07:05 PM NHL [55] TOTAL o5.5 +120 (Colorado Avalanche vrs Philadelphia Flyers)
07:05 PM NHL [58] Boston Bruins -1.5 -125
07:35 PM NHL [59] Columbus Blue Jackets -115
07:35 PM NHL [62] Florida Panthers -156
08:05 PM NHL [63] Edmonton Oilers +102
08:35 PM NHL [67] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +190
10:35 PM NHL [74] San Jose Sharks -147
06:30 PM CBB [716] Seton Hall -3.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [723] TOTAL o150.5 -110 (Saint Bonaventure vrs Davidson)
1 unit bet pays 434 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71: :00hour
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Avs just scored five goals in their last game and their offense has been better on the road than at home. The Flyers have averaged a decent 2.68 gpg here at home, while the Avs have allowed 3.27 gpg on the road.
Supposedly well-rested teams have a woeful 7-13-4 in their first games back from the NHL bye (Jets, Red Wings tonight)
The Stars have now played an unbelievable 29 straight games without limiting an opponent to fewer than two goals.
Penguins at Stars
Pick: Over 6
Don't look for any defense with two fast-skating, offensive-oriented clubs flying around the ice. Pittsburgh is tops in the NHL in goals scored, seventh on the power play, #17 in goals allowed. Pittsburgh is on a 36-17-2 run OVER the total, 33-16-4 OVER when their opponent allows five or more goals in their previous game. Dallas is #13 in goals scored but the defense continues to be dismal at #29 in goals allowed, and last in penalty killing. They come off a 6-3 home loss to Boston as part of a 13-3 run OVER the total at home, as well as 8-2 OVER when playing on one day of rest.
Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres
Play: Nashville Predators -135
The Nashville Predators go to Western New York tonight and play the Buffalo Sabres at the KeyBank Center. These clubs are going in opposite directions of late as the Predators have won 3 in a row and the Sabres have lost 3 in a row. Real nice situation for Nashville here as they have a revenge angle for a 5-4 OT loss on January 24th. In that game Nashville had a 4-2 lead and gave it up late in the game to go on and lose in OT. Also the Sabres are coming home from a road trip and now play the Predators less than 48 hrs later. The Predators are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Buffalo and we will lay the price with them tonight.
Vancouver -111
Detroit is off its bye week, and I wonder about what's left in the motivational tank for the Red Wings. Barring an absolute miracle, this franchise will miss the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century. It's no fluke as this is a bad hockey team. I just can't see how the time off is a plus for a team going nowhere. It's also worth noting that while it's clearly a small sample, Detroit is 0-3 this season when swinging into action off three or more days rest. As for the Canucks, they're likely on the outside looking in come playoff time. But Vancouver has performed pretty well at home for the most part, and I expect them to win this game. The price is certainly not an obstacle, so I'm on the Canucks for my Tuesday free play.
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks
Play: Sharks -141
If you don?t mind laying some mid-sized chalk, it looks like a pretty good spot to pull the trigger on the home side. Toronto is coming off a 3-2 OT loss at home to Montreal and now travels across the country for this late night West Coast contest. San Jose comes in rested and confident after destroying the Canucks 4-1 last time out. Toronto averages 3.1 GPG and allows 2.9, while San Jose averages 2.8 GPG and allows 2.31 (ranked 3rd). The Sharks though have looked better offensively of late, averageing 3.2 GPG over their last ten. Note that San Jose is 17-11 (+2.8 units) in non-conference contests this year, while Toronto is 9-14 (-8.6 units) in non-conference games thus far. Consider laying the reasonable price on SAN JOSE tonight.
Oilers vs. Blues
Play: Over 5
We like the Oilers at the Blues over 5. Both teams have some challenges between the pipes IMO. Here are some statistics that led to my action: Over is 3-1-2 in Oilers last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 4-0-1 in Blues last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Blues last 5 vs. Western Conference. Over is 6-1-4 in Blues last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 Tuesday games. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 13-4-4 in Blues last 21 home games.
Columbus -104 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal has now won two in row after defeating Toronto on Saturday night and the Devils last night. Montreal could just as easily be 0-2 in those games, as both games went into OT and last night Montreal scored with its goaltender pulled to tie it up. Montreal?s last three victories have all come via OT so this discussion could just as easily be about a team on a seven-game losing streak. The Habs were outplayed last night, they were outshot in both Toronto and New Jersey and they are also 0-4 in their last four games in the tail-end of back-to-backs. Furthermore, the Habs will host the Predators on Thursday in P.K. Subban?s anticipated return to his old stomping grounds. Try and get a ticket for that game. Montreal is not playing well. The Canadiens have been fortunate in their last three victories and are in danger of suffering a big letdown, as this one is sandwiched between a huge celebratory victory last night in OT (rallied from a 3-1 third period deficit) and P.K. Subban?s return on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets quietly arrive in Montreal with great rhythm. While most teams have struggled coming out of the bye week, John Tortorella?s squad returned with a bang, following up a 7-0 pasting of the New York Islanders on Saturday with a 5-2 decision over the New York Rangers on Sunday. Coming off a break and playing six periods like the Jackets have is a huge statement that nobody is saying much about. Everyone wants to talk trades and how good Minnesota and Washington are while ignoring the Blue Jackets. 14 different players recorded points in Columbus? last two games and seven players scored at least once. The Jackets are rested, in exceptional form and playing at a very high level. The Canadiens at their very best would be hard-pressed to beat this team tonight (or any night for that matter) and we highly doubt that this will be that night. Win or lose, this has to be considered one of the better value bets of the year.
Nashville -? +122 over BUFFALO
OT included. The Predators are playing at an extremely high level right now with several players getting hot all at the same time. The Preds have won three in a row and they have also scored an incredible four goals or more in seven of their past nine games including five on Washington on Saturday. Nashville has won three in a row and has picked up nine out of a possible 10 points over its last five games. If they do not cover here, it?ll likely be because Pekka Rinne is so bad but it?s a gamble we?re willing to take because Buffalo is a mess and will very likely get beat here.
The Sabres recently won three in a row to at least give them some hope for the playoffs just before their bye week. A 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks was not a big deal prior to its bye but what occurred afterward is a huge deal that is about to send the Sabres reeling if they are not already. Coming out of the bye, Buffalo played Colorado and Arizona and went 0-2 in those games. They not only lost to Arizona but blew a two-goal, third period lead and allowed the winning goal with 18 seconds remaining, thus not even securing one point. The Sabres have chosen to go with Linus Ullmark in goal tonight, a curious choice indeed when you consider that Ullmark hasn?t made a start this season and that both Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson have been good and both are capable of playing. There is some speculation that Lehner is not 100% but even if that were the case, Nilsson is capable of playing. Reading into it, we?re speculating that the Sabres are showcasing Ullmark to scouts for a potential trade, as that is the only thing that makes sense. Aside from that, Buffalo returns home from that mind-damaging two-game trip that essentially ended their year. We have to question Buffalo?s motivation here. This is a team of plodders that cannot keep up to the fast-pace of the Predators on their best day. Buffalo?s quickest player is Evan Rodrigues, a guy that sounds like he should be playing shortstop for the Padres. With a third stringer in net, plus returning home from a trip to the high altitude of Denver and subsequently to the Arizona desert, with a mindset that cannot be positive, Buffalo is ripe to get whacked here.
