07:05 PM NHL [6] Pittsburgh Penguins -180
07:35 PM NHL [11] Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 +230
08:05 PM NHL [17] TOTAL o5.5 -120 (Minnesota Wild vrs Winnipeg Jets)
08:05 PM NHL [20] Nashville Predators -210
09:05 PM NHL [22] Colorado Avalanche +175
07:00 PM CBB [710] Kentucky -25-115
07:00 PM CBB [716] Pennsylvania +5.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [762] Iona -5-115
1 unit bet pays 253 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings
Play: Blue Jackets -117
Columbus has been cratering of late, thanks to some crap goaltending and ugly/lazy defense, and off an embarrassing 5-1 loss vs NJ Devils last time out, as they came out in that above mentioned game asleep at the proverbial wheel. Truth is they did not pace themselves earlier this season, when they went on a 16 game winning streak, and finally hit a yield sign, as their energy waned. Now I expect John Tortorella Jackets will be hell bent on bouncing back, and getting some of their lost respect for themselves back vs a inconsistent Red Wings side.
The Blue Jackets are 9-1 in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest and are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blue Jackets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Red Wings are 7-16 in their last 23 home games and are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Red Wings are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.Blue Jackets are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
BLUE JACKETS AT RED WINGS
PLAY: BLUE JACKETS ? 135
Okay, let?s get the bad news out of the way at the top. Columbus has not been winning much lately and the culprit has been shoddy defense and leaky goaltending. That has to stated right at the top, as I normally don?t like playing on teams in this form.
But I also like the idea of going against the Red Wings. Yes, Detroit has won two straight. But the Wings were extremely fortunate in both victories. They topped the Islanders in a game that featured some really fluky goals, and the Detroit game winner late in regulation was a classic. A shot from the left bounced off one Islander, then deflected off another and eventually found its way past the goalie. Cheap goal would be an understatement.
Next up was the weekend win at Nashville. The Red Wings were totally dominated in this game, but goalie Mrazek, who has not been good lately, had perhaps the best game of his career. Maybe he can do it again tonight, but I kind of doubt it and the Detroit offense isn?t exactly setting the world on fire these days.
One other piece of info worth including here is how spectacularly well Columbus has done when well rested. This team is 15-3 for the season playing on two or more days rest, including a perfect 6-0 when off a loss.
I think the brief break is just what the doctor ordered for Columbus and I expect them to skate well tonight at Detroit. I?ll spot the price in this one with the Blue Jackets.
My pick is on the Washington Capitals Puck Line over the Carolina Hurricanes in NHL action tonight.
Has anyone actually watched the Washington Capitals lately? Seriously, this team is exciting. I feel sorry for opposing goalies, because the Caps don't let up. Even though they're hosting a streaking Carolina Hurricanes team that won their third straight Saturday against the Islanders in overtime, the Capitals have scored four or more goals in 14 of their past 19 games.
Washington is 23-0-1 this season when reaching four goals.
23-0-1.
Now, Washington is at home, and make note it has scored first 38 times this season and is 30-4-4 when doing so, the best mark in the NHL. The Caps lead the NHL with 78 points after earning at least one point in 18 of their past 20 games. And one of those games was a 6-1 thrashing over this same Carolina team, on Jan. 23, in Washington. The Capitals have won two of three against the Hurricanes this season.
Take the Capitals puck line tonight.
Los Angeles -101 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. This is not a good matchup for the Lightning. Aside from struggling in every key area, (goals, goaltending, defense and special teams), the Lightning will now face the heavy-handed Kings. Heavy handed meaning that it?s difficult to take the puck away from the Kings. Now the NHL?s top possession team will face a struggling squad that can?t get the puck out of its own end. Despite some top-notch talent, Tampa?s flaws just keep getting bigger and more exposed. Take away Tampa?s top line, something the Kings are quite adept at doing, and the Bolts are hard pressed to score twice and that?s if the top line shows up. The Bolts are a bottom-10 team in so many key categories that includes save %, goal differential, and time spent in its own end. Furthermore, Tampa shows up about 50% of the time.
L.A. is coming off a 5-0 loss to the Caps on Super Bowl Sunday, which works to our advantage because the score influences the market. For those that didn?t watch that game, we?re here to tell you that the Kings dominated play and spent most of the game in Washington?s end. L.A. held a 38-20 shots on net advantage and a massive 64% puck possession advantage. The Caps buried the few chances they had while the Kings ran into a super hot backup goaltender. The chances of Ben Bishop being super hot are about the same as Dan Quinn being named Coach of the Week.
We cannot tell you what the result of this game will be but we can almost guarantee you that the Kings will have a huge territorial advantage. L.A. leads the league in Corsi For. They lead the league in fewest shots against per 60 minutes. Against Washington, Philadelphia and Colorado over its last three games, L.A. allowed 59 shots against combined. Throw out the 5-0 loss last game and the Kings allowed a total of three goals against in their previous five games combined (!). This is not a fair fight and the fact that the Bolts are favored here, albeit it slightly (at the time of this writing) is so wrong.
Carolina +175 over WASHINGTON
OT included. This one is interesting so let us set it up for you. Washington is the greatest show on ice and you can triple that sentiment when it plays at home. Washington?s last home loss was to New Jersey in OT in late December. To start the New Year, the Caps defeated Ottawa and Toronto but then they really caught fire. After defeating the Maple Leafs 6-5 on Jan 3 at the Verizon Center, nobody else has even come close. At home since that win over Toronto, Washington has victories of 5-0 over Columbus, 5-2 over Pittsburgh, 6-0 over Chicago, 5-0 over Philly, 6-1 over Carolina, 5-3 over Boston and 5-0 over Los Angeles. Add it up and the Caps have outscored a slew of playoff teams and Cup contenders over that span by a combined (and sick) score of 37-6. They are destroying quality opposition and taking names as they go.
Incidentally, and in case you missed it, one of those teams that the Caps buried was Carolina just 15 days ago on Jan 23 when they whacked the Canes, 6-1. However, a close look reveals that luck has played a major role in all those goals scored. Everything is going in for the Caps, thus some attrition is inevitable. Against L.A. on Sunday, the Caps were outshot 38-20 and won 5-0. In its 5-3 win over the Bruins, Washington had 22 shots on net while allowing 33. When the Caps beat Philadelphia, 5-0, they scored those five goals on 22 shots on net. When they beat the Hurricanes, 6-1, they scored all those goals on 24 shots on net. Overall, Washington has 26 shots on net or less in six of its last eight games while allowing far more than that. We also have to question whether or not the Caps want to continue scoring at this pace or even winning at this pace. They made a commitment to peaking at the right time this year so getting red-hot right now is detrimental to their quest. Production will inevitably regress and so will winning at this pace so the timing for a playoff choke is lining up again. Subconsciously, it has to be on every players mind to not peak too soon.
The Hurricanes have won three in a row off the break. They are a possession monster that is very capable of coming in here, playing their hearts out and catching the Caps rather disinterested. When you look back at the slew of strong competition that the Caps have played recently (Pitt, Chic, L.A., Columbus, etc), one could certainly excuse Washington for taking a breather here. The Hurricanes can and likely will catch the Caps not at their best and they should be able to hold a significant edge in puck possession based on the numbers this year.
