My egregious error in posting yesterday will not recur. Lots of incredibly good-looking games but a need for chalk cutting with run line plays in a few of them. More "public" ramblings no small thanks to AOL.
Mesa's absence will not hurt the PHILLIES because he probably wasn't going to be available today anyway. Now, they just have to keep the ball out of the hands of a couple doofus relievers and Duckworth is just the guy to do it. My tendency to go with young righties is legendary (in my own mind) and Rolen's return tips the scales. Rusch is slipping and Duckworth has allowed only one HR in his L26 IPs.
Vazquez-Millwood is a mismatch too good to pass up. Bravos have lost 9 of L12 in Turner (they remain sub-.500 at home) and Javier's L5 EXPO starts have yielded an ERA of 0.67 in 40 IPS. He also would like to wreak a little revenge on Bravos who beat him badly last time. Milly? No slouch but not Vazquez's equal.
Fade Tapani! Fade Dempster! But the MARLINS will still pull this one out as it goes way OVER 10 runs no matter who the ump is or which way the wind blows.
REDS have won 5 of L7 and are producing runs. ``I wouldn't want to be the next team to face us,'' Griffey said. Confidence and a loose attitude will get DAVIS (5-1 L7 starts, ERA 2.85) the win. The interesting angle here is how few runs the Stros score behind Miller:
L6 6 starts they have gotten him 13 runs and he has allowed 9 ERs. REDS win and the UNDER comes in, too. In the L10 IPs, Cincy's pen has allowed zero ERs.
The Bucs have lost 8 straight roadies and even the BREWERS can beat them. McKnight suffers a letdown after his win over Unit.
Livan beats the Big Unit. This is all predicated on the travel issues surrounding this game: GIANTS day game in NYC got them to Phoenix tonight and the DBacks night game in Philly will leave them tired. Livan shuts down their bats.
Two Big Dogs in a Row. Brownie is a favorite of mine but he is an auto-go-against off the DL and actually was 3-3, 5.31 ERA in his L8 starts before going on the DL. Severely limited pitch count and LA's terrible pen make this a solid ROCKS win and OVER. Chacon beat LA earlier this year.
WOOF and UNDER. RED SOX CONE will beat Burba and both teams are short some power. UNDER. Trend mentioned in another thread validates this under. Cone: 17/18 starts he has given up 3 runs or fewer and Sox have won 14/15 starts. Burba's 6.49 ERA has been earned nicely lately with losses in 6 of L7 starts. He's starting only cuz Nagy's on DL.
Tigers can't hold leads, have lost 42-18 L6 games and start Home Run Jose Lima who almost pitched a full inning last week. 3 HRs, 6 runs, 6 hits vs M's and gone before the scoreboard struck "one." Biddle . . . hmmmm . . . OK, WHITE SOX beat the Tigers if Rocky can last five.
Mulder wins by five so the RL cuts the chalk. The Orioles have quit and Ponson is happy that the PA announcer pronounces his name correctly. Sidney has 3 bad games in a row and an ERA of almost 8 in his L18 IPs. OAKLAND -1' RUNS.
A second RL game in a row thinking that Moose will stand tall and give the YANKS a win over the Jays. Wait! Toronto is too hot. PASS.
OK then, SEATTLE -1' to replace that play. Pineiro, strong young RHP (theme song) and the M's have won ALL of his 7 starts. Sea is 13-5 in DRays home.
ANGELS beat George--a rookie lefty(!)--easily. Ortiz is winning and Sweeney's return won't be enough for K.C.
PICKS:
Phillies-120
Expos +130
Fish +140
Fish/Cubs over 8'
Reds +190
Reds under 10
Brewers -125
Giants +200
Rocks +180
Rocks/Doggears over 7'
Red Sox+110
Sox/Tribe under 10'
Oakland -1' runs -125
Seattle -1' runs -135
Angels -145
A few too many plays and feedback, as always, is very welcome. I am kinda' proud of my mix of dogs and favs.
Again, my plays meet MadJack's "I wonder how the hell the public would do" criteria and the "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while." theory.
GL
J
Typos. Edited at 2232 hrs PDT for damn typos.