CALGARY -? +148 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. Playing a depleted team coming off its bye, Los Angeles lost 5-4 to Minnesota last night in OT. The Wild were without Jason Pominville and Zach Parise (mumps). Ryan White and Martin Hanzal, acquired in a trade with Arizona the night before, arrived at the arena after a long flight and physical exams less than two hours before the puck drop. Tyler Graovac was a late call-up to Minnesota from AHL affiliate Iowa and played his third game in three nights. Minnesota was up against big time last night yet scored five times on the great Jonathan Quick. One game is no big deal but the point is that the Kings evenly priced in Calgary is so wrong. Scoring four times in back-to-back games is a giant outlier for Los Angeles. They usually score once or twice on a good night.
Los Angeles has great metrics. That is something that is well-documented, especially this time of year when all the experts and talk radio shows are discussing trades, team weaknesses and strengths and which teams are legit or not. Yes indeed, we are quite aware of the Kings outstanding Corsi For numbers that has their stock much higher than it should be. Los Angeles does not have stable goaltending, whether it?s Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick or Peter Budaj. They have one line that can score and a bunch of other castoffs and third and fourth liners. Outside of Drew Doughty, L.A.?s defense is a cluster of very average players. So yeah, the Kings somehow manage to have the puck more often than their opponents, which proves that hard work goes a long way but there is a reason the Kings missed the playoffs last year and likely will miss them again this year. Talent wise, man for man, L.A. is miles apart from the upper tier teams in the NHL. In this matchup, they are the second best team and it?s not even close.
An angle that the market often fades is teams? returning home from a trip and that applies here, as Calgary returns home from a 4-1 trip in which it picked up nine out of a possible 10 points. The Flames have won four straight and are 9-2-1 in their last 12, a league best and has launched themselves into 7th place in the West. The Flames went from barely hanging on to the 8th and final spot to becoming one of the hottest teams in the league. Brian Elliott has been a huge factor in that, as he has gone 7-1-1 over that span with a save % of .927. There are so many positives surrounding the Flames right now that includes a hot Jonny Gaudreau, balanced scoring, the outstanding acquisition of Michael Stone to solidify perhaps the best group of d-men in the league, solid goaltending and perhaps most importantly, they're playing with confidence and swag. The Scotiabank Saddledome will be one of the louder rinks in the league tonight and this energized Flames? team is very likely chomping at the bit to get back out there and put the Kings away. These two teams are NOT even but the game is priced like the Kings are the superior team. That is market perception working at its best in our favor. Invest
Lafayette vs. Loyola Maryland
Play: Loyola Maryland -10
Loyola has dropped three in a row, losing one game in OT and the other two by a grand total of just three points. But they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," in my opinion when hosting Lafayette on Tuesday night. The Leopards have been pretty bad on the defensive end this season, especially on the road where they allow 76 ppg on 47% shooting, while averaging just 63 ppg, themselves. Lafayette has a horrible rebound margin of minus-7.3 per game on the road and just one player averages over 4.1 rpg. Loyola-Maryland clobbered the Leopards on the glass in their 70-62 win in late January and I expect an even wider margin win tonight. Guards Jared Jones & Andre Walker combine for more than 30 ppg and Jones & Cam Gregory combine for nearly 14 rpg. I believe the Greyhounds will make it a season sweep and by a spread-covering margin.
Oklahoma St at Iowa St
Pick: Oklahoma St
We didn't see this coming with OSU, especially after the Cowboys dropped their first six out of the gate in Big 12 play. But OSU has evolved into an impressive UCLA-like offensive force now winging its way toward the Big Dance for first-year HC Brad Underwood (formerly SF Austin), as the Stillwater bunch has captured 9 of 10 SU with last Wednesday's recovery from a slow start at K-State. Surging soph G Jawun Evans has really caught fire, scoring 24 ppg in recent wins over Oklahoma and KSU. It's a different OSU than the one that lost at home to Iowa State back on Jan. 11, when the Cowboys were in the midst of their slow start in league action.
Fresno St at Boise St
Pick: Boise St
Boise State will play it's final home game versus the Fresno State Bulldogs Tuesday, and a win will bring the Broncos within a half a game of first place in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs are a few games back in the standings, and might be looking ahead to their final home game versus UNLV this weekend. Home court has been key in this series, as the road team has picked up just one win in the last 10 meetings. That was a 72-63 win for the Broncos at Fresno State in 2013. The Bulldogs have lost five straight trips to Boise, by an average margin of more than 10 points. The Broncos are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, while the Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last seven on the road. Boise State hasn't had any trouble scoring points lately, averaging 80.4 points on 45 percent shooting over it's last five games.
Oklahoma St @ Iowa St
Pick: Iowa St. -3.5
Two teams on the cusp of making it into the NCAA tournament meet on Tuesday night with a chance at making their case a little stronger for the selection committee. The Cowboys, who are 10-1 in their last 11 games, take on the streaking Cyclones, who have won five in a row including a weekend upset of No. 9 Baylor. Both teams can fill it up and the difference will likely come down to who plays better defense and who rebounds better.
The Cyclones (19-9, 11-5) are likely in the tourney. Head coach Steve Prohm?s team does have nine losses, but five are to ranked teams. Iowa State sports a huge win over Kansas earlier this year. That win ended the Jayhawks 51-game home winning streak. The Cyclones are a veteran bunch, too, that just two years ago won the conference tournament. They are led by guard Monte Morris (16.3 ppg, 6.0 apg) and big, bruising forward Deonte Burton (14.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg).
Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-7) is led by guard Jawun Evans who averages 18.2 points and 6.0 assists per game. The Cowboys are ninth in the nation in scoring average 85.7 points a night. While they do have 20 wins, Oklahoma State lacks a signature win and beating the Cyclones would give them a quality win. The Cowboys lost to Iowa State the first time around, 96-86, when Morris scored 30 points. Oklahoma State shot well but did not defend well, which has been their nemesis all season.
Ohio State at Penn State
Play: Penn State -1.5
Ohio St and Penn St come in tied at 6-10 in conference action. While the Nittany Lions were picked to finish near the bottom of the standings the Buckeyes season has been a major disappointment as they were projected to be an upper-half team. This is their only scheduled game for this season and Ohio St has won the last 4 games including knocking Penn St out of last years. Big 10 Tournament.
Ohio St is coming off an upset of Wisconsin as they were a 7 point underdog and won 83-73. They are however 2-5 SU/ATS on the conference road. Penn St is off 3 straight losses but in their last game at home they took Purdue to the wire in a 4 point loss which they covered. The Lions have cashed 5 of their last 6 at Bryce Jordan Center.
Penn St has a clear goal and that is to win their final two games of the regular season making them 16-15 into the conference tournament. With the home/road dichotomy clearly favoring the host, this being the final home game for the Penn St seniors and the visitor off a huge upset with their final home game against Indiana on deck the call goes to Penn St to get the win.
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -1?
This is the final home game of the season for Penn St. and while the last home game is never a guaranteed win, a lot of that has to do with opponent and motivation. The Nittany Lions can finish the season over .500 with a victory here and at Iowa on Saturday to likely get into a lesser tournament after the end of the Big Ten Tournament which is a big deal to extend the season and carry it into next year. The Nittany Lions have lost three straight games including a home loss to Purdue in overtime and they have been very good at home despite a 9-6 record that seems pretty average. Penn St. is 4-4 at home in the conference that includes victories over Michigan St., Minnesota and Maryland. Ohio St. does not fall into that group and while the Buckeyes have the same conference record as Penn St., the season is much more disappointing because of lofty expectations that occur every season. The Buckeyes are coming off a home upset over Wisconsin but they are just 4-10 ATS this season following a victory. Additionally, they are just 3-7 on the road with two of those coming in the conference by just four points combined and the other coming at Navy.
Not too big of a matchup here in the Big South Conference Tournament, as I suspect Charleston Southern to roll. I don't know if I'd lay double digits with an 11-win team, either, but the Buccaneers should win.
