THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Florida (34-29) at Philadelphia (39-26)
The Marlins look to put a dent into the Phillies? lead in the N.L. East when these division rivals start a three-game series at Dolphin Stadium. The scheduled pitching matchup for the series-opener features Florida?s Ricky Nolasco (5-4, 5.05) against the Phillies? Brett Myers (3-7, 5.13). Philadelphia, which was idle on Monday, arrives in South Beach with a four-game winning streak, this after sweeping a three-game series in Atlanta over the weekend. Charlie Manuel?s club is 12-2 in its last 14 overall (7-1 in the last eight), including four straight road wins, and 20-6 in its last 26 on Tuesdays. Florida has split the first four games on its current homestand, all against the Reds, including Monday?s 9-4 setback. The Marlins are 7-3 in their last 10 in front of the home crowd, but 4-9 in their last 13 overall and 2-5 in their last seven on Tuesdays. The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five against the Marlins, including taking two of three in the first series meeting this season 10 days ago. However, the Marlins have won six of the last eight clashes at Dolphin Stadium. Philadelphia is 1-7 in Myers? last seven trips to the bump and just 3-14 in his last 17 starts against the N.L. East, though one of those wins came against Florida on May 30. In that contest, Myers gave up three runs in eight innings, striking out a season-high 11 in a 12-3 victory. The right-hander followed that performance with an even stronger effort on Wednesday against the Reds, as he surrendered just one run and one hit in 7 1/3 innings, but he lost 2-0 at home. Myers is 0-5 with a 7.15 ERA on the road this year. Also, despite the win on May 30, Myers is just 6-7 with a 4.89 ERA in 25 appearances (19 starts) versus the Marlins, including 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA at Dolphin Stadium. Nolasco dominated the Phillies in a 7-3 road victory on May 31, giving up two runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings as he improved to 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his career against Philadelphia. However, he came back on Thursday at Atlanta and had his worst performance of the season, getting rocked for seven runs on 12 hits in 5 2/3 innings, losing 7-5. In three starts at home, Nolasco is 1-2 with a 5.32 ERA. The under is 3-1 in Myers? last four starts overall and 3-1 in his last four on the road. However, the over is 6-1 in Nolasco?s last seven starts overall (3-0 last three). The Phillies have stayed under the total in seven consecutive games, and the under is 5-1 in their past six on the highway. Conversely, for the Marlins, the over is on streaks of 22-6-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 7-0-1 against right-handed starters and 9-0-2 as an underdog. Also, the over is 37-15-2 in the last 54 battles in this rivalry, including 3-0 this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (38-26) at L.A. Angels (39-26)
After hammering the Angels in Monday?s series opener, the Rays look to remain perfect this season against the A.L. West leaders when they send James Shields (4-4, 3.64 ERA) to the mound opposite L.A.?s Jered Weaver (5-6, 4.79). Tampa Bay clobbered the Angels 13-4 on Monday night, improving to 4-0 against the Halos this season after losing 46 of the previous 62 meetings. The Rays are 21-10 in its last 31 overall (3-1 in their last four), 11-3 in their last 14 against the A.L. West and 23-10 in their last 33 against right-handed starters. However the Rays remain under .500 on the road this year (14-16), and going back to 2006, and they?re 46-101 in their past 147 road contests and 20-54 in their last 74 games on Tuesday. The Angels have now dropped two in a row since ripping off a seven-game winning streak. Los Angeles is still on positive streaks of 37-18 at home against teams with a winning record, 13-3 on Tuesdays and 4-2 against right-handed pitching. The Rays, who swept a three-game series from Los Angeles a month ago in Tampa Bay, have outscored the Angels 25-9 in four their four wins this season. However, they?re still just 5-24 in their last 29 games at Angel Stadium. Shields is coming off his shortest stint of the season, as he got ejected after intentionally beaning Boston?s Coco Crisp with no outs in the second inning on Thursday at Fenway Park. He gave up four runs on three hits in his single inning of work in taking the loss, and he?s now gone five straight starts since his last victory, a 2-0 win over the Angels in Los Angeles. On the bright side, the Rays are 13-6 in Shields? last 19 starts overall, 7-1 in his last eight against the A.L. West and 4-1 in his last four on Tuesdays.