Lastly, we have discussed paying attention to Pinnacle in the past. All morning, Pinnacle had the Canes +147 while every other sportsbook had Carolina taking back +170 or more. That was a good three hour window this morning that Pinnacle was giving away Washngton on the cheap. We?re not going to ignore that and we?re certainly not going to ignore that the ?Canes are too good to be taking back prices like this.
N.Y. RANGERS -1? +217 over Anaheim
With Kevin Hayes returning to The Rangers lineup here, this is New York?s best lineup and it?s a dangerous one. Hayes is one of these undervalued players that makes a big difference in terms of puck possession, something the Rags struggle with when Hayes is out. Hayes? returning allows Alain Vigneault to use Vesey with Stepan and Nash, a combination that was intact for 10 straight games from Oct. 22-Nov. 8 and had a 50 percent possession rating in 133 minutes of 5-on-5. The Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Mats Zuccarello unit is one of the league?s best and now the Hayes line (Grabner - Hayes - J.T. Miller) will be accounted for too. That leaves some pretty talented players to make up for the fourth line and while Hayes is no superstar, his presence in the lineup makes a big difference that not many will pay attention to. The Rangers are in line for a really spirited effort here and the Ducks are the perfect victims to attack.
Anaheim has the fourth most points in the West behind only Chicago, Minnesota and San Jose so they are considered to be an upper echelon team but we?re going to take a stance here and say they are not even close. The Ducks played some pretty good hockey earlier in the year but those days are long gone and while the results have not shown it yet, no team has regressed more over the past six weeks in terms of performance (not results) than the Ducks. Anaheim gets outplayed almost every game and appear to be going through the motions only. They have mustered a mere 16, 23, 26 and 27 shots on net in four of their last five games and it?s not like they were playing some defensive juggernauts (Florida, Tampa, Colorado, Edmonton and Winnipeg).
Anaheim can?t stay out of the box either. Only the undisciplined Jets have taken more penalties and that?s a major problem here against a potent Rags PP. The Ducks have five lousy wins in 18 games against top -10 competition and 10 lousy wins in 27 games against top-16 competition. This is not the first dressing room that Randy Carlyle has poisoned. He?s not a likeable guy at all and does not know how to communicate to make a guy like Andrew Cogliano for instance feel as important as Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry. The Ducks are tops on our fade list for the next while and it begins here.
Orlando vs. Houston
Pick: Orlando +11.5
The Houston Rockets may want to lay claim to being among the elite in the Western Conference, but they have certainly not played like it since the first of the year. They are 37-17, but that record was built early in the season as they got out of the gate at 26-9. Things have been much less impressive since as they are 11-8 over their last 19 games, but the overall record looks better and the line here is reflective of that. This is a team that out-scored opponents by +12.8 points per game in December, but since then they out-scored opponents by +2.5 ppg in Jamuary. So far in February, they have been out-scored by -0.5 ppg. This is not so much a play on Orlando as it is against Houston, who has become highly over-valued.
Nets vs. Hornets
Play:Nets +10?
The Charlotte Hornets aren't playing well enough to warrant being double-digit favorites over the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They have lost seven straight games coming in. I realize the Nets have also lost nine straight, but they have been competitive and have rarely lost by this margin. Six of their last seven losses have come by 9 points or fewer. The Nets and Hornets have already squared off three times this season, so this will be their fourth and final meeting. And the first three were all decided by 7 points or less. That trend likely continues tonight as the Nets cover this massive 10.5-point spread.
Nets / Hornets Over 217
These are the two coldest teams in the league right now...combined they have lost 16 straight games and it's all due to the defense...Neither team right now is doing anything on the defensive end and they are giving up triple digits nightly....The last win for the Hornets was against this Nets team 8 games back...i think they come out looking to outrun the nets here tonight....That could be a problem because the Nets will run and gun all night long...Nets will be on a back to back with a game on Wednesday night, but the Hornets have a day off before they play the Rockets at home...So I expect a high minute count for the starters for the Hornets...They should hit the 115 mark tonight without issue,...Nets avg about 105ppg and I think they get to that mark tonight also....It's really the defense and the situation I'll be playing here tonight...This will be the forth meeting between these two teams..They know what works more on the offensive end against each other...Bad defense tend to figure things out no matter who they play...Plus both teams can play fast and that alone has me liking the over by itself....I think we see a 116-106 type of game...Line is a tad low as I had this one 221.5
Nets vs. Hornets
Play: Under 217
The Nets have lost 9 straight games and come into this one having had yesterday off. The Hornets have lost 7 straight games and come into this one having had two days off. Both teams will have fresh legs and are looking to put that extra energy into the defensive end. Brooklyn has already been playing better on that end of the floor but Charlotte, so hungry for a win, really focused hard on that in practice as they prepared for this game. The Hornets know that fourth quarter collapses on defense have played a major role in their recent losing streak so they'll be fully focused on the defensive end for this one for all four quarters! The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games and, going further back, the under is 7-2 in Brooklyn's last 9 games. The Hornets most recent home game went over the total but, prior to that, Charlotte was 5-0 to the under in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-1 this season (and 19-7 L3 seasons combined) when Charlotte enters a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the under is on a 22-13 run in Hornets games. The under is 4-1 when the Hornets are a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and the under is also 5-2 this season in Charlotte's home games that have a posted total of 210 points or more. Looking at Brooklyn, the under is 6-3 this season in their games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the Nets, the past 3 seasons combined, are 24-16 to the under when off of a divisional game.
Tuesday play is Kentucky to take out their frustrations of losing at Florida by 22-points their last time out - their 3rd loss in their last 4 games by the way! - on the LSU Tigers tonight in Lexington.
LSU comes into this game a putrid 9-13 now, as they are currently riding a 9-game straight up losing streak that has seen the points work only 3 times in those 9 losses.
This is a Tigers team that is averaging just 74-points per game, and they just don't own enough offense to keep this game anywhere within reach tonight against the merciless Wildcats who will be ready to put a licking on them.
The last time these SEC schools met, Kentucky let it rip in a 94-77 revenge win last March.
This one turns ugly very early, as Rupp Arena gets treated to a beat down of epic proportions.
Kentucky by 30 points.
3* KENTUCKY
Illinois vs. Northwestern
Play: Illinois +6
The Fighting Illini are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Wildcats. The public is all over Northwestern in this spot, as they see a short line at home with a team that has a much better record. The key here is that Northwestern is not the same team as it was just a week ago. The Wildcats lost talented junior guard Scottie Lindsey to mono prior to their last game at Purdue and they lost 59-80. Lindsey not only leads the team in scoring (15.4 ppg), but he's someone who does a little bit of everything (4.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.1 spg). It's a much bigger loss than people think and it's going to take some time for the Wildcats to adjust. I know Illinois has been struggling, but I think they keep this one close and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.
