SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (50-40) at Philadelphia (48-42)
The Phillies continue their 10-game homestand at Citizens Bank Park when they send ace Cole Hamels (9-5, 3.22 ERA) to the mound to open a three-game series against the Cardinals. Philadelphia has followed a four-game winning streak by losing three in a row, all to the division-rival Mets. With Monday?s 10-9 setback to New York, the Phillies have now lost 14 of their last 21 overall, and they?re 1-8 in their last nine at home.
St. Louis, which was idle Monday, hands the ball to Joel Pineiro (2-4, 4.52) tonight. The Cardinals come into this one having lost four of their last six, though they are 9-5 in their last 14 on the road. Tony LaRussa?s squad is also 23-11 in its last 34 games against winning teams, 11-4 in its last 15 versus the N.L. East and 10-3 in its last 13 following an off day.
The Phillies handed St. Louis its worst defeat of the season back on June 13, winning 20-2, but the Cardinals came back to win the final two games of the series. Still, Philadelphia is 10-5 in the last 15 meetings, and the road team is 12-6 in the past 18 head-to-head battles dating to 2006.
Hamels is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA in his last four starts, and he?s pitched at least seven innings in six straight outings. The southpaw is just 5-4 despite a 2.84 ERA in 10 starts at Citizens Bank this year. He?s also 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA in four career starts against the Redbirds, with the Phillies winning all four contests. In fact, Philadelphia is 18-4 in Hamels? last 22 starts against the N.L. Central.
Pineiro has gotten lit up in his last two trips to the hill, giving up 11 runs on 21 hits in 12 2/3 innings (7.82 ERA). The Cardinals are just 1-6 in Pineiro?s last seven starts, the lone victory being Wednesday?s come-from-behind 8-7 home win over the Mets. Finally, the right-hander is 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA on the road, and in two career starts against the Phillies ? both when he was with Seattle ? Pineiro has given up five earned runs on 12 hits in 13 innings (3.46 ERA).
The over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings overall, 11-2-2 in the last 15 clashes at Citizens Bank, 5-2-1 in the Cardinals? last eight overall and 4-0-1 in the Cardinals? last five against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (50-39) at Boston (52-40)
The streaking Twins continue their three-game series at Fenway Park when they send Nick Blackburn (7-4, 3.78) to the mound. Minnesota was on the wrong end of a 1-0 decision in Boston on Monday, ending a five-game winning streak. Still, the Twins have won 16 of their last 19, and Ron Gardenhire?s club is also on a 5-2 roll on the highway. On the downside, the Twins have lost seven straight road games when facing left-handed starters.
Jon Lester (7-3, 3.21) looks to duplicate his dominating effort in his most recent start against the Yankees when he takes the hill for the defending champions. The Red Sox returned from a disappointing 2-7 road trip and got a run in the bottom of the eighth to blank the Twins last night. Boston is on runs of 41-12 at home, 11-4 on Tuesdays, 58-26 on grass, 23-9 when Lester starts and 16-5 when Lester toes the rubber at Fenway.
These teams squared off in a four-game series at the Metrodome two months ago, and the Twins won three of the four contests, scoring seven runs or more in all three victories.
Blackburn was outstanding on Wednesday against the Tigers at home, scattering three hits and a walk over seven innings en route to a 7-0 win. The young right-hander has given up two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts, with the Twins going 7-2 during this run, including 4-0 in the last four. Blackburn is 2-2 with a 5.06 ERA in eight road starts this season. Also, he faced Boston back on May 11 and earned a victory despite giving up four runs on nine hits in six innings, with the Twins prevailing 9-8.
Lester schooled the Yankees on Thursday in New York, allowing five hits and two walks in a complete-game, 7-0 victory. Lester has allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, and Boston is 6-1 in the lefty?s last seven contests.
Lester is 4-1 with a 2.54 ERA in nine home games (including a no-hitter against the Royals), but in his lone career start against the Twins back on May 9, he got touched up for five runs (three earned) in 5 1/3 innings, losing 7-6.
The under is 16-7-2 in Lester?s last 25 starts overall, 7-2 in his last nine at home and 5-1-1 in his last seven on Tuesdays. Also, with Monday?s game falling well short of the posted total, the under is now 19-8-2 in the last 29 series meetings between these clubs, including 5-1 in the last six battles in Fenway.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER
Tampa Bay (55-33) at N.Y. Yankees (47-42)
Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.42) will try to get his Yankees closer to the A.L. East-leading Rays when these teams open a brief two-game series at Yankee Stadium. New York, which split a four-game home set against the Red Sox over the weekend before taking Monday off, trails Tampa Bay by 8? games and second-place Boston by 4?. Also, despite beating the Red Sox on Saturday and Sunday, the Yankees are just 7-9 in their last 16 contests (4-6 at home).
Scott Kazmir (7-3, 2.62) gets the call tonight for the Rays, who saw their seven-game winning streak snapped in Monday?s 7-4, 10-inning home loss to the Royals. Despite that result, Tampa Bay has still won 11 of its last 13 and 15 of its last 19. During this hot streak, the Rays are 5-1 on the road, evening their season mark on the highway at 19-19.
These teams have split 10 meetings already this season, with the Rays most recently taking three of four at home a month ago. During that four-game series, the Yankees scored a total of four runs. On the bright side, New York is still 49-20 in the last 69 meetings between these rivals at Yankee Stadium.
Since a sensational stretch in which he recorded seven straight quality starts, Kazmir hasn?t delivered a quality outing in any of his last four trips to the bump, failing to get out of the sixth inning in any of those contests. Still, Tampa Bay is 3-1 during Kazmir?s ?slump,? and they?re 9-2 in his last 11 outings (3-1 on the road), including Wednesday?s 7-6 home victory over the Red Sox.
Kazmir is 3-2 with a 3.52 ERA in five road starts, 3-3 with a 2.68 ERA in 10 career appearances (nine starts) against the Yankees and 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in four games (three starts) in the Bronx. One of his wins against the Yanks came at home on May 15, when he scattered three hits and three walks in six scoreless innings of a 5-2 victory
The under is on streaks of 7-2-1 for the Yankees overall, 14-5-1 for the Yankees against divisional foes, 8-3-1 at Yankee Stadium and 9-5 for Tampa Bay on the highway. Finally, the last five meetings between these clubs this year have stayed low, and the under is 4-1 in the last five battles in the Bronx.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
