THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Cincinnati (6-7) at Chicago Cubs (7-5)
Two N.L. Central foes renew their rivalry for the first time in 2008, as the Reds send ace Aaron Harang (1-1, 2.14 ERA) to the hill to battle the Cubs? Ryan Dempster (1-0, 0.69). Cincinnati took Monday off after getting swept over the weekend in Pittsburgh, losing a pair of one-run games on Friday and Saturday, then getting blasted 9-1 on Sunday. The Reds are 2-4 on the road this year. Also, they?re in funks of 2-6 on the road (2-4 this year) and 2-6 as a favorite. The Cubs capped a 4-2 road trip with Sunday?s 6-5, 10-inning victory in Philadelphia. Going back to April 5, Chicago is on a 6-2 roll.
These teams split their 18-game season series last year, though the Cubs did win three of the last four. Also, the road team went 7-4 in their final 11 battles of 2007. The Reds improved to 16-5 in Harang?s last 21 road starts and 20-6 in Harang?s last 26 as a road underdog when the hard-throwing right-hander dominated the Brewers in Thursday?s 4-1 victory in Milwaukee. Harang, who gave up just a run on five hits with no walks and three strikeouts against the Brewers has surrendered just five earned runs in three starts spanning 21 innings. Harang is 8-3 with a 4.44 ERA in 15 career starts against Chicago, including 4-0 with a 4.65 ERA in eight outings at Wrigley Field. Last year, he faced the Cubs six times, going 3-2 with a 4.76 ERA. One more positive for the Reds: They?re 5-0 in Harang?s last five starts at Wrigley. Dempster has made a very successful transition from the bullpen to the starting rotation thus far, yielding just two runs (one earned) on four hits and four walks with 10 strikeouts in two starts spanning 13 innings. One Wednesday in Pittsburgh, Dempster threw seven shutout innings and gave up just a single hit and two walks, with the Cubs needing 14 innings to pull out a 6-4 victory. In his one home start this season, Dempster held the Brewers to two runs (one earned) on three hits in six innings, winning 6-3.
Dempster is 3-3 with a 5.00 ERA and five saves in 31 appearances (seven starts) against the Reds. He hasn?t started against Cincy since 2005 when with the Marlins. The under is 6-1 in Harang?s last seven starts overall. Also, the under is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 5-2 in the Reds? last seven overall. However, the over is 4-2 in Chicago?s last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston (8-6) at Cleveland (5-8)
One night after watching closer Joe Borowski implode in a tough loss to Boston, the Indians will try to bounce back when they send Paul Byrd (0-2, 11.05) to the mound opposite knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (1-1, 3.27) in battle of grizzled veterans. Borowski blew a 4-3 ninth-inning lead on Monday night, giving up four hits and three runs in just 2/3 of an inning to lose 6-4. Cleveland has lost eight of its last 11, including four of the last five overall and four of five at home. Meanwhile, Boston is now in the midst of its first three-game winning streak of the season. The Red Sox are now 10-5 against the Tribe since the start of last season, including four straight wins going back to Game 5 of last year?s American League Championship Series. Going back even further, Boston is 12-5 in its last 17 games in Cleveland.
Byrd got pummeled in Thursday afternoon?s 9-5 loss at the Angels, giving up six runs on five hits (three earned runs) over just three innings. The right-hander, whose first two starts have come on the road, returns to Progressive Field, where he went 8-4 last year despite a beefy 5.68 ERA.
Byrd is 4-2 with a 4.12 ERA in seven career outings against the Red Sox, Last year, he faced them twice, giving up two runs (one earned) in six innings in an 8-4 road win in May, then allowing two runs on six hits in five innings in a 7-3 playoff victory in mid-October. Cleveland is 3-1 in his four starts against Boston the last two years (2-0 at home). Wakefield wobbled a bit in Thursday?s home start against Detroit, yielding three hits and five walks over five innings, but he surrendered just two runs (one earned) and recorded a 12-6 victory. Wakefield is 9-8 with a 4.50 ERA In 23 games (18 starts) against the Indians, including 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA In 11 appearances (10 starts) in Cleveland. However, last year Wakefield faced the Indians (once in the regular season, once in the playoffs), and went 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA.
The over is 6-1-2 in Byrd?s last nine starts overall, 7-1-1 in his last nine at home, 3-0-1 in his last four against Boston and 5-2-2 in Wakefield?s last nine overall. Furthermore, including last night?s high-scoring affair, the over is 6-1-2 in the last nine series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER