Tulsa
- Thread starter superbook
- Start date
Tulsa up 37-30, then SJSU hit a couple of 3's right before the half to take the lead 39-38
Tulsa -6 second half BIG
SJSU shooting 55% in the first half, they'll cool off in the second; once they get down they have a tendency to give up.
gl
Tulsa -6 second half BIG
SJSU shooting 55% in the first half, they'll cool off in the second; once they get down they have a tendency to give up.
gl
Looking for input here
Looking for input here
IS it me or do a lot of bad beats in NCAA hoops come from playing too many road fav's it seems that lots of times the road favs don't hold the cover just the outright win, I would be curious to see a percentage of road favs that cover compared to the ones that simply win outright. Any one with this info or a site that provides a database of this would be appreciated. Of course I could research it myself but no sense reinventing the wheel IF readily available.
Looking for input here
IS it me or do a lot of bad beats in NCAA hoops come from playing too many road fav's it seems that lots of times the road favs don't hold the cover just the outright win, I would be curious to see a percentage of road favs that cover compared to the ones that simply win outright. Any one with this info or a site that provides a database of this would be appreciated. Of course I could research it myself but no sense reinventing the wheel IF readily available.
What a tough loss that was with that last bucket... I felt the pain along with most of this bunch. We'll get it back tomorrow!
This one would have bit me in arse bigtime. I never would have thunked it. Saddle back up pardner.
Geno-
ATS games to date:
Favorites.....449-471-22.....48.8%
Road Fav.....118-141-5.......45.56%
Home Fav....331-330-17.....50.08%
There's no easy answer in this game.:shrug:
ATS games to date:
Favorites.....449-471-22.....48.8%
Road Fav.....118-141-5.......45.56%
Home Fav....331-330-17.....50.08%
There's no easy answer in this game.:shrug:
Last edited:
Geno_
Straight up to date:
Favorites.....677-265-0.....71.87%
Road Fav....157-107-0......59.47%
Home Fav....520-158-0.....76.7%
.
Straight up to date:
Favorites.....677-265-0.....71.87%
Road Fav....157-107-0......59.47%
Home Fav....520-158-0.....76.7%
.
THANK YOU !
THANK YOU !
CISCO thanks for the figures, yes I am learning that there is no easy answer. However your figures reveal what I had thought about laying points on the road in college baskets, it is not an overall winning situation.
IF, we look inside the group of home underdogs for specific situations and opportunities that may provide some profit for the flat bettor?
reversing that group of road favs gives us a 54.44% win rate right off of the bat. Then my next question is are those numbers against the closing line which I suspect they are then by very prudent line shopping one could add maybe 1.5 -2.5 % win rate ??? bringing us close to 56-57%
Discipline within the home underdog group might add 1-2 more % and then I would guess long-term the player would hit the wall.
The only reason I hit on this situation is that it seems that a lot of guys come back in here after losing a close one with a road favorite.
Superbook sorry to jump in your thread and in Hindsight I guess the proper thing to do would have been to open up my own thread for this dialog.
Raz not trying to show you up, there have been qutie a few losing road favs that lead up to this before I spoke up.
Again thanks to all for the help.
Best of luck today and down the road !
THANK YOU !
CISCO thanks for the figures, yes I am learning that there is no easy answer. However your figures reveal what I had thought about laying points on the road in college baskets, it is not an overall winning situation.
IF, we look inside the group of home underdogs for specific situations and opportunities that may provide some profit for the flat bettor?
reversing that group of road favs gives us a 54.44% win rate right off of the bat. Then my next question is are those numbers against the closing line which I suspect they are then by very prudent line shopping one could add maybe 1.5 -2.5 % win rate ??? bringing us close to 56-57%
Discipline within the home underdog group might add 1-2 more % and then I would guess long-term the player would hit the wall.
The only reason I hit on this situation is that it seems that a lot of guys come back in here after losing a close one with a road favorite.
Superbook sorry to jump in your thread and in Hindsight I guess the proper thing to do would have been to open up my own thread for this dialog.
Raz not trying to show you up, there have been qutie a few losing road favs that lead up to this before I spoke up.
Again thanks to all for the help.
Best of luck today and down the road !
So Home dogs are 54.44% ATS, the best ATS record of the bunch.
And there is your answer: Home dogs are the way to go............
And there is your answer: Home dogs are the way to go............
Good numbers guys thanks.
FWIW I've had good luck this year buying a point or a half on the Road Favs.
I bought the hook on Tulsa and got the push on the game but a big win on the second half at -6.
I don't always post my point buys here because when I do a couple of guys always jump on me and tell me it's stupid (eg see my thread on the Ivy on Friday night)
I'd be interested in seeing what percentage of games this year lost by a half or a full point, yesterday alone I had two pushes out of eight plays that would have been losses if I hadn't bought a half point.
- Jon
FWIW I've had good luck this year buying a point or a half on the Road Favs.
I bought the hook on Tulsa and got the push on the game but a big win on the second half at -6.
I don't always post my point buys here because when I do a couple of guys always jump on me and tell me it's stupid (eg see my thread on the Ivy on Friday night)
I'd be interested in seeing what percentage of games this year lost by a half or a full point, yesterday alone I had two pushes out of eight plays that would have been losses if I hadn't bought a half point.
- Jon