What also should happen is a high-scoring game.
Both scoring defenses are horrendous, as Longwood allows 81 points per game, and Charleston Southern gives up 77.6 points per contest. Even more, is Longwood allowing 80.1 on the road and Southern giving up 74.9 at home. So that's 155 points.
These two scored 137 the first time they met, but then a whopping 164 points just the other day, in the season-finale.
Play this one high, as Charleston Southern pushes the tempo in the opening round, and Longwood comes along for the ride.
5* Longwood/Charleston Southern Over
Georgetown vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall -5?
The Seton Hall Pirates are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now. But they are coming on strong late in the season just as they did last year when they won the Big East Tournament to get in. Kevin Willard's squad just seems to be at their best when the pressure is the greatest.
The Pirates have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with one of their losses coming to Villanova. They have beaten fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Providence, Creighton and Xavier at home during this stretch. They also beat Georgetown on the road, which is tonight's opponent. They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hoyas.
John Thompson is a dead man walking for the Hoyas. He has consistently underachieved, and they aren't going anywhere this season at 14-15. They appear to have quit down the stretch by going 1-5 in their last six games. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three, losing by 17 at Creighton, getting upset at home by DePaul as 13.5-point favorites, and falling at St. John's.
Georgetown is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season. The Hoyas are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgetown is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. The Pirates are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Buffalo +5
Akron has already clinched the MAC East title and these two teams, along with Kent, are battling for 2nd place. Ohio comes into this game with a 10-6 conference record while Buffalo is 9-7. The Bulls have been solid on the road winning 3 straight and putting together a 5-3 road record in MAC play. Two of their three road losses in MAC play have come by a single point. Speaking of the road, the visitor in this series has won 6 of the last 9 meetings outright in this series. That trend continued earlier this year when Ohio topped Buffalo on the road by a final score of 74-72. Buffalo blew a 14 point half time lead in that game shooting just 37% and they making just 15 FT?s to 24 for Ohio. Even with that the game was tight because Buffalo destroyed Ohio on the boards (+12 overall & +10 offensive rebounds). We expect that to happen again here as the Bulls are one of the top rebounding teams in the MAC while Ohio is one of the worst. Expect Buffalo to shoot much better than the first meeting as the Bulls have hit 47% of their shots over the last five games and this team actually shoots better on the road than they do at home this season. The Bulls are playing well with a 6-2 record their last 8. Ohio started the MAC season with 3 straight wins but since losing star forward Antonio Campbell (16 PPG & 9 RPG) for the season in mid January the Bobcats are just 7-5, including 3 losses at home. We rate these teams almost dead even right now and the value is with Buffalo tonight.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -2
I really like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a short home favorite against the Panthers. Both teams come in having lost their last two games, but I feel Georgia Tech is in the much better spot here at home, where they are 14-4 on the season. On top of that it's their final home game of the season, which adds a little extra to this one.
Pittsburgh just played their final home game and got destroyed by North Carolina. I just don't see them bouncing back here, especially with a much bigger game on deck against Virginia. The Panthers are also not that great of a road team, as they are just 4-8 on the season. Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after losing 2 of their last 3 games.
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Play: Texas A&M -4
Texas A&M has lost 3 straight on the road but I like their chances here tonight against an awful Mizzu team who sits at 2-14 in conference play. The Aggies are at least nine points better than the Tigers when they meet in Missouri on Tuesday. Although Texas A&M is a longshot for any sort of postseason invitation, it can make a case by winning its final two SEC games to break even in conference play, then with a solid showing in the conference tournament. The Aggies could benefit from a flat spot by Missouri, which has lost four straight but saw solid efforts against Kentucky and Ole Miss go for naught. I doubt Mizzu gets up for this game and I see Texas A&M by 10 or more tonight!
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri +4
The set-up: The 15-13 Texas A&M Aggies will end their regular season on Saturday at home versus Kentucky but should (?) be able to win in their final road game of the season here, at 7-21 Missouri Tigers, who are 2-14 in the SEC.
Texas A&M: The Aggies are coming off an 'ugly' 56-53 win over Alabama, a game in which neither team shot better than 34 percent from the floor and the two squads combined to shoot 8-for-35 from three-point range. Texas A&M head coach Billy Kennedy can't be too pleased with this year's record, after A&M won 28 games last season in reaching the Sweet 16. The fact is, the Aggies have really underachieved this season. Kennedy has two 6-10 centers in Davis (14.4 & 6.8 ) and Troch-Morelos (8.1 & 5.2) plus two 6-9 forwards in Williams (12.0 & 7.9) and Hogg (12.0 & 5.1). He also has a quality PG in Gilder (13.7-4.0-3.9). Why is this team just two games above.500 and 7-9 in SEC play?
Missouri: Head coach Kim Anderson is pretty much at loss with the way things have gone for him, here at his alma mater. He led the Central Missouri Mules to back-to-back MIAA championships and three appearances in the NCAA Division II Final Four in 2007, 2009 and won the championship in 2014. On April 28, 2014 it was announced that he would take over the job vacated by Frank Haith at the University of Missouri, his alma mater. Missouri had won 20-plus games for six straight years when he took over (five NCAA appearances) but the Tigers went 10-21 and 9-23 in his first two seasons, going 3-15 each season in SEC play. Now it's 7-21 overall, including 2-14 in SEC play with two games left.
The pick: A&M is the better team but as noted above, has not come close to getting the most out of its talent. Eight Missouri players see regular "PT" and chip in between 5.4 and 12.2 PPG. When these teams met at College Station, the Tigers lost by just three, despite A&M shooting 49.1%. A&M has nothing to play for here and I expect Missouri to pull the "upset!"
St Bonaventure vs. Davidson
Play: Over 148
A pair of defensively challenged teams play as Davidson hosts St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have gone over in three straight and four of their last five games. They have scored 70 or more in eight straight games as they rely on Adams and Mobley in the backcourt. Their problems on the defensive side have been slowing down the opponent with five of their last seven scoring 70 points or more. The Wildcats don't have a problem putting up points with Jack Gibbs and Peyton Aldridge. They also have an issue with defense going over in three straight games. Three of their last four home games have seen the opponent put up at least 70. The last two times these two played each other the scores were 90-86 and 97-85. I think this one could be fun to watch.
DePaul vs. Providence
Play: Over 135
Even though the Friars are seeking revenge for a loss at DePaul earlier this season, they also are coming off of a huge 4-game stretch where they have beaten Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Marquette in succession. In this type of situation I simply can't see Providence bringing a very strong effort on the defensive end for this game. The Friars are hosting the worst team in the conference and could be flat after all the strong teams they have recently faced. As for DePaul, they've been a hot shooting team recently and the Blue Demons also have confidence against Providence as a result of beating them last month. DePaul comes into this game having shot nearly 50% from the field in their last 3 games combined. As usual though, the Blue Demons defense leaves a lot to be desired. Teams are shooting 47% overall and 37% from three point land against DePaul this season. The over is 6-2 this season (and 16-8 the last 3 seasons combined) in their games with a posted total in the 130s. As for the Friars, the over is a fantastic 6-1 in recent seasons (and 17-5 long-term) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the over is 11-5 the L3 seasons in Providence's games against teams with a losing record.