Shields has struggled on the highway all season, going 1-3 with a 7.06 ERA in six starts, as opposed to 3-1 with a 1.72 ERA in seven home outings, and Tampa is 8-20 in his last 28 outings on the highway. The right-hander also has a serious home-road split in his career against Los Angeles, going 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA in four home starts (all Rays wins) and 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in one start at Angel Stadium. Weaver is 3-1 in his last four starts, but he?s given up 10 runs on 20 hits in his last two starts spanning 10 innings. On Wednesday at Seattle, he surrendered four runs on 10 hits in six innings, winning 5-4. At home this season, Weaver is 2-3 with a 3.47 ERA in six outings, and he?s 2-6 with a 5.46 ERA in 10 starts at night. Finally, in his lone career start against the Rays back in 2006, he surrendered two runs on four hits in six innings, winning 6-2 in Tampa Bay.
The under is 4-2 in Shields? last six starts, but the over is 3-1 in his last four on the road. Meanwhile, the over is 3-1 in Weaver?s last four overall, but the under is 4-2 in his six home outings in 2008. With last night?s game flying over the total, the over is now 11-3 in the last 14 meetings in Southern California. However, the under is 9-3 in the Rays? last 12 overall and 7-2 in their past nine versus teams with a winning record. Also, for the Angels, the under runs include 20-8-1 overall, 19-9 against right-handed starters, 8-3 at home against righties and 7-1 at home against teams with a losing road record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA FINALS
(1) Boston (14-8, 10-12 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (12-5, 10-6-1 ATS)
After coming up empty in the first two games of the NBA Finals in Boston, the Lakers find themselves in a must-win situation when they return home to Staples Center for Game 3. Los Angeles dug itself a 22-point hole after three quarters Sunday before mounting a furious fourth-quarter rally, only to fall short 108-102 as a 1?-point road favorite. Boston, which shot 53 percent from the field in the victory, got 28 points from a gimpy Paul Pierce, while the team?s other two stars, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen, each contributed 17 in leading the Celtics to their fourth straight win (3-1 ATS). Also, reserve Leon Powe chipped in 21 points in 14? minutes for Boston. Kobe Bryant scored a game-high 30 points in Game 2, while Pau Gasol (17 points, 10 rebounds) and Vlad Radmanovic (13 points, 10 boards) contributed double-doubles for the Lakers, who shot 49.4 percent from the field, including 47.6 percent from the three-point line (10-for-21). However, Los Angeles was on the wrong end of a huge free-throw disparity, shooting just 10 foul shots (and making all 10) to Boston?s 38 attempts. The Celtics are now 4-0 SU and ATS against the Lakers this season, including a 110-91 rout at Staples Center as a three-point road underdog on Dec. 30 in the only previous meeting this season in Hollywood. Prior to covering the spread in the last four battles, Boston had gone 1-7 ATS against Los Angeles. Finally, the host is on a 4-1 ATS roll in this rivalry. The Lakers have lost consecutive games for just the second time in this postseason. They haven?t had a three-game losing skid since falling to the Spurs, Mavericks and Cavaliers in a four-day span in late January ? a stretch of 57 contests. Also, Los Angeles has won 14 consecutive home games, going 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in the postseason at Staples Center. Going back to the regular season, the Lakers have cashed in eight of their last 10 at home. Boston is on a 7-2 run, but despite victories at Detroit in Games 3 and 6 of the Eastern Conference finals, Doc Rivers? squad is just 2-7 SU and ATS on the highway in the playoffs, with the winner covering the spread in each contest. The Lakers have followed up an 8-1-1 ATS run by going just 4-4 ATS in their last eight. Meanwhile, the Celtics have rebounded from a 2-8 ATS slump with three straight spread-covers ? their first three-game ATS winning streak of the playoffs.
The Lakers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven NBA Finals games and 0-5 ATS in their last five versus the Eastern Conference. After that, however, the recent pointspread trends are nothing but positive for L.A., including 36-18-2 overall, 6-2 after a non-cover, 8-2-1 when playing on one day of rest, 11-3 on Tuesdays and 9-4 as a favorite. The Celtics are on ATS streaks of 7-1 against the Western Conference (4-0 last four), 4-0 against the Pacific Division, 22-9 as an underdog, 42-18 as a road ?dog, 7-1 as a ?dog of five to 10? points, 11-5 on Tuesdays and 23-11 following a SU win. On the downside, Doc Rivers? club is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games played on one day of rest and 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a spread-cover. After Game 1 barely stayed under the total, Game 2 flew way over the 191?-point posted price. The total has alternated in each of the last five meetings between these teams, though the over is 6-2 in the past eight clashes at Staples Center. Meanwhile, the Lakers had a six-game ?under? streak snapped on Sunday, but the under is still 5-2 in their last seven at home (3-0 last three) and 4-0 in their last four on one day of rest. For Boston, the under is on streaks of 4-2 overall, 5-0 on the road, 5-1 as an underdog and 4-1 on Tuesday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
