Turdsday Night - CIN at PHI write-ups

[Senor Capper]

The Cincinnati Bengals have never made the playoffs in consecutive seasons under head coach Marvin Lewis. If they plan on changing that, they need to win a pair of games in Pennsylvania, starting with Thursday's favorable matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network).

At 7-6, the Bengals are in a fight with the AFC North rival Steelers -- whom they play in Pittsburgh in Week 16 -- to take the AFC's second-wild card spot for a second straight year. Knowing the Eagles (4-9) just ended an eight-game losing streak by dashing Tampa Bay's playoff hopes last week, the Bengals know they will need to turn in a strong all-around effort to avoid the road upset this week.

The Bengals led for most of their Week 14 home game against the Dallas Cowboys, but dropped passes, penalties and other mistakes contributed to losing a 20-19 heartbreaker on Dan Bailey's last-second field goal. There's one thing they should be able to count on against the Eagles in Week 15 -- their defense.

Cincinnati leads the NFL with 42 sacks, and will be eager to cool off Eagles rookie quarterback Nick Foles. Foles had plenty of time to pick apart the Buccaneers, and responded with his best passing game (32-for-51, 381 yards, two TDs). But the Bengals can bring much better pressure, inside and outside.

Tackle Geno Atkins leads the way with 10 1/2 sacks, and ends Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson have also been very effective off the edge. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is fortunate to have a strong front four and backs it up with a good blitz package that puts his players in the most favorable matchups with would-be blockers. The Eagles' offensive line has been riddled with injuries, and will lose the battle in the trenches.


Zimmer will try to confuse Foles with varied looks in coverage as well. The Bengals also boast a good run defense (No. 11) that will slow down rookie running back Bryce Brown on early downs and put Foles in uncomfortable down-and-distance situations.

The Bengals' offense will get a lot of help from the other side of the ball, and must execute better to take advantage. Andy Dalton will see on film that the Eagles have struggled to pressure quarterbacks into mistakes all season long. He should also notice they haven't been able to handle speedy, explosive wide receivers all season. That's great news for A.J. Green, who should follow Larry Fitzgerald, Victor Cruz, Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Vincent Jackson in blowing through Philadelphia's secondary for some big plays.

Green, uncharacteristically, dropped a potential TD pass from Dalton against the Cowboys. After going nine consecutive games with a score, he has been kept out of the end zone in the past three. Expect that to change against the Eagles. With Green stretching the field, fellow wideout Andrew Hawkins and tight end Jermaine Gresham will find some good room on underneath routes from Dalton.

The Bengals should also expect additional strong running from BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has racked up 437 rushing yards (5.4 per-carry average) over the past four weeks.

The Bengals have everything going for them on paper. They have shown just how good they can be, and before losing to the Cowboys, Cincinnati soundly beat the Redskins and Giants from the NFC East. If they can clean up a few things against the Eagles, it should be enough to finish 3-1 on the season against that tough division.

The pick: Bengals 27, Eagles 20.

 

[Senor Capper]

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Point Spread -

Cincinnati Bengals (7-6 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS)
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pa.
TV: NFL Network/DirecTV 212


Point Spread: Cin -3/PHI +3
Over/Under Total: 46

The Cincinnati Bengals are letting an AFC playoff spot slip right through their fingers, but if they want to stay in position for a chance at the second season they'll need to find a way to win on the road this week when they travel to Lincoln Financial Field to take on the Philadelphia Eagles in the season finale of Thursday Night Football on the NFL Network.

The Bengals were sitting in a good position for an AFC wild card spot and on the verge of a tough victory over the emotional Dallas Cowboys at home last Sunday, only to watch Tony Romo and the Cowboys put together a 13-play, 50-yard drive in the final minutes to set up a game-winning 40-yard field goal by Dan Bailey as time expired and hand the Bengals a 20-19 loss. The loss dropped Cincinnati into a tie for the final AFC spot, and with three weeks to play and games remaining against AFC North rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Bengals face almost a must-win situation in Philly this week in order to stay ahead of the chase pack.

Philadelphia finished on the opposite end of the last-second win or lose spectrum last week in Tampa, beating the Buccaneers, 23-21, when rookie QB Nick Foles hit Jeremy Maclin with a 1-yard score as time expired. The win snapped the Eagles eight-game losing streak and took some of the heat off of head coach Andy Reid for a week, at least until Thursday when the Bengals come calling with their backs starting to approach the wall.

With the Bengals likely to be playing with a sense of urgency, and Philly already in full-blown rebuilding mode, oddsmakers set the opening point spread for the TNF finale with Cincinnati as 3-point favorites on the road at the Linc. With the public already fading the Eagles no matter who or where they play, some sportsbooks have adjusted the number up to Cincy minus -3.5, but that's about as far as it's gone after the first few days of being up on the board.

The over/under total opened at 46 and it has held firm at a majority of sportsbooks both on the Web and in and around Las Vegas, but there are a few books starting to drop the game down the hook to 45.5 as the early money has been coming in on the under.