DePaul vs. Providence
Play: Over 135
Even though the Friars are seeking revenge for a loss at DePaul earlier this season, they also are coming off of a huge 4-game stretch where they have beaten Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Marquette in succession. In this type of situation I simply can't see Providence bringing a very strong effort on the defensive end for this game. The Friars are hosting the worst team in the conference and could be flat after all the strong teams they have recently faced. As for DePaul, they've been a hot shooting team recently and the Blue Demons also have confidence against Providence as a result of beating them last month. DePaul comes into this game having shot nearly 50% from the field in their last 3 games combined. As usual though, the Blue Demons defense leaves a lot to be desired. Teams are shooting 47% overall and 37% from three point land against DePaul this season. The over is 6-2 this season (and 16-8 the last 3 seasons combined) in their games with a posted total in the 130s. As for the Friars, the over is a fantastic 6-1 in recent seasons (and 17-5 long-term) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the over is 11-5 the L3 seasons in Providence's games against teams with a losing record.
Item: The LHG at Iowa State means more than most (but Oklahoma State is a beast right now)
There are not many Senior Nights on this week?s board that bring as much of a legacy as the final bow-out for seven Iowa State players this evening, including four starters. If it seemed like Frank Mason had a rather unusual career arc for Kansas, which got celebrated in Lawrence last night, how about Monte Morris making start #115 his evening? Meanwhile Nazareth Mitrou-Long is finishing his fifth season, getting a medical red-shirt after appearing in only eight games LY; Matt Thomas is closing out a career that saw him start 15 games as a freshman back in 2013-14; and while Deonte Burton began his career with Marquette, this will be game #55 and start #36 for him as a Cyclone.
It has been quite a run for the group, State winning at least 23 games in each of the seasons, and because of their leadership and balance (all four of the seniors are averaging in double figures), they have a chance to make a run in the Big Dance. Here is how floor leader Morris sets the Tuesday stage ? ?I?ll probably cry in the locker room when coach plays our video ? our highlight tape. He plays a personal one for the guys. Even on the plane coming back from Texas Tech (last week), I got emotional just knowing our flights are winding down together.?
It will not be easy tonight, however. Remember all of those great things written about the UCLA offense in the Friday edition, and how the Bruins were elevating to a historical level? Behind the skill sets of Jawun Evans, Jeffrey Carroll and Phil Forte, who are now getting comfortable in the first season of Brad Underwood?s schemes, the Oklahoma State offense has also become something special -
2017 Offensive Efficiency
1. UCLA 125.5
2. OSU 125.3
That isn?t just rating the Cowboys as #2 for this season, but at #3 over the past decade, only 2015 Wisconsin scoring at a more efficient clip. As the chemistry comes together they have built a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS run, the only loss in the span a close defeat vs. Baylor, and who knows just how high the ceiling is.
Let?s go to Underwood for more on that ? ?We?re a good basketball team and have we peaked? Not yet. We have a chance to be an exceptional basketball team and we?re showing that.?
These two put on an offensive showcase in Stillwater earlier, Iowa State winning 96-86, and I don?t see the flow changing all that much ? while it is the #1 and #18 offenses on the court, the defenses are far less of a force, the Cyclones at #46 and the Cowboys at #111. And when those defenses do cause a miss note that each has been weak at clearing the boards, ISU #275 in the nation in defensive rebounding, and OSU even worse at #317.
So how does this one flow? I believe the same way, and it will put #750 Iowa State/Oklahoma State Over (9:00 Eastern) in pocket, with 161 the going morning rate (a shopper can get to 160 right now), and this one good to 162. I expect an intense game, a fast-paced game, and also a close game - these teams suffered one loss each in February, by a combined five points. What does the latter element mean? An opportunity for some late scrambling, and this duo just happens to be #1 (OSU at 80.3) and #3 (ISU at 73.0) in the Big 12 in free throw shooting. Meanwhile the willingness to chase stems from the fact that the teams are #1 and #2 in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting, so the final furlongs of this race could pack a lot of points.
My play is on the Utah Jazz, as I'm being very cautious not to fall into the trap of playing the home underdog Oklahoma City Thunder. Rather than take the underdog that looks far too appealing, I'm siding with the oddsmakers in this one.
While the Thunder does have Russell Westbrook, the Jazz are an overall better outfit, which is why their favored.
And if you look closely, you see both are on three-game win streaks.
But Utah has beaten Portland, and won at Milwaukee and at Washington. The Thunder, on the other hand, are in after wins against the Knicks, Lakers and Pelicans. Talk about three stooges, you couldn't make an all-star squads from those three teams and come up with a roster that would beat the Thunder.
Utah is the better team, and the right side.
4* JAZZ
Warriors vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards +6?
The All Star Break couldn't have come at a worse time for the Wiz who are 0-2 post after going 18-3 heading into the break. Wiz should be completely focused here having lost 9 of 10 in the series and catching the Warriors in a tough B2B after playing in Philly last night. The always overpriced Warriors are 1-4 ATS L5 and could care less about margin in the second half. John Wall and Bradley Beal a very underrated back court. Wiz straight up.
Nuggets/Bulls Over 222
Chicago has been playing at a faster pace since trading away Gibson, as it's forced them to go more of a small ball lineup with a stretch 4 instead of your traditional power forward. They put up 128 at home against the Suns in the first game back from the break and 117 last time out against the Cavs. I see no reason why the offense will slow down against a Nuggets team that has allowed 105 or more points in 8 consecutive games. Chicago defense hasn't been horrible, but Denver also likes to play at a fast pace and can certainly score at 110.6 ppg. The Bulls also figure to save some of that energy on defense for Thursday's big showdown at home against the Warriors.
Nuggets vs. Bulls
Play: Nuggets +3
The betting public is all over the Chicago Bulls today, yet this line has dropped from 4.5 down to 3. I agree with the move and the big money being on the Nuggets to drop this line. The Bulls are coming off four straight victories, including a 117-99 upset in Cleveland against a Cavaliers team that was without Lebron James. The Bulls are primed for a letdown now here tonight at home against the Nuggets. Denver has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Denver is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games off an ATS loss. Chicago is 8-19 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Hornets vs. Lakers
Pick: Charlotte
I've taken the Hornets in every game since the All-Star Break. The first time did not end well as they blew a large fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime at Detroit. But after failing to cover there, they won at Sacramento Saturday and then w/o rest, played the Clippers tough Sunday. It was a wire to wire cover there as 10-pt dogs. Incredbly, the Hornets are now a league-worst 0-5 SU in overtime games this year (were 4-0 last year!). I still believe this team is set to ascend in the Eastern Conference standings, so a logically that means they should beat the lowly Lakers Tuesday. I think they will - with "room to spare."
The Lakers have already exceeded last year's win total (17), but that's quite a low bar to get excited about. After a respectable 10-10 SU start under 1st year HC Luke Walton, this once proud franchise has gone 9-31 since the start of December. Headlines were made last week when it was announced the Magic Johnson was being brought back into the fold, to run the team. What a sad, desperate callback to the past. The reality of the matter is Magic can't help this team's woeful defense, which is 29th in efficiency. The Lakers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. The last three losses have all been by double digits.
Charlotte is top 10 in defensive efficiency and has actually outscored its opponents this season. So I feel their record is misleading. Yes, it's been an ugly stretch. But they easily could have won their last four games. Two of the saw them blow a double digit lead in the 4Q. Then there was the OT loss to the Clippers Sunday. When favored this year, the Hornets have won 24 of 39 games. Lay the short number.
07:05 PM NHL [58] Boston Bruins -1.5 -125
07:35 PM NHL [59] Columbus Blue Jackets -115
07:35 PM NHL [62] Florida Panthers -156
08:05 PM NHL [63] Edmonton Oilers +102
08:35 PM NHL [67] Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 +190
10:35 PM NHL [74] San Jose Sharks -147
06:30 PM CBB [716] Seton Hall -3.5 -110
07:00 PM CBB [723] TOTAL o150.5 -110 (Saint Bonaventure vrs Davidson)
1 unit bet pays 434 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71: :00hour
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
The Avs just scored five goals in their last game and their offense has been better on the road than at home. The Flyers have averaged a decent 2.68 gpg here at home, while the Avs have allowed 3.27 gpg on the road.
