recommend taking advantage of these useless trends by taking back inflated points and that is precisely the situation here.
The Huskies are coming on with five wins in its last six games. NIU?s only loss over that span occurred by just two points at Miami (Ohio). NIU freshman point guard Justin Thomas has four turnovers in 264 minutes so far this season, which is a major plus when being offered points. Furthermore, Kent State has played one of the easiest out-of-conference schedules in the country that ranks 314th out of 347 teams. Spotting points with weak teams in conference games is not a winning strategy and now for the first time in a while, we might be getting the superior team in this series but we?re certainly getting the team in better form and in a better state of mind plus points.
VANDERBILT +12 over Kentucky
Currently, the Wildcats sit at #6 in both the AP and Coaches polls. While Kentucky stands at 13-2 on the year, they are just 1-1 on the road, as they lost to Louisville by a three-ball as a 1?-point favorite and followed up that effort with a shellacking of Mississippi on their next road outing. In its last three games, Kentucky has been spotting an abundance of points to the opposition and it has absolutely laid waste to the likes of the aforementioned Mississippi, Texas A&M and most recently, Arkansas. However, Vanderbilt should not be painted in the same color as that aforementioned trio.
While the Commodores stand at 8-7 this year, they?re 6-1 at home in Nashville. The Commodores own the most recent win in this SEC series when they took down UK in Nashville in February of 2016 by a convincing margin of 74-62. At home this year, Vandy already owns wins over Chattanooga and Belmont and they went toe-to-toe with teams such as Dayton and Minnesota in away or neutral site games. This is a host that has played a stronger schedule than the visitor, as the Wildcats? strength of schedule ranks 49th while the ?Dores SOS sit at 23rd.
Vanderbilt recently lost on the road at Alabama while Kentucky has rolled teams at will, which again allows Vandy to come in off the radar and take back inflated points. Let us also implore that the Commodores own a stronger defense and are a better free-throw shooting team overall than mighty Kentucky, which opens the door for this team to hang around and potentially be a big problem for the 'Cats yet again. Vanderbilt is simply too good to be taking back points like this in its own barn and therefore must be played.
Baylor +6
Double-revenge for #1-ranked Baylor, which lost twice to West Virginia last year. But in 2015 they won outright here 87-69 as a six-point underdog. Plus in that season they were 3-0 against the Mountaineers. You don?t see many 15-0 teams getting +7 on January 10th historically. It could be tough for West Virginia to get points in the paint or second-chance offensive rebounds considering Baylor has 6-10 All-American power forward Johnathan Motley next to 7-foot center Jo Lual-Acuil. That duo combined is averaging 26.6 points and 16.5 rebounds per game. Surprisingly Baylor is #102 in the nation in rebounding averaging 38 boards per game and about even with West Virginia. They are #6 nationally though in field-goal defense and #4 in scoring defense, allowing 58.3 points per game. Plus #13 in the country in blocked shots. West Virginia is 9-0 at home and has dominated the competition thus far outscoring opponents on average 95.8-59.7. But they failed to cover a 13 ?-point spot against TCU on Saturday winning by a dozen. Baylor?s last road game resulted in a 76-50 blowout at Oklahoma and the Bears have already defeated Louisville, Michigan State, and VCU on neutral floors this season. Baylor 9-2 ATS on the conference road the past two years. Big game tonight in the Big 12. I will grab the +6. The Mountaineers not impossible to beat. They lost at Texas Tech last Tuesday and were knocked off by Temple in November.
Philadelphia -103 over BUFFALO
OT included. The Sabres have picked up points in three straight games with wins over the Rangers and Winnipeg while losing in OT to the Blackhawks in Chicago. That?s a pretty good stretch but we have our concerns. For one, the Sabres were badly outplayed in two of those games. A three-goal third period against Winnipeg on Saturday allowed them to escape with a fortunate 4-3 win, as they entered the third down, 3-1. Prior to its last three, Buffalo had one win in seven games and that lone victory occurred against Detroit, 4-3 in a game in which the Sabres were outshot in 43-22. Buffalo?s results over its last few games are much better than the performances while the opposite holds true for the Flyers.