Georgia +5.5
Florida won the earlier meeting back on January 14th 80-76 in OT but failed to cover the 12-point spread. This is a nice situational spot here for Georgia coming off back-to-back road losses to South Carolina and Kentucky but they covered both games easily losing in OT to Kentucky and by only 2 at South Carolina. In fact, Georgia is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this year and much of that credit goes to their Top 30 defense. Meanwhile, on the other side, Florida is off their biggest win of the season, a 88-66 beatdown of Kentucky. The Gators have had 4 straight blowout wins and covers and we'll "Sell High" on them here.
San Diego St at San Jose St
Pick: Under
San Diego State is a strong defensive team, 5-1 under the total after a victory, 7-0 under after a spread cover. San Diego State is the top-ranked defensive unit in the conference. In Mountain West games only, the Aztecs rank first in points allowed (65.8 ), first in field-goal percentage defense (40.0 percent), blocked shots (5.0 bpg) and second in steals (7.1 spg). Last Saturday, SDSU?snapped Fresno State's 13-game homecourt win streak and the nation's longest active win streak vs. conference competition with a 70-67 win. San Jose State plays its best defense at home, on an 11-5-1 run under the total here. The Under is also 10-4 in the Spartans last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Iowa State vs. Texas
Play: Iowa St -2?
Texas simply underachieves in big spots and ISU is off a win at Kansas, and we all know how hard it is to win at Kansas. Many say this is a letdown spot, but Iowa State needed a jump start and an RPI bump to get the ball rolling for the big dance and seeding both there and in a conference tourney.
Texas is 7-1 at home against the Cyclones and no doubt playing a better brand of basketball down the stretch including a close loss to West Virginia, but I am still not convinced as Iowa State is a beast. That said you do not hear much about the ISU defense but it is better this year than most, forced 21 turnovers out of Kansas on the road. While not be a runaway win, Iowa State is the better team and the with 3-point capability and rebounding edge, I will take them and lay the 3. To take note the Longhorns in their last 5 games have shot 58% from the free throw stripe and that is a huge down the stretch in terms of possessions.
Central Michigan +8?
This is a clear letdown spot for the Ohio Bobcats. They just beat the best team in the MAC in Akron 85-70 at home on Saturday as 1.5-point underdogs. Now they are being priced like they are the best team in the MAC as 8.5-point favorites here over Central Michigan. But the Chippewas are no pushovers, winning 4 of their last 5 games coming in. And they have had the bobcats' number, going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last 3 meetings. They won 72-49 at home over Ohio in their most recent meeting last season. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Bobcats are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Butler vs. Marquette
Play: Butler +1?
These two teams met back in Butler on 1/16 and the Bulldogs erased a 18-point halftime deficit in a 88-80 win and cover as a 7.5-point favorite. I think most are going to jump on Marquette here, expecting they will get their revenge at home and a lot of those same people remember them recently winning at home over Villanova. I just don't think that's going to be the case. The Golden Flashes are an average team and more than anything, I believe they are catching Butler at the wrong time.
The Bulldogs are going to be all business here, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak, where they dropped games at home against Georgetown as a 8.5-point favorite and Creighton as a 7-point favorite. That is also playing into this line, as Butler should be favored here. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss. Marquette is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 as a home favorite and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing their previous game on the road.
In the Sights, Tuesday NCAA?
A couple of strong handicapping principles line up in the same direction in the SEC tonight, and with more than fair market value out there it will be #708 South Carolina (6:30 Eastern) in play, with plenty of -6.5 available in the Tuesday morning trading and this one good to -7.
Here is a subtle notion that has worked throughout the ages and will likely continue ? look to play against a team that just lost a game that they were really going after, especially if they lost as a favorite. Part of that is the natural letdown notion, but even more significant is what it tells you about their strength ? if a team is pointing heavily towards a game and has such tools that the markets project them to win, yet loses anyway, that team may well be over-rated. Such is the case with Alabama. The Crimson Tide got embarrassed 84-64 in their first showdown with Auburn two weeks ago, and there was no question about how much focus was going into Saturday?s rematch as I did the pregame reading. Yet Bama was not even in the hunt, trailing by 12 with 2:30 remaining before making the final a more respectable 82-77.
Now for the second part, which brings some basketball science into play ? there is a dead zone out there for short road underdogs that will struggle to score, the notion being that if the line is in the ballpark and the favorite has the lead, the underdog will have to find ways to score quickly to rally. The Crimson Tide lack options on that front tonight. It is the #9 offense (SEC play) having to find cracks in the #1 defense, and there may be problems simply getting shots off, much less making them -
Bama ?O? SC ?D?
TO% #13 #1
Steal% #14 #1
And when shots are attempted ?
Bama ?O? SC ?D?
Eff FG% #13 #1
The Gamecocks aren?t pretty with the ball, but in this range they don?t have to be ? it is the defense choking off the Crimson Tide that can build out a bigger margin than the market projections.
MSU in far better form right now, any insight on this one?
I don't know what drove the morning markets higher, and there will be some +5 going into pocket soon, although the current Pinny shading has me holding out hopes for a 5.5. One of the emerging February themes that folks should be tracking is the Michigan State depth - the Spartans bench has out-scored the opponent's reserves 64-24 over the last two games, in each of them Cassius Winston scoring more points than the other team's bench by himself. That was a big factor in the first meeting, and it is not easy for the Wolverines to get a margin here because of that issue, unless they shoot exceptionally well. Which, of course, they are capable of, but their defense is dead last in the Big 10 and because of the lack of size and depth may not get much better the rest of the way.
do you see value on Syracuse?
That one is a real conundrum because of the timing - there is an Inside/Out that tells us that Syracuse may have peaked in that second half vs. Virginia, which might lead to some regression, while Clemson may have completely bottomed out at FSU, a game that broke so wide open that only one starter for either team was on the court longer than 26 minutes. But the markets are also betting the game that way, which is why the price has risen to where it is. The Tigers should obviously play with more spirit here than on Sunday, but a terrible defense (#13 in the ACC) may not be fixable at this stage, and in this price range their inconsistent FT shooting an also be a negative. The timing scares me, but if +5 shows I may peel off a bit of the Orange.
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Play: Over 151?
A pair of struggling MAC teams play as Toledo hosts Eastern Michigan. The Rockets have lost three straight and six of their last eight entering this one. The problem has been a defense that has allowed every conference opponent but one to score 70 points or better with four of them shooting 50% or better from the field. They've got offensive weapons so they can keep up a bit, but still it makes it harder. The Eagles have lost four of five entering this one and it's because of a struggling offense. A lot was expected from EMU because of their returning starters. The Eagles have had their own defensive issues. I think this one is close which means fouls come into play and that helps out total.
Vanderbilt +4 over ARKANSAS
Arkansas has struggled lately and nothing suggests those woes won't continue. The Razorbacks were awful against last place Missouri on Saturday, falling 83-78 as an eight-point favorite. The Hogs turned the ball over 17 times against Mizzou, which lead to 19-points for the Tigers. A loss like that will not endear you to the selection committee and now the pressure is on Arkansas to secure a place in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas leads this all time series with Vanderbilt 22-11 and they've won four straight but so what. That will only motivate the dog more. The Hogs have more luck than substance and those razor thin margins often even out over time. Arkansas has been playing with fire when it comes to close contests. They've won six straight games that were decided by four points or less with one those victories being an improbable 1-point comeback over the Commodores just two weeks ago.