Supposedly well-rested teams have a woeful 7-13-4 in their first games back from the NHL bye (Jets, Red Wings tonight)
The Stars have now played an unbelievable 29 straight games without limiting an opponent to fewer than two goals.
Penguins at Stars
Pick: Over 6
Don't look for any defense with two fast-skating, offensive-oriented clubs flying around the ice. Pittsburgh is tops in the NHL in goals scored, seventh on the power play, #17 in goals allowed. Pittsburgh is on a 36-17-2 run OVER the total, 33-16-4 OVER when their opponent allows five or more goals in their previous game. Dallas is #13 in goals scored but the defense continues to be dismal at #29 in goals allowed, and last in penalty killing. They come off a 6-3 home loss to Boston as part of a 13-3 run OVER the total at home, as well as 8-2 OVER when playing on one day of rest.
Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres
Play: Nashville Predators -135
The Nashville Predators go to Western New York tonight and play the Buffalo Sabres at the KeyBank Center. These clubs are going in opposite directions of late as the Predators have won 3 in a row and the Sabres have lost 3 in a row. Real nice situation for Nashville here as they have a revenge angle for a 5-4 OT loss on January 24th. In that game Nashville had a 4-2 lead and gave it up late in the game to go on and lose in OT. Also the Sabres are coming home from a road trip and now play the Predators less than 48 hrs later. The Predators are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Buffalo and we will lay the price with them tonight.
Vancouver -111
Detroit is off its bye week, and I wonder about what's left in the motivational tank for the Red Wings. Barring an absolute miracle, this franchise will miss the playoffs for the first time in a quarter century. It's no fluke as this is a bad hockey team. I just can't see how the time off is a plus for a team going nowhere. It's also worth noting that while it's clearly a small sample, Detroit is 0-3 this season when swinging into action off three or more days rest. As for the Canucks, they're likely on the outside looking in come playoff time. But Vancouver has performed pretty well at home for the most part, and I expect them to win this game. The price is certainly not an obstacle, so I'm on the Canucks for my Tuesday free play.
Maple Leafs vs. Sharks
Play: Sharks -141
If you don?t mind laying some mid-sized chalk, it looks like a pretty good spot to pull the trigger on the home side. Toronto is coming off a 3-2 OT loss at home to Montreal and now travels across the country for this late night West Coast contest. San Jose comes in rested and confident after destroying the Canucks 4-1 last time out. Toronto averages 3.1 GPG and allows 2.9, while San Jose averages 2.8 GPG and allows 2.31 (ranked 3rd). The Sharks though have looked better offensively of late, averageing 3.2 GPG over their last ten. Note that San Jose is 17-11 (+2.8 units) in non-conference contests this year, while Toronto is 9-14 (-8.6 units) in non-conference games thus far. Consider laying the reasonable price on SAN JOSE tonight.
Oilers vs. Blues
Play: Over 5
We like the Oilers at the Blues over 5. Both teams have some challenges between the pipes IMO. Here are some statistics that led to my action: Over is 3-1-2 in Oilers last 6 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 4-0-1 in Blues last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-0 in Blues last 5 vs. Western Conference. Over is 6-1-4 in Blues last 11 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 Tuesday games. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Blues last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 13-4-4 in Blues last 21 home games.
Columbus -104 over MONTREAL
OT included. Montreal has now won two in row after defeating Toronto on Saturday night and the Devils last night. Montreal could just as easily be 0-2 in those games, as both games went into OT and last night Montreal scored with its goaltender pulled to tie it up. Montreal?s last three victories have all come via OT so this discussion could just as easily be about a team on a seven-game losing streak. The Habs were outplayed last night, they were outshot in both Toronto and New Jersey and they are also 0-4 in their last four games in the tail-end of back-to-backs. Furthermore, the Habs will host the Predators on Thursday in P.K. Subban?s anticipated return to his old stomping grounds. Try and get a ticket for that game. Montreal is not playing well. The Canadiens have been fortunate in their last three victories and are in danger of suffering a big letdown, as this one is sandwiched between a huge celebratory victory last night in OT (rallied from a 3-1 third period deficit) and P.K. Subban?s return on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jackets quietly arrive in Montreal with great rhythm. While most teams have struggled coming out of the bye week, John Tortorella?s squad returned with a bang, following up a 7-0 pasting of the New York Islanders on Saturday with a 5-2 decision over the New York Rangers on Sunday. Coming off a break and playing six periods like the Jackets have is a huge statement that nobody is saying much about. Everyone wants to talk trades and how good Minnesota and Washington are while ignoring the Blue Jackets. 14 different players recorded points in Columbus? last two games and seven players scored at least once. The Jackets are rested, in exceptional form and playing at a very high level. The Canadiens at their very best would be hard-pressed to beat this team tonight (or any night for that matter) and we highly doubt that this will be that night. Win or lose, this has to be considered one of the better value bets of the year.
Nashville -? +122 over BUFFALO
OT included. The Predators are playing at an extremely high level right now with several players getting hot all at the same time. The Preds have won three in a row and they have also scored an incredible four goals or more in seven of their past nine games including five on Washington on Saturday. Nashville has won three in a row and has picked up nine out of a possible 10 points over its last five games. If they do not cover here, it?ll likely be because Pekka Rinne is so bad but it?s a gamble we?re willing to take because Buffalo is a mess and will very likely get beat here.
The Sabres recently won three in a row to at least give them some hope for the playoffs just before their bye week. A 5-1 loss to the Blackhawks was not a big deal prior to its bye but what occurred afterward is a huge deal that is about to send the Sabres reeling if they are not already. Coming out of the bye, Buffalo played Colorado and Arizona and went 0-2 in those games. They not only lost to Arizona but blew a two-goal, third period lead and allowed the winning goal with 18 seconds remaining, thus not even securing one point. The Sabres have chosen to go with Linus Ullmark in goal tonight, a curious choice indeed when you consider that Ullmark hasn?t made a start this season and that both Robin Lehner and Anders Nilsson have been good and both are capable of playing. There is some speculation that Lehner is not 100% but even if that were the case, Nilsson is capable of playing. Reading into it, we?re speculating that the Sabres are showcasing Ullmark to scouts for a potential trade, as that is the only thing that makes sense. Aside from that, Buffalo returns home from that mind-damaging two-game trip that essentially ended their year. We have to question Buffalo?s motivation here. This is a team of plodders that cannot keep up to the fast-pace of the Predators on their best day. Buffalo?s quickest player is Evan Rodrigues, a guy that sounds like he should be playing shortstop for the Padres. With a third stringer in net, plus returning home from a trip to the high altitude of Denver and subsequently to the Arizona desert, with a mindset that cannot be positive, Buffalo is ripe to get whacked here.
CALGARY -? +148 over Los Angeles
Regulation only. Playing a depleted team coming off its bye, Los Angeles lost 5-4 to Minnesota last night in OT. The Wild were without Jason Pominville and Zach Parise (mumps). Ryan White and Martin Hanzal, acquired in a trade with Arizona the night before, arrived at the arena after a long flight and physical exams less than two hours before the puck drop. Tyler Graovac was a late call-up to Minnesota from AHL affiliate Iowa and played his third game in three nights. Minnesota was up against big time last night yet scored five times on the great Jonathan Quick. One game is no big deal but the point is that the Kings evenly priced in Calgary is so wrong. Scoring four times in back-to-back games is a giant outlier for Los Angeles. They usually score once or twice on a good night.
Los Angeles has great metrics. That is something that is well-documented, especially this time of year when all the experts and talk radio shows are discussing trades, team weaknesses and strengths and which teams are legit or not. Yes indeed, we are quite aware of the Kings outstanding Corsi For numbers that has their stock much higher than it should be. Los Angeles does not have stable goaltending, whether it?s Ben Bishop, Jonathan Quick or Peter Budaj. They have one line that can score and a bunch of other castoffs and third and fourth liners. Outside of Drew Doughty, L.A.?s defense is a cluster of very average players. So yeah, the Kings somehow manage to have the puck more often than their opponents, which proves that hard work goes a long way but there is a reason the Kings missed the playoffs last year and likely will miss them again this year. Talent wise, man for man, L.A. is miles apart from the upper tier teams in the NHL. In this matchup, they are the second best team and it?s not even close.
An angle that the market often fades is teams? returning home from a trip and that applies here, as Calgary returns home from a 4-1 trip in which it picked up nine out of a possible 10 points. The Flames have won four straight and are 9-2-1 in their last 12, a league best and has launched themselves into 7th place in the West. The Flames went from barely hanging on to the 8th and final spot to becoming one of the hottest teams in the league. Brian Elliott has been a huge factor in that, as he has gone 7-1-1 over that span with a save % of .927. There are so many positives surrounding the Flames right now that includes a hot Jonny Gaudreau, balanced scoring, the outstanding acquisition of Michael Stone to solidify perhaps the best group of d-men in the league, solid goaltending and perhaps most importantly, they're playing with confidence and swag. The Scotiabank Saddledome will be one of the louder rinks in the league tonight and this energized Flames? team is very likely chomping at the bit to get back out there and put the Kings away. These two teams are NOT even but the game is priced like the Kings are the superior team. That is market perception working at its best in our favor. Invest
Lafayette vs. Loyola Maryland
Play: Loyola Maryland -10
Loyola has dropped three in a row, losing one game in OT and the other two by a grand total of just three points. But they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," in my opinion when hosting Lafayette on Tuesday night. The Leopards have been pretty bad on the defensive end this season, especially on the road where they allow 76 ppg on 47% shooting, while averaging just 63 ppg, themselves. Lafayette has a horrible rebound margin of minus-7.3 per game on the road and just one player averages over 4.1 rpg. Loyola-Maryland clobbered the Leopards on the glass in their 70-62 win in late January and I expect an even wider margin win tonight. Guards Jared Jones & Andre Walker combine for more than 30 ppg and Jones & Cam Gregory combine for nearly 14 rpg. I believe the Greyhounds will make it a season sweep and by a spread-covering margin.
Oklahoma St at Iowa St
Pick: Oklahoma St
We didn't see this coming with OSU, especially after the Cowboys dropped their first six out of the gate in Big 12 play. But OSU has evolved into an impressive UCLA-like offensive force now winging its way toward the Big Dance for first-year HC Brad Underwood (formerly SF Austin), as the Stillwater bunch has captured 9 of 10 SU with last Wednesday's recovery from a slow start at K-State. Surging soph G Jawun Evans has really caught fire, scoring 24 ppg in recent wins over Oklahoma and KSU. It's a different OSU than the one that lost at home to Iowa State back on Jan. 11, when the Cowboys were in the midst of their slow start in league action.
Fresno St at Boise St
Pick: Boise St
Boise State will play it's final home game versus the Fresno State Bulldogs Tuesday, and a win will bring the Broncos within a half a game of first place in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs are a few games back in the standings, and might be looking ahead to their final home game versus UNLV this weekend. Home court has been key in this series, as the road team has picked up just one win in the last 10 meetings. That was a 72-63 win for the Broncos at Fresno State in 2013. The Bulldogs have lost five straight trips to Boise, by an average margin of more than 10 points. The Broncos are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, while the Bulldogs have failed to cover in five of their last seven on the road. Boise State hasn't had any trouble scoring points lately, averaging 80.4 points on 45 percent shooting over it's last five games.
Oklahoma St @ Iowa St
Pick: Iowa St. -3.5
Two teams on the cusp of making it into the NCAA tournament meet on Tuesday night with a chance at making their case a little stronger for the selection committee. The Cowboys, who are 10-1 in their last 11 games, take on the streaking Cyclones, who have won five in a row including a weekend upset of No. 9 Baylor. Both teams can fill it up and the difference will likely come down to who plays better defense and who rebounds better.
The Cyclones (19-9, 11-5) are likely in the tourney. Head coach Steve Prohm?s team does have nine losses, but five are to ranked teams. Iowa State sports a huge win over Kansas earlier this year. That win ended the Jayhawks 51-game home winning streak. The Cyclones are a veteran bunch, too, that just two years ago won the conference tournament. They are led by guard Monte Morris (16.3 ppg, 6.0 apg) and big, bruising forward Deonte Burton (14.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg).
Oklahoma State (20-9, 9-7) is led by guard Jawun Evans who averages 18.2 points and 6.0 assists per game. The Cowboys are ninth in the nation in scoring average 85.7 points a night. While they do have 20 wins, Oklahoma State lacks a signature win and beating the Cyclones would give them a quality win. The Cowboys lost to Iowa State the first time around, 96-86, when Morris scored 30 points. Oklahoma State shot well but did not defend well, which has been their nemesis all season.
Ohio State at Penn State
Play: Penn State -1.5
Ohio St and Penn St come in tied at 6-10 in conference action. While the Nittany Lions were picked to finish near the bottom of the standings the Buckeyes season has been a major disappointment as they were projected to be an upper-half team. This is their only scheduled game for this season and Ohio St has won the last 4 games including knocking Penn St out of last years. Big 10 Tournament.
Ohio St is coming off an upset of Wisconsin as they were a 7 point underdog and won 83-73. They are however 2-5 SU/ATS on the conference road. Penn St is off 3 straight losses but in their last game at home they took Purdue to the wire in a 4 point loss which they covered. The Lions have cashed 5 of their last 6 at Bryce Jordan Center.
Penn St has a clear goal and that is to win their final two games of the regular season making them 16-15 into the conference tournament. With the home/road dichotomy clearly favoring the host, this being the final home game for the Penn St seniors and the visitor off a huge upset with their final home game against Indiana on deck the call goes to Penn St to get the win.
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Play: Penn State -1?
This is the final home game of the season for Penn St. and while the last home game is never a guaranteed win, a lot of that has to do with opponent and motivation. The Nittany Lions can finish the season over .500 with a victory here and at Iowa on Saturday to likely get into a lesser tournament after the end of the Big Ten Tournament which is a big deal to extend the season and carry it into next year. The Nittany Lions have lost three straight games including a home loss to Purdue in overtime and they have been very good at home despite a 9-6 record that seems pretty average. Penn St. is 4-4 at home in the conference that includes victories over Michigan St., Minnesota and Maryland. Ohio St. does not fall into that group and while the Buckeyes have the same conference record as Penn St., the season is much more disappointing because of lofty expectations that occur every season. The Buckeyes are coming off a home upset over Wisconsin but they are just 4-10 ATS this season following a victory. Additionally, they are just 3-7 on the road with two of those coming in the conference by just four points combined and the other coming at Navy.
Not too big of a matchup here in the Big South Conference Tournament, as I suspect Charleston Southern to roll. I don't know if I'd lay double digits with an 11-win team, either, but the Buccaneers should win.
What also should happen is a high-scoring game.
