Tuesday's Bowl

[mikewho]

10*
under 49.5 ark st/so.miss

also leaning towards ark st since the line is dropping
will post that play soon.

 

[Ronnie]

On it Mike, good luck to you on this bowl season

 

[mikewho]

FOR THOSE WHO LIKES TO USE SYSTEMS AND TRENDS I GOT SOME INFO HERE THAT YOU MIGHT LIKE.


Pick the winner of the bowl game
In the last 350 bowl games the winner of the game has covered the spread 86% of the time....think about that. So the main object is too pick the winner

Dogs in bowl games that are +7 or higher win 1 in 4 games
Dogs at +3.5 to +6.5 win 1 in 3 games
Dogs from +1 to +3 win 2 out of 5 games
Dogs cover the spread 54% in december games BUT in January favs cover 65% of the time (the big games)

Teams that outrush their opponents cover the pointspread in slightly more than 60% of the time (this is all regular season games)
Look for teams that have a higher rush per carry in a game.
Here is the big stat on that for bowl games:
In the last 350 bowl games the team that ends the game with the most rushing yards covers the spread for the game 79% of the time

Bet against teams that really don't want to be in the bowl game. This is usually a team that was overlooked for a BCS bowl and instead gets invited to a lessor game. They don't always play up to their ability. Yet the public will hammer the strong team.
An example of this was just last season as California was ranked 5th after going undefeated most of the year. They were not given a BCS bowl and of course were very disappointed and not interested in playing in a small bowl game. The public bet Cal heavy and you can guess what happened. Texas Tech won the game outright

Favs in a bowl game who have lost 2 or more games in a row to end the season are just 5-14 ATS in bowl games
Fresno state is the only fav this year who lost their last 3 games of the year

In the early bowl games see what conferences play well as this may indicate stronger divisions and teams from that conference may also do well in the big bowl games later on

Teams that have players with bowl experience is huge. If they have been their before they know better how to handle the media and what it takes to win the game.

There are many other factors but those are a few I think help in picking winners

 

[mikewho]

HERE IS ANOTHER ONE.

Teams that played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher are worth betting in their bowl game. It is believed those that played a tougher schedule are more prepared to play in the big game. Plus their higher ranking makes them a better overall team.


TEAM line RANK/SOS

Example (from 2003-4)
Mia-OH -13 (5/75) Lville (43/81)
Just so you understand what the numbers mean: In the above game Miami Ohio was -13 for their bowl game. They were ranked 5th and played the 75th toughest schedule in the regular season. Lville was ranked 43rd and played the 81st toughest schedule. So this would qualify as a play on Miami Ohio because they played a tougher schedule and were ranked higher. the final score was 49-28 Miami so they did cover


Bowl games where system is met. You may have a different ranking but this is close. I took it from collegefootball.com

Teams listed 1st are the play

r = ranked, sos =strength of schedule

S Miss -17 (r 52,sos 95) vs Ark st (r 79,sos 118)
so in this game S Miss would be the play as they are ranked higher and played a tougher schedule

California -6 (r 30,sos 59) vs Brigham Young (r 54, sos 73)
Kansas -3 (r 53, sos 31) vs Houston (r 61, sos 103)
Nevada -2 (r 32, sos 93) vs Central Florida (r 45, sos 94) close but Nev is play
Akron +6 (r 55, sos 91) vs Memphis (r 60, sos 99)
Michigan -12.5 (r 22, sos 6) vs Nebraska (r 39, sos 56)
Georgia Tech -8.5 (r 31, sos 2) vs Utah (r 48, sos 64)
S Carolina -4 (r 38, sos 32) vs Missouri (r 59, sos 62)
Miami Fla (no line) (r 9, sos 24) vs LSU (r 13, sos 46)
NC State -6.5 (r 50, sos 44) vs S Florida (r 51, sos 69)
TCU -3.5 (r 6, sos 58) vs Iowa st (r 34, sos 77)
Florida -3 (r 20, sos 17) vs Iowa (r 26, sos 42)
Virginia Tech -8 (r 5, sos 27) vs Louisville (r 7, sos 78)
Ohio st -4.5 (r 4, sos 5) vs Notre Dame (r 15, sos 10)
Penn State -7.5 (r 3, sos 14) vs Florida State (r 28, sos 33)
USC -6.5 (r 1, sos 15) vs Texas (r 2, sos 19)

28 bowl games and 16 fit the system. Just for interest sake the team that played the toughest schedule this year was N Carolina.

Also of note is you might find a few of the teams ranked different. I saw Texas #1 at some places and if you believe that it would then not be a play. I think most of these rankings are right.

I included the line but it will change somewhat. I think you have to factor other things as well. One thing I like are teams that finished the season hot and on a winning streak. The one factor I don't like is teams have to wait so long to play and they are not always "game sharp". Some coaches have a better way to prepare

Do what you want with this system. Play it, fade it or ignore it!

 

[mikewho]

addding
5*
So. miss-8 First half

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck!

Ratslla