[This message has been edited by jng (edited 08-28-2001).]
Mesa's absence will not hurt the PHILLIES because he probably wasn't going to be available today anyway. Now, they just have to keep the ball out of the hands of a couple doofus relievers and Duckworth is just the guy to do it. My tendency to go with young righties is legendary (in my own mind) and Rolen's return tips the scales. Rusch is slipping and Duckworth has allowed only one HR in his L26 IPs.
Vazquez-Millwood is a mismatch too good to pass up. Bravos have lost 9 of L12 in Turner (they remain sub-.500 at home) and Javier's L5 EXPO starts have yielded an ERA of 0.67 in 40 IPS. He also would like to wreak a little revenge on Bravos who beat him badly last time. Milly? No slouch but not Vazquez's equal.
Fade Tapani! Fade Dempster! But the MARLINS will still pull this one out as it goes way OVER 10 runs no matter who the ump is or which way the wind blows.
REDS have won 5 of L7 and are producing runs. ``I wouldn't want to be the next team to face us,'' Griffey said. Confidence and a loose attitude will get DAVIS (5-1 L7 starts, ERA 2.85) the win. The interesting angle here is how few runs the Stros score behind Miller:
L6 6 starts they have gotten him 13 runs and he has allowed 9 ERs. REDS win and the UNDER comes in, too. In the L10 IPs, Cincy's pen has allowed zero ERs.
The Bucs have lost 8 straight roadies and even the BREWERS can beat them. McKnight suffers a letdown after his win over Unit.
Livan beats the Big Unit. This is all predicated on the travel issues surrounding this game: GIANTS day game in NYC got them to Phoenix tonight and the DBacks night game in Philly will leave them tired. Livan shuts down their bats.
Two Big Dogs in a Row. Brownie is a favorite of mine but he is an auto-go-against off the DL and actually was 3-3, 5.31 ERA in his L8 starts before going on the DL. Severely limited pitch count and LA's terrible pen make this a solid ROCKS win and OVER. Chacon beat LA earlier this year.
WOOF and UNDER. RED SOX CONE will beat Burba and both teams are short some power. UNDER. Trend mentioned in another thread validates this under. Cone: 17/18 starts he has given up 3 runs or fewer and Sox have won 14/15 starts. Burba's 6.49 ERA has been earned nicely lately with losses in 6 of L7 starts. He's starting only cuz Nagy's on DL.
Tigers can't hold leads, have lost 42-18 L6 games and start Home Run Jose Lima who almost pitched a full inning last week. 3 HRs, 6 runs, 6 hits vs M's and gone before the scoreboard struck "one." Biddle . . . hmmmm . . . OK, WHITE SOX beat the Tigers if Rocky can last five.
Mulder wins by five so the RL cuts the chalk. The Orioles have quit and Ponson is happy that the PA announcer pronounces his name correctly. Sidney has 3 bad games in a row and an ERA of almost 8 in his L18 IPs. OAKLAND -1' RUNS.
A second RL game in a row thinking that Moose will stand tall and give the YANKS a win over the Jays. Wait! Toronto is too hot. PASS.
OK then, SEATTLE -1' to replace that play. Pineiro, strong young RHP (theme song) and the M's have won ALL of his 7 starts. Sea is 13-5 in DRays home.
ANGELS beat George--a rookie lefty(!)--easily. Ortiz is winning and Sweeney's return won't be enough for K.C.
PICKS:
Phillies-120
Expos +130
Fish +140
Fish/Cubs over 8'
Reds +190
Reds under 10
Brewers -125
Giants +200
Rocks +180
Rocks/Doggears over 7'
Red Sox+110
Sox/Tribe under 10'
Oakland -1' runs -125
Seattle -1' runs -135
Angels -145
A few too many plays and feedback, as always, is very welcome. I am kinda' proud of my mix of dogs and favs.
Again, my plays meet MadJack's "I wonder how the hell the public would do" criteria and the "Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in a while." theory.
GL
J
Typos. Edited at 2232 hrs PDT for damn typos.
[This message has been edited by jng (edited 08-28-2001).]