Both scoring defenses are horrendous, as Longwood allows 81 points per game, and Charleston Southern gives up 77.6 points per contest. Even more, is Longwood allowing 80.1 on the road and Southern giving up 74.9 at home. So that's 155 points.
These two scored 137 the first time they met, but then a whopping 164 points just the other day, in the season-finale.
Play this one high, as Charleston Southern pushes the tempo in the opening round, and Longwood comes along for the ride.
5* Longwood/Charleston Southern Over
Georgetown vs. Seton Hall
Play: Seton Hall -5?
The Seton Hall Pirates are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament right now. But they are coming on strong late in the season just as they did last year when they won the Big East Tournament to get in. Kevin Willard's squad just seems to be at their best when the pressure is the greatest.
The Pirates have gone 5-2 in their last seven games overall with one of their losses coming to Villanova. They have beaten fellow NCAA Tournament teams in Providence, Creighton and Xavier at home during this stretch. They also beat Georgetown on the road, which is tonight's opponent. They are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings with the Hoyas.
John Thompson is a dead man walking for the Hoyas. He has consistently underachieved, and they aren't going anywhere this season at 14-15. They appear to have quit down the stretch by going 1-5 in their last six games. They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three, losing by 17 at Creighton, getting upset at home by DePaul as 13.5-point favorites, and falling at St. John's.
Georgetown is 0-6 ATS after having lost three of its last four games this season. The Hoyas are 10-21 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Georgetown is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5 points. The Pirates are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
Buffalo vs. Ohio
Play: Buffalo +5
Akron has already clinched the MAC East title and these two teams, along with Kent, are battling for 2nd place. Ohio comes into this game with a 10-6 conference record while Buffalo is 9-7. The Bulls have been solid on the road winning 3 straight and putting together a 5-3 road record in MAC play. Two of their three road losses in MAC play have come by a single point. Speaking of the road, the visitor in this series has won 6 of the last 9 meetings outright in this series. That trend continued earlier this year when Ohio topped Buffalo on the road by a final score of 74-72. Buffalo blew a 14 point half time lead in that game shooting just 37% and they making just 15 FT?s to 24 for Ohio. Even with that the game was tight because Buffalo destroyed Ohio on the boards (+12 overall & +10 offensive rebounds). We expect that to happen again here as the Bulls are one of the top rebounding teams in the MAC while Ohio is one of the worst. Expect Buffalo to shoot much better than the first meeting as the Bulls have hit 47% of their shots over the last five games and this team actually shoots better on the road than they do at home this season. The Bulls are playing well with a 6-2 record their last 8. Ohio started the MAC season with 3 straight wins but since losing star forward Antonio Campbell (16 PPG & 9 RPG) for the season in mid January the Bobcats are just 7-5, including 3 losses at home. We rate these teams almost dead even right now and the value is with Buffalo tonight.
Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech
Play: Georgia Tech -2
I really like the value here with the Yellow Jackets as a short home favorite against the Panthers. Both teams come in having lost their last two games, but I feel Georgia Tech is in the much better spot here at home, where they are 14-4 on the season. On top of that it's their final home game of the season, which adds a little extra to this one.
Pittsburgh just played their final home game and got destroyed by North Carolina. I just don't see them bouncing back here, especially with a much bigger game on deck against Virginia. The Panthers are also not that great of a road team, as they are just 4-8 on the season. Yellow Jackets are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 after losing 2 of their last 3 games.
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Play: Texas A&M -4
Texas A&M has lost 3 straight on the road but I like their chances here tonight against an awful Mizzu team who sits at 2-14 in conference play. The Aggies are at least nine points better than the Tigers when they meet in Missouri on Tuesday. Although Texas A&M is a longshot for any sort of postseason invitation, it can make a case by winning its final two SEC games to break even in conference play, then with a solid showing in the conference tournament. The Aggies could benefit from a flat spot by Missouri, which has lost four straight but saw solid efforts against Kentucky and Ole Miss go for naught. I doubt Mizzu gets up for this game and I see Texas A&M by 10 or more tonight!
Texas A&M vs. Missouri
Pick: Missouri +4
The set-up: The 15-13 Texas A&M Aggies will end their regular season on Saturday at home versus Kentucky but should (?) be able to win in their final road game of the season here, at 7-21 Missouri Tigers, who are 2-14 in the SEC.
Texas A&M: The Aggies are coming off an 'ugly' 56-53 win over Alabama, a game in which neither team shot better than 34 percent from the floor and the two squads combined to shoot 8-for-35 from three-point range. Texas A&M head coach Billy Kennedy can't be too pleased with this year's record, after A&M won 28 games last season in reaching the Sweet 16. The fact is, the Aggies have really underachieved this season. Kennedy has two 6-10 centers in Davis (14.4 & 6.8 ) and Troch-Morelos (8.1 & 5.2) plus two 6-9 forwards in Williams (12.0 & 7.9) and Hogg (12.0 & 5.1). He also has a quality PG in Gilder (13.7-4.0-3.9). Why is this team just two games above.500 and 7-9 in SEC play?
Missouri: Head coach Kim Anderson is pretty much at loss with the way things have gone for him, here at his alma mater. He led the Central Missouri Mules to back-to-back MIAA championships and three appearances in the NCAA Division II Final Four in 2007, 2009 and won the championship in 2014. On April 28, 2014 it was announced that he would take over the job vacated by Frank Haith at the University of Missouri, his alma mater. Missouri had won 20-plus games for six straight years when he took over (five NCAA appearances) but the Tigers went 10-21 and 9-23 in his first two seasons, going 3-15 each season in SEC play. Now it's 7-21 overall, including 2-14 in SEC play with two games left.
The pick: A&M is the better team but as noted above, has not come close to getting the most out of its talent. Eight Missouri players see regular "PT" and chip in between 5.4 and 12.2 PPG. When these teams met at College Station, the Tigers lost by just three, despite A&M shooting 49.1%. A&M has nothing to play for here and I expect Missouri to pull the "upset!"
St Bonaventure vs. Davidson
Play: Over 148
A pair of defensively challenged teams play as Davidson hosts St. Bonaventure. The Bonnies have gone over in three straight and four of their last five games. They have scored 70 or more in eight straight games as they rely on Adams and Mobley in the backcourt. Their problems on the defensive side have been slowing down the opponent with five of their last seven scoring 70 points or more. The Wildcats don't have a problem putting up points with Jack Gibbs and Peyton Aldridge. They also have an issue with defense going over in three straight games. Three of their last four home games have seen the opponent put up at least 70. The last two times these two played each other the scores were 90-86 and 97-85. I think this one could be fun to watch.
DePaul vs. Providence
Play: Over 135
Even though the Friars are seeking revenge for a loss at DePaul earlier this season, they also are coming off of a huge 4-game stretch where they have beaten Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Marquette in succession. In this type of situation I simply can't see Providence bringing a very strong effort on the defensive end for this game. The Friars are hosting the worst team in the conference and could be flat after all the strong teams they have recently faced. As for DePaul, they've been a hot shooting team recently and the Blue Demons also have confidence against Providence as a result of beating them last month. DePaul comes into this game having shot nearly 50% from the field in their last 3 games combined. As usual though, the Blue Demons defense leaves a lot to be desired. Teams are shooting 47% overall and 37% from three point land against DePaul this season. The over is 6-2 this season (and 16-8 the last 3 seasons combined) in their games with a posted total in the 130s. As for the Friars, the over is a fantastic 6-1 in recent seasons (and 17-5 long-term) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the over is 11-5 the L3 seasons in Providence's games against teams with a losing record.