Vanderbilt comes into this one with a 11-12 record and sit 12th in the SEC. While its wins and losses my not look spectacular, a closer look shows us the Commodores have played the 15th toughest schedule in all of college hoops. More impressive yet is their recent form against some of the top teams in the country. Vandy has wins over Iowa State (another tough unranked team that's played a brutal schedule) and they went to Gainesville and beat the #17 ranked Gators outright as an 11? point pooch. These two teams played just a few week ago with the Commodores blowing a 15-point lead late in the second half. Vandy was the much better team on the floor that night but just because the Razorbacks took that game in Nashville doesn't guarantee the Hogs a victory tonight.
Vandy rebounded from that heartbreaking loss January 24th by winning their next two games, which included a 14-point victory over Texas A&M as a +4? road dog. Vandy has five guys that can stretch the floor and are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country with 10.1 triples per game. Even 7'1? center Luke Kornet can drain it from downtown and is shooting .382 from beyond the arc. Kornet is actually the NCAA's all time leading 3-point-shooting 7-footer. Winning on the road in this league is always tough but Vandy has a score to settle here for being the Hogs whipping boys for far too long. It?s one thing to get buried by the same team if you are inferior but that is not the case right now. We have two very misleading records going up against one another and we trust we?re getting the hungrier and superior team plus points. Arkansas is not good enough to be a 17-6 team.
Utah St at Colorado St
Play: Under 140.5
I've played Utah State under the total a handful of times over the last few weeks and have been rewarded with a few easy winners. The Aggies have actually gone under in six straight games based on the closing number thanks to some improved defense and a moderate pace. During that stretch, USU allowed 67.7 ppg and four of the six had 65 possessions or less. One such game was the first meeting between Utah State and tonight's opponent Colorado State. The Rams prevailed 64-56 as the game went well under the total of 142. CSU is a game out of first place in the Mountain West after winning four of five. The Rams are one of the slower teams in the MWC, particiularly on offense as Larry Eustachy has really preached patience. "It's the way you should play basketball," Eustachy said. "You want the other team to guard you, break them down, take a good shot, and then you don't spend as much time on defense." The Mountain West can be a tough nut to crack for totals bettors. There are a lot of games that appear headed for the low-130's only to land north of 150. Fouls, defensive lapses, hot shooting -- this league has is all and some. That said, I think tonight's game should play out similar to the grinder we saw in the first meeting. Play it under.
Oskeim Sports
San Diego State at San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +7.5
San Jose State applies to a very good 33-9 ATS system that invests on certain underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win over a conference opponent, provided they are matched up against a conference foe off a close road win by three points or less. The Spartans are coming off back-to-back wins over UNLV (76-72) and New Mexico (78-68) and are playing with legitimate revenge after suffering a 76-61 loss at San Diego State earlier this season. And, San Jose State is more than capable of pulling the upset tonight as the Aztecs are just 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS on the road and have a huge revenge game on deck against Nevada.
The Spartans already own upset wins over Washington State, Idaho, Fresno State, Air Force and the aforementioned Lobos. Finally, my math model only favors the Aztecs by four points and forward Zylan Cheatham, who is averaging 10.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, is questionable with a foot injury. With San Diego State standing at a money-burning 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points, grab the points with the Spartans and invest with confidence.
Florida at Georgia
Play: Florida -5.5
Since dropping back-to-back heartbreakers against both South Carolina and Vanderbilt in games they combined to average under 60 points per game, the Gators have flipped the switch and been the most impressive team in the SEC since. In destroying the Wildcats by 22 points, Florida has scored an average of 92.8 points per over its L/4 games and played a suffocating brand of defense in allowing an average of just 60.1 points per game. That +32.7 differential now finds them only behind the Gamecocks in the conference standings.
The Bulldogs are no doubt a better team than their 11-8 overall record indicates with it 7-2 ATS on the true road and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. However, the team was just put through the ringer both physically and emotionally and might not have much left in the tank right now to compete against a Gators squad currently firing on all cylinders. With Florida 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the favorite 5-2 ATS in the last seven, I expect Florida to not suffer a letdown and hand Georgia yet another tough defeat.
Butler @ Marquette
Pick: Butler +1.5
After winning seven of eight games that included wins over No. 15 Xavier and top-ranked Villanova, 16th-ranked Butler went cold. The Bulldogs have dropped two straight, losing by four to Georgetown and dropping a 76-67 decision to No. 22 Creighton last Tuesday. Now, Butler head coach Chris Holtmann?s team has had a week to prepare for a road game at Marquette on Tuesday night.
Butler has a win over the Golden Eagles already this season having beaten Marquette 88-80 on Jan. 16. Leading scorer Kelan Martin scored 22 points to lead the Bulldogs while Kamar Baldwin added 18 and Kethan Savage scored 17 coming off the bench. The Bulldogs shot 53 percent from the floor and will need to do so again.
The Bulldogs will have to do their best to slow down Marquette guard Markus Howard. The 5-foot-11 freshman averages 12 points a game and led all scorers with 26 in the first meeting with Butler. Holtmann will also have to come up with a way to deal with the four-guard lineup of Marquette. Martin is Butler?s best player and averages 16.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, both tops for the Bulldogs. Andrew Chrabascz (6-7, 230) is a big body that averages 11.2 points and 4.9 rebounds and Holtmann can go nine deep in his bench. Butler will likely need all nine as Marquette is one of the top scoring teams in the nation averaging 83.7 points per game (18th nationally).
Syracuse vs. Clemson
Pick: Clemson
These teams are off very different results on Saturday and I'm going to use that to our advantage by exploiting a line that seems too low. Syracuse is coming off a big upset of Virginia (at the Carrier Dome) where they were 4.5-point underdogs. Not only was it their fourth win in a row overall, it was their third straight as either a dog or a pick 'em. Meanwhile, a day after the Orange upset the Hoos, Clemson got humiliated down in Tallahassee. They lost 109-61 to Florida State, a result that I'm sure will have players motivated tonight. I'll lay the short number with the home team here.
This being a road game for Syracuse makes a world of difference. While they are 14-2 SU at home this season, they are a combined 1-7 SU in road/neutral site games. They've been outscored - on average - by a double digit margin as well. The lone SU (and ATS) win away from home this year came at NC State last Wednesday. However, that win required overtime and saw the Orange trail by as many as 16 in the second half. It was largely owed to your typical NC State gagjob.
ACC play hasn't gone all that well for Clemson. Their record is only 3-7 SU, however, they had won B2B games prior to the debacle at FSU. Many of the losses have been close. Four have been by five points or less, in fact. I'm simply willing to "sell high" on one team (Syracuse) and "buy low" on the other (Clemson) here as something is bound to go right for the latter here. Syracuse's road woes are a concern plus Clemson still averages over 80 PPG here in Death Valley.
