Tuesday: Play of the Day is Fairfield

superbook

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St. Joe's never showed up last night, I was expecting a close game but never in my wildest dreams would have thought this would be a blowout. I'm still not sure what happened.

My Play of the Day record is heading toward 50% fast with three straight losses. You guys might want to start fading my picks.

Play of the Day record: 11-9-2

I've got a good feeling about tonight's MAAC match-up:

Fairfield -4.5

Fairfield can play well when motivated and the combination of revenge, playing a conference game at home and playing against a team which doesn't play well on the road should hopefully lead the Stags to a double digit victory.

Fairfield is looking to avenge their 77-79 loss at Niagara two weeks ago .In that game, Niagara got off to an eleven point lead at the half as a result of hitting 70% from the field in the 20 minutes. Fairfield played well, shooting 48% from the field and 44% from the arc but couldn?t match Niagara?s incredible 57% from both the field (24-42) and from 3 points (8-14).

Fairfield is a bit of an enigma, they have talented players in senior forward Sam Spann (13ppg, 6rpg) and cousins Dai Geng (11ppg, 5 rpg) and Ajou Deng (15ppg, 9 rpg) but they don?t always seem to show up. The Deng cousins both go about 6-10 and have the ability to take over a game if they get so motivated.

I think Fairfield will have the motivation tonight to avenge their earlier loss at Niagara and they can push their MAAC record at 6-5 in a wide-open race in the conference (Marist and Rider sit atop the MAAC at 7-3).

Fairfield is 1-6 in non-conference games but 5-5 in the MAAC.

Here?s why I think Fairfield will win:

- after losing their first 3 home games, the Stags have won their next 4

- Niagara hasn?t played well on the road with a record of 3-7

- In their last 8 games, Niagara has always lost after a Win and they won last time out at home vs Siena.

Here?s why I think Fairfield will cover:

- In their L10 games Fairfield is 6-2-1 ATS while Niagara is 3-6 (no lines for all games)

- Since the appearance of Uconn transfer Ajou Deng, Fairfield is 3-0 SU and ATS in home games, beating St. Peter?s by 20, Rider by 12 and Loyola Maryland by 24. Not that these are the best MAAC teams, but it demonstrates that they know how to win by a decent margin.

- On the road, Niagara?s opponents are averaging 80.4 points to Niagara?s 71.3.

- Fairfield shot 46% from the field in their L5 while Niagara?s porous defense has allowed its opponents to shoot 49% from the field and 37% from the arc in their L5.

- The Fairfield team likes to play in the new Arena at Harbor Yard in Bridgeport. In their five games since moving their home court there, they've averaged 50% shooting from the field.
 
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superbook

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Another factor I've been looking at now that the season is halfway done are Sagerin ratings vs the opening line.

For example, the Sagerin "pure points" would make Fairfield with their home court advantage a 3.5 point favorite (73.48-69.82 = 3.66) in tonight's contest.

And since Vegas doesn't hand out points, why did the opening line come out as -5.5? IMO it's because Vegas thinks Fairfield has a bigger advantage here than the Sagerin numbers would suggest.

Conversely, looking at the stats I like Penn tonight at LaSalle. Penn is 6-1 ATS on the road, has won 7 of their last 8 SU, and is looking to clinch a Big 5 Championship tonight with a perfect 4-0 record.

Sagerin ratings would make Penn a 3.21 point favorite, so why did the line open at 1? IMO because Vegas thinks LaSalle is going to win.

This discrepancy keeps me off of Penn tonight.

gl
 

Nickelback

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I have to disagree with this point about the Penn game. Does Vegas think that LaSalle will win the game?!?! We have no idea who Vegas thinks will win. . . only that they set the line as Penn laying a single point in order to try and balance action (and no, I didn't see the HBO special last night!). LaSalle has played Xavier and Dayton VERY tough at home losing by only 2 and 4 respectively. . . therefore if LaSalle was getting 3 or more at home, everyone would be on them. If Penn was getting 2 or 3 points for this game, then everyone would be on Penn due largely to how they have played lately and coming off a nice win against St. Joes.

I've used Sagarin ratings in the past and usually will only point out distinct differences between the ratings and the Vegas line. . . usually 7 points or more. . . not merely 2 points which is a common difference between this rating system and the actual Vegas line!
 

bear

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Superbook,

Ya gotta W here bro! ( I hope)
You're right Ffld knows how to win by double digits.
They.... Are......... the better team here!
Number is low cause of their recent Psycho play!
Stats: offense edge and D edge to Ffld !
O'toole has 4 Ts in last 4 games (who 's frustrated)
They like Harbor Yard!
Who's this Dai Geng :D

good luck tonight

bear
 
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