- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
ATS: 138-95-7 (+51.9)
OU: 72-62-2 (+2.5)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)
Pacers
Peaking at the right time is crucial in this league. This is something that the best coaches in the league recognize, and try to implement. I think Vogel has a chance to be among the elite coaches in years to come. Tonight is a matchup of two teams headed in different directions. The Warriors have lost their early season swagger, while the Pacers are picking up steam and seem to get better every game. They started hot this season, but since the new year, the Warriors are 0-9 SU (-15.4) and 1-8 ATS as a road dog against teams with a winning record, giving up 112.3 ppg. The Pacers give up only 89.2 ppg on the year, and only 87.6 as a home favorite while allowing only 39.5% from the field. The Warriors have averaged under this number as a road dog this year, and I don?t see them getting hot tonight against the stingy defense of the Pacers.
A study was done by two Harvard researchers to determine what players are the best and worst interior defenders in the league. They studied 76,000 shots taken by NBA teams. Over a third of these shots occurred within 5 feet of the basket. They determined that the two players in the league that are the best at reducing interior efficiency of opposing players are Roy Hibbert and Larry Sanders. The NBA averages 49.7% when a qualifying interior defender is within 5 feet of them, and this number drops to 38% when either of these two players are within that distance. The two worst interior defenders? Luis Scola and David Lee. Opponents average 63% against these defenders within 5 feet of the basket (Goldsberry and Weiss, 2013). Not surprisingly, the Pacers have the best field goal defense in the league in the paint, and the Warriors are in the bottom ten. The Pacers this season are 18-2 SU (+12.3 ppg) and 12-6-2 ATS as a home favorite when they outscore their opponents in the paint. The Warriors on the road as a dog are 3-10 SU (-8.8 ppg) and 4-8-1 ATS when they are outscored in the paint this season. The Warriors have been outscored in the paint in 65% of their games on the road this season. The Pacers are first in the league at guarding the three, and they guard the paint very well. With this combination, they force opponents into taking bad shots (they are eighth in the league at forcing opponents into 16-23 foot jumpers, which are statistically the worst shots you can take).
The Warriors have lost ten of their last eleven when playing in Indiana, giving up an average of 114.2 points. The Pacers are 8-1 SU (+13.3 ppg) and 8-1 ATS this season at home against teams with a winning record. I don?t expect a big contribution from Granger tonight, but it is his first home game of the season, and I think the crowd will be hyped. Only a three game difference separates the second seed from the sixth team in the East, and the Pacers need to work hard to maintain their spot, as they are only a half game ahead of the Knicks.
Tonight, they should be pace themselves to a win.
Pacers -8 x2
Timberwolves +1.5
Hornets -2.5
Good luck...
OU: 72-62-2 (+2.5)
ML dogs: 5-9 (+2.6)
Pacers
Peaking at the right time is crucial in this league. This is something that the best coaches in the league recognize, and try to implement. I think Vogel has a chance to be among the elite coaches in years to come. Tonight is a matchup of two teams headed in different directions. The Warriors have lost their early season swagger, while the Pacers are picking up steam and seem to get better every game. They started hot this season, but since the new year, the Warriors are 0-9 SU (-15.4) and 1-8 ATS as a road dog against teams with a winning record, giving up 112.3 ppg. The Pacers give up only 89.2 ppg on the year, and only 87.6 as a home favorite while allowing only 39.5% from the field. The Warriors have averaged under this number as a road dog this year, and I don?t see them getting hot tonight against the stingy defense of the Pacers.
A study was done by two Harvard researchers to determine what players are the best and worst interior defenders in the league. They studied 76,000 shots taken by NBA teams. Over a third of these shots occurred within 5 feet of the basket. They determined that the two players in the league that are the best at reducing interior efficiency of opposing players are Roy Hibbert and Larry Sanders. The NBA averages 49.7% when a qualifying interior defender is within 5 feet of them, and this number drops to 38% when either of these two players are within that distance. The two worst interior defenders? Luis Scola and David Lee. Opponents average 63% against these defenders within 5 feet of the basket (Goldsberry and Weiss, 2013). Not surprisingly, the Pacers have the best field goal defense in the league in the paint, and the Warriors are in the bottom ten. The Pacers this season are 18-2 SU (+12.3 ppg) and 12-6-2 ATS as a home favorite when they outscore their opponents in the paint. The Warriors on the road as a dog are 3-10 SU (-8.8 ppg) and 4-8-1 ATS when they are outscored in the paint this season. The Warriors have been outscored in the paint in 65% of their games on the road this season. The Pacers are first in the league at guarding the three, and they guard the paint very well. With this combination, they force opponents into taking bad shots (they are eighth in the league at forcing opponents into 16-23 foot jumpers, which are statistically the worst shots you can take).
The Warriors have lost ten of their last eleven when playing in Indiana, giving up an average of 114.2 points. The Pacers are 8-1 SU (+13.3 ppg) and 8-1 ATS this season at home against teams with a winning record. I don?t expect a big contribution from Granger tonight, but it is his first home game of the season, and I think the crowd will be hyped. Only a three game difference separates the second seed from the sixth team in the East, and the Pacers need to work hard to maintain their spot, as they are only a half game ahead of the Knicks.
Tonight, they should be pace themselves to a win.
Pacers -8 x2
Timberwolves +1.5
Hornets -2.5
Good luck...
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