07:35 PM NHL [11] Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5 +230
08:05 PM NHL [17] TOTAL o5.5 -120 (Minnesota Wild vrs Winnipeg Jets)
08:05 PM NHL [20] Nashville Predators -210
09:05 PM NHL [22] Colorado Avalanche +175
07:00 PM CBB [710] Kentucky -25-115
07:00 PM CBB [716] Pennsylvania +5.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB Added Game [762] Iona -5-115
1 unit bet pays 253 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings
Play: Blue Jackets -117
Columbus has been cratering of late, thanks to some crap goaltending and ugly/lazy defense, and off an embarrassing 5-1 loss vs NJ Devils last time out, as they came out in that above mentioned game asleep at the proverbial wheel. Truth is they did not pace themselves earlier this season, when they went on a 16 game winning streak, and finally hit a yield sign, as their energy waned. Now I expect John Tortorella Jackets will be hell bent on bouncing back, and getting some of their lost respect for themselves back vs a inconsistent Red Wings side.
The Blue Jackets are 9-1 in their last 10 games playing on 2 days rest and are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game.Blue Jackets are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Red Wings are 7-16 in their last 23 home games and are 2-8 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Red Wings are 0-6 in their last 6 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.Blue Jackets are 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
BLUE JACKETS AT RED WINGS
PLAY: BLUE JACKETS ? 135
Okay, let?s get the bad news out of the way at the top. Columbus has not been winning much lately and the culprit has been shoddy defense and leaky goaltending. That has to stated right at the top, as I normally don?t like playing on teams in this form.
But I also like the idea of going against the Red Wings. Yes, Detroit has won two straight. But the Wings were extremely fortunate in both victories. They topped the Islanders in a game that featured some really fluky goals, and the Detroit game winner late in regulation was a classic. A shot from the left bounced off one Islander, then deflected off another and eventually found its way past the goalie. Cheap goal would be an understatement.
Next up was the weekend win at Nashville. The Red Wings were totally dominated in this game, but goalie Mrazek, who has not been good lately, had perhaps the best game of his career. Maybe he can do it again tonight, but I kind of doubt it and the Detroit offense isn?t exactly setting the world on fire these days.
One other piece of info worth including here is how spectacularly well Columbus has done when well rested. This team is 15-3 for the season playing on two or more days rest, including a perfect 6-0 when off a loss.
I think the brief break is just what the doctor ordered for Columbus and I expect them to skate well tonight at Detroit. I?ll spot the price in this one with the Blue Jackets.
My pick is on the Washington Capitals Puck Line over the Carolina Hurricanes in NHL action tonight.
Has anyone actually watched the Washington Capitals lately? Seriously, this team is exciting. I feel sorry for opposing goalies, because the Caps don't let up. Even though they're hosting a streaking Carolina Hurricanes team that won their third straight Saturday against the Islanders in overtime, the Capitals have scored four or more goals in 14 of their past 19 games.
Washington is 23-0-1 this season when reaching four goals.
23-0-1.
Now, Washington is at home, and make note it has scored first 38 times this season and is 30-4-4 when doing so, the best mark in the NHL. The Caps lead the NHL with 78 points after earning at least one point in 18 of their past 20 games. And one of those games was a 6-1 thrashing over this same Carolina team, on Jan. 23, in Washington. The Capitals have won two of three against the Hurricanes this season.
Take the Capitals puck line tonight.
Los Angeles -101 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. This is not a good matchup for the Lightning. Aside from struggling in every key area, (goals, goaltending, defense and special teams), the Lightning will now face the heavy-handed Kings. Heavy handed meaning that it?s difficult to take the puck away from the Kings. Now the NHL?s top possession team will face a struggling squad that can?t get the puck out of its own end. Despite some top-notch talent, Tampa?s flaws just keep getting bigger and more exposed. Take away Tampa?s top line, something the Kings are quite adept at doing, and the Bolts are hard pressed to score twice and that?s if the top line shows up. The Bolts are a bottom-10 team in so many key categories that includes save %, goal differential, and time spent in its own end. Furthermore, Tampa shows up about 50% of the time.
L.A. is coming off a 5-0 loss to the Caps on Super Bowl Sunday, which works to our advantage because the score influences the market. For those that didn?t watch that game, we?re here to tell you that the Kings dominated play and spent most of the game in Washington?s end. L.A. held a 38-20 shots on net advantage and a massive 64% puck possession advantage. The Caps buried the few chances they had while the Kings ran into a super hot backup goaltender. The chances of Ben Bishop being super hot are about the same as Dan Quinn being named Coach of the Week.
We cannot tell you what the result of this game will be but we can almost guarantee you that the Kings will have a huge territorial advantage. L.A. leads the league in Corsi For. They lead the league in fewest shots against per 60 minutes. Against Washington, Philadelphia and Colorado over its last three games, L.A. allowed 59 shots against combined. Throw out the 5-0 loss last game and the Kings allowed a total of three goals against in their previous five games combined (!). This is not a fair fight and the fact that the Bolts are favored here, albeit it slightly (at the time of this writing) is so wrong.
Carolina +175 over WASHINGTON
OT included. This one is interesting so let us set it up for you. Washington is the greatest show on ice and you can triple that sentiment when it plays at home. Washington?s last home loss was to New Jersey in OT in late December. To start the New Year, the Caps defeated Ottawa and Toronto but then they really caught fire. After defeating the Maple Leafs 6-5 on Jan 3 at the Verizon Center, nobody else has even come close. At home since that win over Toronto, Washington has victories of 5-0 over Columbus, 5-2 over Pittsburgh, 6-0 over Chicago, 5-0 over Philly, 6-1 over Carolina, 5-3 over Boston and 5-0 over Los Angeles. Add it up and the Caps have outscored a slew of playoff teams and Cup contenders over that span by a combined (and sick) score of 37-6. They are destroying quality opposition and taking names as they go.
Incidentally, and in case you missed it, one of those teams that the Caps buried was Carolina just 15 days ago on Jan 23 when they whacked the Canes, 6-1. However, a close look reveals that luck has played a major role in all those goals scored. Everything is going in for the Caps, thus some attrition is inevitable. Against L.A. on Sunday, the Caps were outshot 38-20 and won 5-0. In its 5-3 win over the Bruins, Washington had 22 shots on net while allowing 33. When the Caps beat Philadelphia, 5-0, they scored those five goals on 22 shots on net. When they beat the Hurricanes, 6-1, they scored all those goals on 24 shots on net. Overall, Washington has 26 shots on net or less in six of its last eight games while allowing far more than that. We also have to question whether or not the Caps want to continue scoring at this pace or even winning at this pace. They made a commitment to peaking at the right time this year so getting red-hot right now is detrimental to their quest. Production will inevitably regress and so will winning at this pace so the timing for a playoff choke is lining up again. Subconsciously, it has to be on every players mind to not peak too soon.
The Hurricanes have won three in a row off the break. They are a possession monster that is very capable of coming in here, playing their hearts out and catching the Caps rather disinterested. When you look back at the slew of strong competition that the Caps have played recently (Pitt, Chic, L.A., Columbus, etc), one could certainly excuse Washington for taking a breather here. The Hurricanes can and likely will catch the Caps not at their best and they should be able to hold a significant edge in puck possession based on the numbers this year.
Lastly, we have discussed paying attention to Pinnacle in the past. All morning, Pinnacle had the Canes +147 while every other sportsbook had Carolina taking back +170 or more. That was a good three hour window this morning that Pinnacle was giving away Washngton on the cheap. We?re not going to ignore that and we?re certainly not going to ignore that the ?Canes are too good to be taking back prices like this.
