Tuesday: Play of the Day

[superbook]

I finally found a play I like enough to make it a Play of the Day.

Play of the Day record: 8-5-2
Monday's sides: 1-2
Sunday's sides: 3-0

Northern Illinois +2

Sagerin has Northern Illinois and Miami (OH) as a PK when the Huskies are at home. But Miami is really struggling on the road and IMO Northern Illinois should win this one straight up.

The Redskins have lost their last 3 games at DeKalb and according to the Miami OH website, they haven't won on the Huskies home court since 1984. The home team has won the last four meetings (all that are listed by covers)

Miami is 1-7 on the road and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five away, including an ugly 60-23 loss at Dayton (Miami shot 8 for 60 from the field) and they're coming off a 85-61 beating at Ohio where they only hit 17 of 57 FGs. These games contribute to Miami only averaging 34.9% from the field in their 8 road games.

Northern Illinois is a respectable 2-2 ATS at home and a surprising 3-3 ATS away. In their last five the Huskies shot 47% from the field.

Northern Illinois played well at Toledo in their last game, outrebounding Toledo 45-23 and shooting 47% but still managed to lose 89-80, as a result of too many fouls and turnovers.

Northern Illinois is playing decent ball and until Miami can demonstrate they can play on the road, I'm going against them.


Regular Play:

Syracuse +3

I don't think Coach Boeheim was too happy about the Orangemen's loss to unranked Tennessee last Saturday night. Syracuse rallied from 17 points down but lost 66-62 when they couldn't make some key shots.

Deshaun Williams is one of Syracuse's top scorers but he is having real problems hitting his 3s, making just 8 of 39 in his last five games.

After the game, Syracuse flew straight from Tennessee to Pittsburgh where they have spent the last couple of days getting ready for Tuesday's game.

Boeheim knows that another loss will knock his team far down in the rankings and I'm sure he really wants to win this one. The Orangemen also barely got by Notre Dame 56-51 in the previous game, not covering the spread.

Syracuse is a decent road team at 3-2 ATS while Pitt is only 4-3-1 ATS at home.

Panthers are coming off a nice one point win at Georgetown and shooting 47% from the field while holding opponents to only 38%.

I'll take the motivated Orangemen coming off the loss and the points.


I'm still looking at the Manhattan-Marist game but I'm a little gunshy after two terrible calls on MAAC games today.

gl

 

[dr. freeze]

sagarin would make this one at N Illinois -1.5

just looked at it and decided it is worth a play.....do not know much about the conference but saw more things pointing towards N Illi than Ohio.......good luck

 

[superbook]

Dr. F -- thanks.

You're right, using Sagerin "pure points":

Northern Illinois = 70.09 + 4.29 (home adv) = 74.38

Miami, OH = 73.35

Difference = 1.03

 

[Buckman]

SB went thru the team stats N. Ill looks good my only concern is wagering on two teams going absolutely nowhere fast. Miami doesn't score but N. Ill gives up a lot of points. I like the play but I get a little nervous playing the lower echleon teams. FWIW:shrug:

 

[superbook]

Buckman -- I know it's a mistake to ask bad teams to win for you, even against other bad teams. I made that mistake again yesterday...twice.

Here's a couple of better teams for you to look at. Adding:


Marist +8

Marist at Manhattan is a game to decide sole possession of first place in the MAAC. Ten days ago Marist beat Manhattan in Poughkeepsie 58-56.

Manhattan will be geared up for revenge on their home court but I think Marist will keep this one close.

Marist has won seven of the last eight meetings vs. Manhattan.

When Marist loses they don't get blown out; in their last 10 games they're 7-3. Their three losses were by 1,4 and 6.


Iowa -6

Why is Iowa favored by six after they've lost their last seven ATS? Because Vegas knows we're suckers for points!

Iowa is coming off a humiliating home loss to Northwestern on saturday night. It was so bad, Iowa coach Alford had to publicly apologize to the fans for his team's play (Iowa shot 16-52 or 30% from the field).

I think Iowa will come out to give the Spartans a midwestern asswhuppin' tonite.

Michigan State has had their own troubles, they had lost five straight ATS until winning the last two games, beating identical -8 point lines vs stinkers Penn State and Purdue by 4 and 1 respectively.