DePaul vs. Providence
Play: Over 135
Even though the Friars are seeking revenge for a loss at DePaul earlier this season, they also are coming off of a huge 4-game stretch where they have beaten Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Marquette in succession. In this type of situation I simply can't see Providence bringing a very strong effort on the defensive end for this game. The Friars are hosting the worst team in the conference and could be flat after all the strong teams they have recently faced. As for DePaul, they've been a hot shooting team recently and the Blue Demons also have confidence against Providence as a result of beating them last month. DePaul comes into this game having shot nearly 50% from the field in their last 3 games combined. As usual though, the Blue Demons defense leaves a lot to be desired. Teams are shooting 47% overall and 37% from three point land against DePaul this season. The over is 6-2 this season (and 16-8 the last 3 seasons combined) in their games with a posted total in the 130s. As for the Friars, the over is a fantastic 6-1 in recent seasons (and 17-5 long-term) in games where they are a home favorite in a range of 9.5 to 12 points. Also, the over is 11-5 the L3 seasons in Providence's games against teams with a losing record.
Item: The LHG at Iowa State means more than most (but Oklahoma State is a beast right now)
There are not many Senior Nights on this week?s board that bring as much of a legacy as the final bow-out for seven Iowa State players this evening, including four starters. If it seemed like Frank Mason had a rather unusual career arc for Kansas, which got celebrated in Lawrence last night, how about Monte Morris making start #115 his evening? Meanwhile Nazareth Mitrou-Long is finishing his fifth season, getting a medical red-shirt after appearing in only eight games LY; Matt Thomas is closing out a career that saw him start 15 games as a freshman back in 2013-14; and while Deonte Burton began his career with Marquette, this will be game #55 and start #36 for him as a Cyclone.
It has been quite a run for the group, State winning at least 23 games in each of the seasons, and because of their leadership and balance (all four of the seniors are averaging in double figures), they have a chance to make a run in the Big Dance. Here is how floor leader Morris sets the Tuesday stage ? ?I?ll probably cry in the locker room when coach plays our video ? our highlight tape. He plays a personal one for the guys. Even on the plane coming back from Texas Tech (last week), I got emotional just knowing our flights are winding down together.?
It will not be easy tonight, however. Remember all of those great things written about the UCLA offense in the Friday edition, and how the Bruins were elevating to a historical level? Behind the skill sets of Jawun Evans, Jeffrey Carroll and Phil Forte, who are now getting comfortable in the first season of Brad Underwood?s schemes, the Oklahoma State offense has also become something special -
2017 Offensive Efficiency
1. UCLA 125.5
2. OSU 125.3
That isn?t just rating the Cowboys as #2 for this season, but at #3 over the past decade, only 2015 Wisconsin scoring at a more efficient clip. As the chemistry comes together they have built a 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS run, the only loss in the span a close defeat vs. Baylor, and who knows just how high the ceiling is.
Let?s go to Underwood for more on that ? ?We?re a good basketball team and have we peaked? Not yet. We have a chance to be an exceptional basketball team and we?re showing that.?
These two put on an offensive showcase in Stillwater earlier, Iowa State winning 96-86, and I don?t see the flow changing all that much ? while it is the #1 and #18 offenses on the court, the defenses are far less of a force, the Cyclones at #46 and the Cowboys at #111. And when those defenses do cause a miss note that each has been weak at clearing the boards, ISU #275 in the nation in defensive rebounding, and OSU even worse at #317.
So how does this one flow? I believe the same way, and it will put #750 Iowa State/Oklahoma State Over (9:00 Eastern) in pocket, with 161 the going morning rate (a shopper can get to 160 right now), and this one good to 162. I expect an intense game, a fast-paced game, and also a close game - these teams suffered one loss each in February, by a combined five points. What does the latter element mean? An opportunity for some late scrambling, and this duo just happens to be #1 (OSU at 80.3) and #3 (ISU at 73.0) in the Big 12 in free throw shooting. Meanwhile the willingness to chase stems from the fact that the teams are #1 and #2 in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting, so the final furlongs of this race could pack a lot of points.
My play is on the Utah Jazz, as I'm being very cautious not to fall into the trap of playing the home underdog Oklahoma City Thunder. Rather than take the underdog that looks far too appealing, I'm siding with the oddsmakers in this one.
While the Thunder does have Russell Westbrook, the Jazz are an overall better outfit, which is why their favored.
And if you look closely, you see both are on three-game win streaks.
But Utah has beaten Portland, and won at Milwaukee and at Washington. The Thunder, on the other hand, are in after wins against the Knicks, Lakers and Pelicans. Talk about three stooges, you couldn't make an all-star squads from those three teams and come up with a roster that would beat the Thunder.
Utah is the better team, and the right side.
4* JAZZ
Warriors vs. Wizards
Play: Wizards +6?
The All Star Break couldn't have come at a worse time for the Wiz who are 0-2 post after going 18-3 heading into the break. Wiz should be completely focused here having lost 9 of 10 in the series and catching the Warriors in a tough B2B after playing in Philly last night. The always overpriced Warriors are 1-4 ATS L5 and could care less about margin in the second half. John Wall and Bradley Beal a very underrated back court. Wiz straight up.
Nuggets/Bulls Over 222
Chicago has been playing at a faster pace since trading away Gibson, as it's forced them to go more of a small ball lineup with a stretch 4 instead of your traditional power forward. They put up 128 at home against the Suns in the first game back from the break and 117 last time out against the Cavs. I see no reason why the offense will slow down against a Nuggets team that has allowed 105 or more points in 8 consecutive games. Chicago defense hasn't been horrible, but Denver also likes to play at a fast pace and can certainly score at 110.6 ppg. The Bulls also figure to save some of that energy on defense for Thursday's big showdown at home against the Warriors.
Nuggets vs. Bulls
Play: Nuggets +3
The betting public is all over the Chicago Bulls today, yet this line has dropped from 4.5 down to 3. I agree with the move and the big money being on the Nuggets to drop this line. The Bulls are coming off four straight victories, including a 117-99 upset in Cleveland against a Cavaliers team that was without Lebron James. The Bulls are primed for a letdown now here tonight at home against the Nuggets. Denver has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Denver is 24-8 ATS in its last 32 road games off an ATS loss. Chicago is 8-19 ATS off a road win over the last two seasons. The Bulls are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Hornets vs. Lakers
Pick: Charlotte
I've taken the Hornets in every game since the All-Star Break. The first time did not end well as they blew a large fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime at Detroit. But after failing to cover there, they won at Sacramento Saturday and then w/o rest, played the Clippers tough Sunday. It was a wire to wire cover there as 10-pt dogs. Incredbly, the Hornets are now a league-worst 0-5 SU in overtime games this year (were 4-0 last year!). I still believe this team is set to ascend in the Eastern Conference standings, so a logically that means they should beat the lowly Lakers Tuesday. I think they will - with "room to spare."
The Lakers have already exceeded last year's win total (17), but that's quite a low bar to get excited about. After a respectable 10-10 SU start under 1st year HC Luke Walton, this once proud franchise has gone 9-31 since the start of December. Headlines were made last week when it was announced the Magic Johnson was being brought back into the fold, to run the team. What a sad, desperate callback to the past. The reality of the matter is Magic can't help this team's woeful defense, which is 29th in efficiency. The Lakers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games. The last three losses have all been by double digits.
Charlotte is top 10 in defensive efficiency and has actually outscored its opponents this season. So I feel their record is misleading. Yes, it's been an ugly stretch. But they easily could have won their last four games. Two of the saw them blow a double digit lead in the 4Q. Then there was the OT loss to the Clippers Sunday. When favored this year, the Hornets have won 24 of 39 games. Lay the short number.