N.Y. RANGERS -1? +217 over Anaheim
With Kevin Hayes returning to The Rangers lineup here, this is New York?s best lineup and it?s a dangerous one. Hayes is one of these undervalued players that makes a big difference in terms of puck possession, something the Rags struggle with when Hayes is out. Hayes? returning allows Alain Vigneault to use Vesey with Stepan and Nash, a combination that was intact for 10 straight games from Oct. 22-Nov. 8 and had a 50 percent possession rating in 133 minutes of 5-on-5. The Chris Kreider-Mika Zibanejad-Mats Zuccarello unit is one of the league?s best and now the Hayes line (Grabner - Hayes - J.T. Miller) will be accounted for too. That leaves some pretty talented players to make up for the fourth line and while Hayes is no superstar, his presence in the lineup makes a big difference that not many will pay attention to. The Rangers are in line for a really spirited effort here and the Ducks are the perfect victims to attack.
Anaheim has the fourth most points in the West behind only Chicago, Minnesota and San Jose so they are considered to be an upper echelon team but we?re going to take a stance here and say they are not even close. The Ducks played some pretty good hockey earlier in the year but those days are long gone and while the results have not shown it yet, no team has regressed more over the past six weeks in terms of performance (not results) than the Ducks. Anaheim gets outplayed almost every game and appear to be going through the motions only. They have mustered a mere 16, 23, 26 and 27 shots on net in four of their last five games and it?s not like they were playing some defensive juggernauts (Florida, Tampa, Colorado, Edmonton and Winnipeg).
Anaheim can?t stay out of the box either. Only the undisciplined Jets have taken more penalties and that?s a major problem here against a potent Rags PP. The Ducks have five lousy wins in 18 games against top -10 competition and 10 lousy wins in 27 games against top-16 competition. This is not the first dressing room that Randy Carlyle has poisoned. He?s not a likeable guy at all and does not know how to communicate to make a guy like Andrew Cogliano for instance feel as important as Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry. The Ducks are tops on our fade list for the next while and it begins here.
Orlando vs. Houston
Pick: Orlando +11.5
The Houston Rockets may want to lay claim to being among the elite in the Western Conference, but they have certainly not played like it since the first of the year. They are 37-17, but that record was built early in the season as they got out of the gate at 26-9. Things have been much less impressive since as they are 11-8 over their last 19 games, but the overall record looks better and the line here is reflective of that. This is a team that out-scored opponents by +12.8 points per game in December, but since then they out-scored opponents by +2.5 ppg in Jamuary. So far in February, they have been out-scored by -0.5 ppg. This is not so much a play on Orlando as it is against Houston, who has become highly over-valued.
Nets vs. Hornets
Play:Nets +10?
The Charlotte Hornets aren't playing well enough to warrant being double-digit favorites over the Brooklyn Nets tonight. They have lost seven straight games coming in. I realize the Nets have also lost nine straight, but they have been competitive and have rarely lost by this margin. Six of their last seven losses have come by 9 points or fewer. The Nets and Hornets have already squared off three times this season, so this will be their fourth and final meeting. And the first three were all decided by 7 points or less. That trend likely continues tonight as the Nets cover this massive 10.5-point spread.
Nets / Hornets Over 217
These are the two coldest teams in the league right now...combined they have lost 16 straight games and it's all due to the defense...Neither team right now is doing anything on the defensive end and they are giving up triple digits nightly....The last win for the Hornets was against this Nets team 8 games back...i think they come out looking to outrun the nets here tonight....That could be a problem because the Nets will run and gun all night long...Nets will be on a back to back with a game on Wednesday night, but the Hornets have a day off before they play the Rockets at home...So I expect a high minute count for the starters for the Hornets...They should hit the 115 mark tonight without issue,...Nets avg about 105ppg and I think they get to that mark tonight also....It's really the defense and the situation I'll be playing here tonight...This will be the forth meeting between these two teams..They know what works more on the offensive end against each other...Bad defense tend to figure things out no matter who they play...Plus both teams can play fast and that alone has me liking the over by itself....I think we see a 116-106 type of game...Line is a tad low as I had this one 221.5
Nets vs. Hornets
Play: Under 217
The Nets have lost 9 straight games and come into this one having had yesterday off. The Hornets have lost 7 straight games and come into this one having had two days off. Both teams will have fresh legs and are looking to put that extra energy into the defensive end. Brooklyn has already been playing better on that end of the floor but Charlotte, so hungry for a win, really focused hard on that in practice as they prepared for this game. The Hornets know that fourth quarter collapses on defense have played a major role in their recent losing streak so they'll be fully focused on the defensive end for this one for all four quarters! The under is 4-0 in the Nets last 4 games and, going further back, the under is 7-2 in Brooklyn's last 9 games. The Hornets most recent home game went over the total but, prior to that, Charlotte was 5-0 to the under in their last 5 home games. The under is 5-1 this season (and 19-7 L3 seasons combined) when Charlotte enters a game having played each of their three prior games on the road. When playing with 2 days of rest between games the under is on a 22-13 run in Hornets games. The under is 4-1 when the Hornets are a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points and the under is also 5-2 this season in Charlotte's home games that have a posted total of 210 points or more. Looking at Brooklyn, the under is 6-3 this season in their games against Southeast Division opponents. Also, the Nets, the past 3 seasons combined, are 24-16 to the under when off of a divisional game.
Tuesday play is Kentucky to take out their frustrations of losing at Florida by 22-points their last time out - their 3rd loss in their last 4 games by the way! - on the LSU Tigers tonight in Lexington.
LSU comes into this game a putrid 9-13 now, as they are currently riding a 9-game straight up losing streak that has seen the points work only 3 times in those 9 losses.
This is a Tigers team that is averaging just 74-points per game, and they just don't own enough offense to keep this game anywhere within reach tonight against the merciless Wildcats who will be ready to put a licking on them.
The last time these SEC schools met, Kentucky let it rip in a 94-77 revenge win last March.
This one turns ugly very early, as Rupp Arena gets treated to a beat down of epic proportions.
Kentucky by 30 points.
3* KENTUCKY
Illinois vs. Northwestern
Play: Illinois +6
The Fighting Illini are worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the Wildcats. The public is all over Northwestern in this spot, as they see a short line at home with a team that has a much better record. The key here is that Northwestern is not the same team as it was just a week ago. The Wildcats lost talented junior guard Scottie Lindsey to mono prior to their last game at Purdue and they lost 59-80. Lindsey not only leads the team in scoring (15.4 ppg), but he's someone who does a little bit of everything (4.3 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.1 spg). It's a much bigger loss than people think and it's going to take some time for the Wildcats to adjust. I know Illinois has been struggling, but I think they keep this one close and I wouldn't be shocked if they won outright.