MSU is in trouble in terms of players: with the loss of back-up forward Adam Wolfe, the Spartans are down to only seven scholarship players of which three are true freshmen. And one of these freshmen, starter Alan Anderson may not play tonite due to a knee injury suffered last saturday in their win over Penn State.

Michigan State has won the Big Ten the last four years, Iowa will take out their frustration and try to right the ship tonite at home vs. the conference champs.


gl

 

[superbook]

Adding two more, yes I know I'm playing too many games:

Rutgers +7

Ohio University -12.5

 

[dr. freeze]

yeah your right....i am used to adding 4.5 onto everything and just looked at it quick......anyways good luck today

 

[Too_Fast23]

superbook, since you are with out a doubt the king of the MAAC, I just wanted to get your insight on the Marist vs Manhattan game.....At a glance I really like Marist here getting 7.5 pts....they've proven they got what it takes to beat a team with the caliber of the Manhattan squad, as they beat them by 2 pts not to long ago, any insight would be much appreciated...thanks!

 

[superbook]

Somewhere in the middle of this thread I posted that I liked Marist tonight. It's the fifth one down.

IMO Marist and Manhattan match up pretty well and this should be a real dogfight.

Only other fact not presented above: Marist is 12-5 for the season, their worst loss of the year was at UMass on 11/24 when they lost by 7 points.

They always seem to be there at the end of the game, combined with the fact that they've beaten Manhattan 7 of their last 8 makes me like Marist tonite.

gl

 

[joebell]

Iowa / Mich St.

Iowa / Mich St.

I love the Iowa pick...you are exaclty right, vegas knows we love the points. When the team got back from N-western on Sat. Alford made them shoot and run the stairs until 3:30AM, apparently the team responded very well in this workout. Alford has already said that he is starting Kentucky t-fer Ryan Hogan, this kid can flat ass shoot the ball when he is on. I have been waiting for Alford to wake up and play him. Hogan has played limited minutes but has lit it up in the last few games. Iowa will come out fired up, the crowd will be into it, and as SB said they will lay a midwestern ass-whoopin on State. Iowa 76 - State 59
Just my thoughts...
Good Luck tonight
JB:toast:

 

[redsfann]

FWIW, Iowa played at Northwestern Saturday night and got pounded.

Joebell--

Either you are an huge Iowa fan living somewhere else, or you are a fellow Iowan. That info. you've posted is easily available to anyone who looks hard enough for it, but its also nice to just be able to pick up the paper and read about over coffee in the morning.....

That being said, I don't care if Alford starts Brody Boyd tonight at guard, this team has serious problems all over the court. Teams have figured out the way to beat us is to triple-team Evans and make Recker work for his shots. Also, its evident by watching these players on the court that they do not like one another, nor do they like Alford. There is absolutely no chemistry on this team at all.
Yes, the students are back from break and will be all fired up due to the game being on ESPN, but the crowd doesn't play the game nor coach it.
I'm staying far away from this one tonight, but if I had to choose a side, I'd take the Spartans plus the generous 6.5 points.
Good luck everyone!

 

[joebell]

Redsfan-
Yes I am a huge hawk fan, and have done very well betting against them for the last few games, however I feel this team has put this behind them and will gel tonight. Just my thoughts, trying to share them
JB

 

[redsfann]

Cool, joebell. Good luck tonight with your Iowa play....

 

[hellah10]

Northern is a good pick...they are a rebounding MACHINE. They had 23 off. rebounds on Toledo last week...23 OFF BOARDS! Thats unheard of. It isnt like Toledo has small people on the court...I was impressed with the way they overpowered Toledo in the loss.

 

[superbook]

Straight up winner with Northern Illinois over Miami, OH

Play of the Day record now 9-5-2

Nice wins on Marist and Ohio University, terrible losses by the Orangemen and Rutgers, and somehow Iowa found a way to only win by four despite shooting 61% from the field and getting five fouls on MSU's two big men by the middle of the second half.

Sides today: 2-3


I hope you guys cherry-picked my MAC/MAAC picks and faded the others.

From now on I'm sticking with the conferences I know: MAC, MAAC, Ivy, Horizon and maybe a couple of West Coast games.

I'll be back shortly with Wednesday's Play of the Day.

 

[Teddy KGB]

Hey Super,
it worked out okay for us last night being against each other and we each got 1 loss and 1 win