THE SPORTS ADVISORS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (31-28) at N.Y. Yankees (28-29)
Joba Chamberlain (1-2, 2.28 ERA) makes his much-anticipated first major-league start when he leads the Yankees against Roy Halladay (6-5, 2.93) and the Blue Jays in the opener of a three-game series in the Bronx.
New York capped a six-game road trip with Monday?s 6-5 loss at Minnesota, once again dropping the Pinstripers below .500. The Yankees have followed up an 8-1 run with consecutive losses. Also, even though Joe Girardi?s club has won five straight at home, it is still just 14-12 at Yankee Stadium this season.
Toronto took Monday off after suffering consecutive tough one-run losses to the Angels in Anaheim on Saturday (3-2) and Sunday (4-3). Prior to those two defeats, the Jays had been on an 8-1 run, and they?re still 14-6 in their last 20, including 9-4 on the highway. They?re also 7-2 in their last nine against right-handed starters, but 2-7 in their last nine divisional contests and 4-11 in their last 15 series openers.
These teams opened the season against one another in the Bronx, with New York winning two games by identical 3-2 scores, sandwiched around a 5-2 Toronto win.
Chamberlain, who will reportedly be limited to 45 pitches tonight, makes the move from set-up man in the bullpen to the rotation. In 23 2/3 relief innings this season, the hard-throwing right-hander gave up six runs (all earned) on 16 hits, walking 11 and striking out 30. He?s 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA in nine appearances at home.
Since being called up to the big leagues last season, Chamberlain has appeared in six games against the Blue Jays, yielding just one unearned run, three hits and five walks in nine innings, striking out 14.
Halladay is 3-0 with a 2.28 ERA in his last three outings, with the last two being gems: a complete-game four-hit, no-walk effort in a 7-1 home win over the Royals on May 23 and an eight-inning, one-run, eight-hit performance in a 2-1 victory at Oakland on Wednesday. Halladay, who has earned a decision in each of his 11 starts, has allowed exactly one run in five of his starts. However, he?s only 3-4 with a 3.07 ERA in seven starts on the road.
Halladay took the ball for Toronto in New York on Opening Night, giving up three runs on seven hits in a 3-2 loss. Prior to that, the Jays had gone 7-1 in the veteran right-hander?s previous eight starts against the Yankees. In his career, Halladay is 10-5 with a 3.03 ERA in 27 games (25 starts) versus the Bronx Bombers, including 5-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 16 appearances (14 starts) at Yankee Stadium.
With Halladay on the hill, the under is on streaks of 7-2 overall, 6-1 on the road, 6-0 on grass, 19-7 on Tuesdays, 16-5 as an underdog, 8-3 when he faces New York and 5-1 when he pitches in Yankee Stadium.
The under is 29-12-1 in Toronto?s last 42 games overall, 13-5 in their last 18 on grass and 45-21-3 in their last 69 on the highway. For New York, the under is on streaks of 11-3 against right-handed starters and 20-7 versus the A.L. East, but the over is 3-1 in its last four overall and 6-2 in the last eight at Yankee Stadium. Finally, the under is 4-0 in the last four head-to-head clashes and 25-10-2 in the past 37 meetings at the Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Tampa Bay (35-22) at Boston (35-25)
The top two teams in the American League East kick off a three-game series at Fenway Park, with both sending young right-handers to the mound as Tampa Bay?s Matt Garza (4-1, 3.78) opposes Boston rookie Justin Masterson (1-0, 1.46).
The Red Sox return home following a 10-game road trip that began with five losses in six games at Oakland and Seattle. They then went to Baltimore over the weekend and won three of four, the lone setback coming in Monday?s 6-3 loss. Boston owns the best home record at 21-5, and the last time it was in Fenway, it swept a seven-game homestand. In fact, the Sox have won 10 straight at home going back to a three-game sweep of the Rays from May 2-4.
Tampa Bay was idle Monday after taking three of four games at home against the White Sox, losing the series opener then winning the next three by a combined tally of 8-4. The surprising Rays are on an 18-6 run, but much of that damage has come at home. On the highway, the Rays are just 14-19 this year and 43-97 in their last 140 road contests dating to 2006.
The host has won all six meetings between these division rivals this year, with the Rays getting outscored 26-10 in their three-game series at Fenway a month ago. Boston has absolutely owned Tampa, winning 95 of the last 138 meetings, going an astounding 42-9 in the last 51 battles at Fenway Park.
Garza has given up two earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings in five of his last six starts. In his last two trips to the hill (both at home), the right-hander beat the Orioles 2-0 (7 1/3 scoreless innings) and the Rangers 5-3 (two runs allowed in eight innings with a season-high 10 strikeouts).
Garza?s struggles in 2008 have come away from Tropicana Field, where he is 1-1 with a 5.64 ERA in four starts, with the Rays losing his two no-decisions as well. But in three career starts against Boston, Garza is 2-0 with a 3.45 ERA. The two wins came at Fenway Park in 2006 and 2007, with the one no-decision occurring at home on April 25. In the latter contest, Garza gave up three runs on five hits in five innings, with the Rays eventually winning, 5-4.
Masterson is making his third trip to the big leagues this season. He was outstanding his first two career major-league starts (both at Fenway), holding the Angels to one run on two hits in six innings and Kansas City to a single run on three hits in 6 1/3 innings. He got a no-decision in his team?s 7-5 loss to the Angels, while he defeated the Royals 2-1. The big right-hander has actually allowed more walks (seven) than hits (five), while he?s struck out nine in 12 1/3 innings.
The under is 6-1 in Garza?s last seven starts overall, 2-1 in his two road outings, 2-0-1 in his three career starts versus Boston and 5-0 in his last five against the A.L. East.
The Rays have stayed under the total in five straight games. However, the over is 8-3-1 in their last 12 on the road. For Boston, the under is on streaks of 4-1-2 overall, 5-1-3 vs. the A.L. East and 20-8-2 on Tuesdays. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings at Fenway Park (3-0 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