Georgia +5.5
Florida won the earlier meeting back on January 14th 80-76 in OT but failed to cover the 12-point spread. This is a nice situational spot here for Georgia coming off back-to-back road losses to South Carolina and Kentucky but they covered both games easily losing in OT to Kentucky and by only 2 at South Carolina. In fact, Georgia is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this year and much of that credit goes to their Top 30 defense. Meanwhile, on the other side, Florida is off their biggest win of the season, a 88-66 beatdown of Kentucky. The Gators have had 4 straight blowout wins and covers and we'll "Sell High" on them here.
San Diego St at San Jose St
Pick: Under
San Diego State is a strong defensive team, 5-1 under the total after a victory, 7-0 under after a spread cover. San Diego State is the top-ranked defensive unit in the conference. In Mountain West games only, the Aztecs rank first in points allowed (65.8 ), first in field-goal percentage defense (40.0 percent), blocked shots (5.0 bpg) and second in steals (7.1 spg). Last Saturday, SDSU?snapped Fresno State's 13-game homecourt win streak and the nation's longest active win streak vs. conference competition with a 70-67 win. San Jose State plays its best defense at home, on an 11-5-1 run under the total here. The Under is also 10-4 in the Spartans last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Iowa State vs. Texas
Play: Iowa St -2?
Texas simply underachieves in big spots and ISU is off a win at Kansas, and we all know how hard it is to win at Kansas. Many say this is a letdown spot, but Iowa State needed a jump start and an RPI bump to get the ball rolling for the big dance and seeding both there and in a conference tourney.
Texas is 7-1 at home against the Cyclones and no doubt playing a better brand of basketball down the stretch including a close loss to West Virginia, but I am still not convinced as Iowa State is a beast. That said you do not hear much about the ISU defense but it is better this year than most, forced 21 turnovers out of Kansas on the road. While not be a runaway win, Iowa State is the better team and the with 3-point capability and rebounding edge, I will take them and lay the 3. To take note the Longhorns in their last 5 games have shot 58% from the free throw stripe and that is a huge down the stretch in terms of possessions.
Central Michigan +8?
This is a clear letdown spot for the Ohio Bobcats. They just beat the best team in the MAC in Akron 85-70 at home on Saturday as 1.5-point underdogs. Now they are being priced like they are the best team in the MAC as 8.5-point favorites here over Central Michigan. But the Chippewas are no pushovers, winning 4 of their last 5 games coming in. And they have had the bobcats' number, going 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in the last 3 meetings. They won 72-49 at home over Ohio in their most recent meeting last season. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Bobcats are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.
Butler vs. Marquette
Play: Butler +1?
These two teams met back in Butler on 1/16 and the Bulldogs erased a 18-point halftime deficit in a 88-80 win and cover as a 7.5-point favorite. I think most are going to jump on Marquette here, expecting they will get their revenge at home and a lot of those same people remember them recently winning at home over Villanova. I just don't think that's going to be the case. The Golden Flashes are an average team and more than anything, I believe they are catching Butler at the wrong time.
The Bulldogs are going to be all business here, as they look to snap a 2-game losing streak, where they dropped games at home against Georgetown as a 8.5-point favorite and Creighton as a 7-point favorite. That is also playing into this line, as Butler should be favored here. The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 with a line of +3 to -3 and 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss. Marquette is 7-15 ATS in their last 22 as a home favorite and 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing their previous game on the road.
In the Sights, Tuesday NCAA?
A couple of strong handicapping principles line up in the same direction in the SEC tonight, and with more than fair market value out there it will be #708 South Carolina (6:30 Eastern) in play, with plenty of -6.5 available in the Tuesday morning trading and this one good to -7.
Here is a subtle notion that has worked throughout the ages and will likely continue ? look to play against a team that just lost a game that they were really going after, especially if they lost as a favorite. Part of that is the natural letdown notion, but even more significant is what it tells you about their strength ? if a team is pointing heavily towards a game and has such tools that the markets project them to win, yet loses anyway, that team may well be over-rated. Such is the case with Alabama. The Crimson Tide got embarrassed 84-64 in their first showdown with Auburn two weeks ago, and there was no question about how much focus was going into Saturday?s rematch as I did the pregame reading. Yet Bama was not even in the hunt, trailing by 12 with 2:30 remaining before making the final a more respectable 82-77.
Now for the second part, which brings some basketball science into play ? there is a dead zone out there for short road underdogs that will struggle to score, the notion being that if the line is in the ballpark and the favorite has the lead, the underdog will have to find ways to score quickly to rally. The Crimson Tide lack options on that front tonight. It is the #9 offense (SEC play) having to find cracks in the #1 defense, and there may be problems simply getting shots off, much less making them -
Bama ?O? SC ?D?
TO% #13 #1
Steal% #14 #1
And when shots are attempted ?
Bama ?O? SC ?D?
Eff FG% #13 #1
The Gamecocks aren?t pretty with the ball, but in this range they don?t have to be ? it is the defense choking off the Crimson Tide that can build out a bigger margin than the market projections.
MSU in far better form right now, any insight on this one?
I don't know what drove the morning markets higher, and there will be some +5 going into pocket soon, although the current Pinny shading has me holding out hopes for a 5.5. One of the emerging February themes that folks should be tracking is the Michigan State depth - the Spartans bench has out-scored the opponent's reserves 64-24 over the last two games, in each of them Cassius Winston scoring more points than the other team's bench by himself. That was a big factor in the first meeting, and it is not easy for the Wolverines to get a margin here because of that issue, unless they shoot exceptionally well. Which, of course, they are capable of, but their defense is dead last in the Big 10 and because of the lack of size and depth may not get much better the rest of the way.
do you see value on Syracuse?
That one is a real conundrum because of the timing - there is an Inside/Out that tells us that Syracuse may have peaked in that second half vs. Virginia, which might lead to some regression, while Clemson may have completely bottomed out at FSU, a game that broke so wide open that only one starter for either team was on the court longer than 26 minutes. But the markets are also betting the game that way, which is why the price has risen to where it is. The Tigers should obviously play with more spirit here than on Sunday, but a terrible defense (#13 in the ACC) may not be fixable at this stage, and in this price range their inconsistent FT shooting an also be a negative. The timing scares me, but if +5 shows I may peel off a bit of the Orange.
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Play: Over 151?
A pair of struggling MAC teams play as Toledo hosts Eastern Michigan. The Rockets have lost three straight and six of their last eight entering this one. The problem has been a defense that has allowed every conference opponent but one to score 70 points or better with four of them shooting 50% or better from the field. They've got offensive weapons so they can keep up a bit, but still it makes it harder. The Eagles have lost four of five entering this one and it's because of a struggling offense. A lot was expected from EMU because of their returning starters. The Eagles have had their own defensive issues. I think this one is close which means fouls come into play and that helps out total.
Vanderbilt +4 over ARKANSAS
Arkansas has struggled lately and nothing suggests those woes won't continue. The Razorbacks were awful against last place Missouri on Saturday, falling 83-78 as an eight-point favorite. The Hogs turned the ball over 17 times against Mizzou, which lead to 19-points for the Tigers. A loss like that will not endear you to the selection committee and now the pressure is on Arkansas to secure a place in the NCAA Tournament. Arkansas leads this all time series with Vanderbilt 22-11 and they've won four straight but so what. That will only motivate the dog more. The Hogs have more luck than substance and those razor thin margins often even out over time. Arkansas has been playing with fire when it comes to close contests. They've won six straight games that were decided by four points or less with one those victories being an improbable 1-point comeback over the Commodores just two weeks ago.
Vanderbilt comes into this one with a 11-12 record and sit 12th in the SEC. While its wins and losses my not look spectacular, a closer look shows us the Commodores have played the 15th toughest schedule in all of college hoops. More impressive yet is their recent form against some of the top teams in the country. Vandy has wins over Iowa State (another tough unranked team that's played a brutal schedule) and they went to Gainesville and beat the #17 ranked Gators outright as an 11? point pooch. These two teams played just a few week ago with the Commodores blowing a 15-point lead late in the second half. Vandy was the much better team on the floor that night but just because the Razorbacks took that game in Nashville doesn't guarantee the Hogs a victory tonight.
Vandy rebounded from that heartbreaking loss January 24th by winning their next two games, which included a 14-point victory over Texas A&M as a +4? road dog. Vandy has five guys that can stretch the floor and are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country with 10.1 triples per game. Even 7'1? center Luke Kornet can drain it from downtown and is shooting .382 from beyond the arc. Kornet is actually the NCAA's all time leading 3-point-shooting 7-footer. Winning on the road in this league is always tough but Vandy has a score to settle here for being the Hogs whipping boys for far too long. It?s one thing to get buried by the same team if you are inferior but that is not the case right now. We have two very misleading records going up against one another and we trust we?re getting the hungrier and superior team plus points. Arkansas is not good enough to be a 17-6 team.
Utah St at Colorado St
Play: Under 140.5
I've played Utah State under the total a handful of times over the last few weeks and have been rewarded with a few easy winners. The Aggies have actually gone under in six straight games based on the closing number thanks to some improved defense and a moderate pace. During that stretch, USU allowed 67.7 ppg and four of the six had 65 possessions or less. One such game was the first meeting between Utah State and tonight's opponent Colorado State. The Rams prevailed 64-56 as the game went well under the total of 142. CSU is a game out of first place in the Mountain West after winning four of five. The Rams are one of the slower teams in the MWC, particiularly on offense as Larry Eustachy has really preached patience. "It's the way you should play basketball," Eustachy said. "You want the other team to guard you, break them down, take a good shot, and then you don't spend as much time on defense." The Mountain West can be a tough nut to crack for totals bettors. There are a lot of games that appear headed for the low-130's only to land north of 150. Fouls, defensive lapses, hot shooting -- this league has is all and some. That said, I think tonight's game should play out similar to the grinder we saw in the first meeting. Play it under.
Oskeim Sports
San Diego State at San Jose State
Play: San Jose State +7.5
San Jose State applies to a very good 33-9 ATS system that invests on certain underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an upset win over a conference opponent, provided they are matched up against a conference foe off a close road win by three points or less. The Spartans are coming off back-to-back wins over UNLV (76-72) and New Mexico (78-68) and are playing with legitimate revenge after suffering a 76-61 loss at San Diego State earlier this season. And, San Jose State is more than capable of pulling the upset tonight as the Aztecs are just 6-6 SU and 5-6 ATS on the road and have a huge revenge game on deck against Nevada.
The Spartans already own upset wins over Washington State, Idaho, Fresno State, Air Force and the aforementioned Lobos. Finally, my math model only favors the Aztecs by four points and forward Zylan Cheatham, who is averaging 10.2 points and 6.4 rebounds per game, is questionable with a foot injury. With San Diego State standing at a money-burning 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games and 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a favorite of 7 to 12.5 points, grab the points with the Spartans and invest with confidence.
Florida at Georgia
Play: Florida -5.5
Since dropping back-to-back heartbreakers against both South Carolina and Vanderbilt in games they combined to average under 60 points per game, the Gators have flipped the switch and been the most impressive team in the SEC since. In destroying the Wildcats by 22 points, Florida has scored an average of 92.8 points per over its L/4 games and played a suffocating brand of defense in allowing an average of just 60.1 points per game. That +32.7 differential now finds them only behind the Gamecocks in the conference standings.
The Bulldogs are no doubt a better team than their 11-8 overall record indicates with it 7-2 ATS on the true road and 6-2 ATS in its last eight games. However, the team was just put through the ringer both physically and emotionally and might not have much left in the tank right now to compete against a Gators squad currently firing on all cylinders. With Florida 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the favorite 5-2 ATS in the last seven, I expect Florida to not suffer a letdown and hand Georgia yet another tough defeat.
Butler @ Marquette
Pick: Butler +1.5
After winning seven of eight games that included wins over No. 15 Xavier and top-ranked Villanova, 16th-ranked Butler went cold. The Bulldogs have dropped two straight, losing by four to Georgetown and dropping a 76-67 decision to No. 22 Creighton last Tuesday. Now, Butler head coach Chris Holtmann?s team has had a week to prepare for a road game at Marquette on Tuesday night.
Butler has a win over the Golden Eagles already this season having beaten Marquette 88-80 on Jan. 16. Leading scorer Kelan Martin scored 22 points to lead the Bulldogs while Kamar Baldwin added 18 and Kethan Savage scored 17 coming off the bench. The Bulldogs shot 53 percent from the floor and will need to do so again.
The Bulldogs will have to do their best to slow down Marquette guard Markus Howard. The 5-foot-11 freshman averages 12 points a game and led all scorers with 26 in the first meeting with Butler. Holtmann will also have to come up with a way to deal with the four-guard lineup of Marquette. Martin is Butler?s best player and averages 16.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game, both tops for the Bulldogs. Andrew Chrabascz (6-7, 230) is a big body that averages 11.2 points and 4.9 rebounds and Holtmann can go nine deep in his bench. Butler will likely need all nine as Marquette is one of the top scoring teams in the nation averaging 83.7 points per game (18th nationally).
Syracuse vs. Clemson
Pick: Clemson
These teams are off very different results on Saturday and I'm going to use that to our advantage by exploiting a line that seems too low. Syracuse is coming off a big upset of Virginia (at the Carrier Dome) where they were 4.5-point underdogs. Not only was it their fourth win in a row overall, it was their third straight as either a dog or a pick 'em. Meanwhile, a day after the Orange upset the Hoos, Clemson got humiliated down in Tallahassee. They lost 109-61 to Florida State, a result that I'm sure will have players motivated tonight. I'll lay the short number with the home team here.
This being a road game for Syracuse makes a world of difference. While they are 14-2 SU at home this season, they are a combined 1-7 SU in road/neutral site games. They've been outscored - on average - by a double digit margin as well. The lone SU (and ATS) win away from home this year came at NC State last Wednesday. However, that win required overtime and saw the Orange trail by as many as 16 in the second half. It was largely owed to your typical NC State gagjob.
ACC play hasn't gone all that well for Clemson. Their record is only 3-7 SU, however, they had won B2B games prior to the debacle at FSU. Many of the losses have been close. Four have been by five points or less, in fact. I'm simply willing to "sell high" on one team (Syracuse) and "buy low" on the other (Clemson) here as something is bound to go right for the latter here. Syracuse's road woes are a concern plus Clemson still averages over 80 PPG here in Death Valley.