With just one win in its past seven games, Philadelphia can be bought here for a bargain basement price and we?re not going to miss it. The Flyers will ice a fully healthy and extremely hungry team here. You see, Philadelphia is dominating lately but have very little to show for it. The Flyers have outshot and out-chanced their last four opponents and that includes going into Anaheim and outshooting the Ducks 55-25 but losing 4-3. Despite not allowing a PP goal against in four straight, the Flyers have just one win over that span because their goaltending is so shaky. Over their past 10 games, the Flyers rank second in the NHL in time spent in the offensive end but again, have very little to show for it. Philadelphia is in peak form and while it?s frustrating to not get wins, the efforts have not suffered one bit. We have maintained all year that the better team on the ice in hockey loses frequently because of weak goaltending or because the better team runs into hot goaltending. We can?t worry about that. Instead, we?re getting the superior team that is hungry for a victory and that will very likely outplay this host by a wide margin. In an evenly priced game, we?ll make that bet often and make no exception here.
Vancouver +160 over NASHVILLE
OT included. The Predators are a team that quietly went about their business for years while putting together some outstanding seasons in the always tough Western Conference. They?re a small market team that has never received much coverage because nobody outside that region really cared about watching them. They have been a consistently good, small market model franchise that was always a tough out. They also played with very little pressure on them but things are a little different this year.
Projected to be one of the better teams in the league this year, Nashville is losing frequently while the players have rarely had to deal with adversity of this kind. They?re not responding. Nashville has lost six straight at home. They are well below .500 with 17 wins in 40 games and that?s after playing one of the easiest schedules in the league that ranks 28th out of 30 teams. The Preds are a mere 2-8 against top-10 competition and 8-14 against top-16 competition. Desperate for victories and taking a lot of heat from the local media, the Preds looked brutal and flat in at least two games last week. Nashville returns home from a three-game trip here under more pressure than they perhaps have ever had. Adversity reveals character and the way the Preds have responded to their perils reveals a weak-minded team that is not handling it well at all. The Canucks may not win here but at least they bring it every single night and put forth an honest effort while the same cannot be said for the host. Add the price on the Canucks into this equation and bit becomes a great value play indeed. Preds remain beatable and until they show us something different, they must be faded when favored in this range.
CHICAGO -1? +176 over Detroit
The Red Wings will play their sixth straight on the road in their third different time zone since December 29. The Red Wings also just played three games on the West Coast against Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose, which takes a toll on the best of teams of which the Red Wings are certainly not. Detroit did beat the Kings, 4-0 but were outshot in that game, 34-22. The Wings lost to San Jose and the Ducks by a combined score of 8-3 in their other two just completed games. Not only are the Red Wings up against it here in terms of scheduling, they are up against it in terms of talent too. Detroit is one of the more beatable teams in the NHL and they have one of the worst goaltenders too. Petr Mrazek will bring his fragile mind and .895 save percentage into this game.
Arguably, the three best Blackhawks? forwards this year have been Artemi Panarin, Marian Hossa and Artem Anisimov. All three were left off of the All-Star rosters and it?s mainly because three players per team is the maximum allowed. Still, all three will have a chip on their shoulder for sure and the Blackhawks are playing with one these days anyway. This is a heated rivalry that the Blackhawks will be ready for. These two have not seen each other since March of last year but much has changed since then. Detroit has regressed while the Blackhawks are just starting to get into playoff mode with three victories in a row and 10 victories in its last 14 games. The Blackhawks roll out three tremendous offensive lines and their defense has stepped it up to. This is one of those games in which the only thing that will prevent us from cashing is bad luck. Chicago will very likely outplay the Wings by a wide margin and they will also very likely bury a bunch of goals behind Detroit?s shaky goaltender.
Boston vs. St. Louis
Pick: Boston
The set-up: The 21-17-5 Boston Bruins continue their four-game road trip with a visit to the 21-14-5 St. Louis Blues on Tuesday night.
Boston: David Backes spent the first 10 seasons of his career (he captained the Blues for his final five seasons) before signing a five-year, $30 year million contract with the Bruins. However, St. Louis head coach Ken Hitchcock expects a warm welcome from the fans. "I'm sure he's going to get a big ovation. He deserves it," Hitchcock said. "He was a good player for a long time here. Some people are good players, and then there's good people. David's good people." Backes returned to the lineup after missing three games with a concussion and scored in each of the last two contests. The Bruins have played better on the road this season, going 12-7-5 away from Boston.
St. Louis: Blues are off a 4-3 home win over the Dallas Stars on Saturday night but have not won consecutive games for more than a month. However, the victory over the Stars left the Blues with a 12-5-2 record in games following a loss this season. Then again, that's not the situation here. St. Louis has not won consecutive games since a three-game winning streak from Nov. 26 to Dec. 1.
The pick: Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask is 3-2-3 with a 2.32 goals-against average versus St. Louis and considering the Blues' recent inability to put together consecutive wins, I'll take the price with Boston.