The Eagles have gone young on offense for a few weeks now, with Foles and fellow rookie Bryce Brown taking over the quarterback and running back roles for the rest of the year while Reid and Eagles management try and find new homes for Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy. Foles had his best game yet last week in Tampa, throwing for a rookie record 381 yards and two scores, but Brown was held in check for the first time since his ascension to the starting role.

Issues and injuries along the Eagles offensive line have seemed to taper off lately, but now Philly might have to play without TE Brent Celek (concussion) against a Bengals defense that is ranked 7th overall (328 ypg) and leads the NFL with 42 sacks. I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but on paper it doesn't look like a matchup Foles and Reid can expect to win consistently, especially if he calls upwards to 50 passes.

Cincinnati's offense under second-year QB Andy Dalton is pretty much middle of the pack, ranked 15th overall (355 ypg) and 11th in scoring with an average of 24.7 points per game. The Bengals have had a surge in the run game with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who had a three-game 100-yard plus streak snapped last week, but you have to imagine the Bengals will like their chances with young stud A.J. Green going up against an Eagles secondary that has looked lost and been gutted in recent weeks and is also missing starting safety Kurt Coleman.

The last time these two played back in 2008 was the now famous game that ended with a 13-13 tie, when former Eagles QB Donovan McNabb told reporters afterwards he didn't know games could end in ties. Historically the AFC-NFC series between the Bengals and Eagles is dead even on the field (3-3-1 SU), but Philly is 3-2 SU in the games played in Philadelphia.

More importantly, the Bengals have OWNED the series at the betting window, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the series going all the way back to the 1988 game (no line on the 1994 meeting? ? hence only 6-0 ATS). The last time these two met in Philly (in 2005) the Bengals won 38-10 and covered as (ironically) 3.5-point favorites at the Linc.

Cincy is 4-1 ATS on the road the last five trips, but Philly does seem to play well on Thursdays, going 4-1 ATS in their last five mid-week games. The Eagles are however just 7-19-1 in their last 27 home games, so bet the Eagles as home dogs if you dare.

The Eagles appear to be back on track after pulling off a huge road win at TB. Nick Foles will continue to mature and the Eagles will win this game straight up which will appear to be an upset to many, and a payday for sharp handicappers.

 

[Senor Capper]

Thursday Night Football: Bengals at Eagles

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (+4, 45.5)

The Cincinnati Bengals let a golden opportunity slip through their fingers against one NFC East team this past weekend. The Bengals would like to prevent the same from happening again on Thursday when they visit the struggling Philadelphia Eagles. Cincinnati's bid to record its fifth straight victory and eighth overall was thwarted by Dallas on the final play. As a result, the Bengals remained two games shy of AFC North-leading Baltimore and a tiebreaker behind Pittsburgh for the final playoff berth in the conference.

Postseason discussion has long been tabled in Philadelphia, which snapped an eight-game losing skid with a 23-21 triumph over Tampa Bay this past weekend. Nick Foles gave the Eagles some confidence for the future by throwing for a rookie franchise-best 381 yards. The third-round pick also engineered the game-winning drive, which was capped by his 1-yard touchdown pass to Jeremy Maclin.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Cincinnati opened as a field-goal favorite in Philadelphia and has since been bet up as high as -4.5. The total opened at 46 and has dropped to 45.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the mid 30s. Winds will blow NW at 2 mph.

ABOUT THE BENGALS (7-6, 6-6-1 ATS): Cincinnati stud WR A.J. Green had a pair of inexplicable drops en route to being held out of the end zone for the third time in as many games on Sunday. Prior to this drought, Green had scored in nine straight contests. The Bengals can't afford to dwell on Sunday's loss or look beyond the Eagles, although a visit to Pittsburgh (Dec. 23) and a home game versus Baltimore (Dec. 30) could go a long way in deciding if they make the playoffs.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (4-9, 3-9-1 ATS): Maclin is clearly impressed with Foles, who has just four starts under his belt. "You guys are seeing Nick Foles grow into a phenomenal quarterback right in front of your eyes," Maclin said. "I think the sky is the limit for him." Foles hasn't thrown an interception in the last 14 quarters, although the aggressive Bengals defense could pressure him into mistakes. Cincinnati leads the league with 42 sacks.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Bengals are 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Eagles are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Although Bengals RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis failed to notch his fourth consecutive 100-yard game, he sits just 26 shy of his second straight 1,000-yard season.

2. Philadelphia TE Clay Harbor, who reeled in the first of two touchdown passes by Foles, will likely start on Thursday in place of the concussed Brent Celek.

3. The teams played to a 13-13 tie in their last encounter on Nov. 16, 2008. The game is likely best remembered for then-Eagles QB Donovan McNabb admitting that he didn't know an NFL contest could end in a tie.


==================





Tale of the Tape: Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles
by Sean Murphy

The Philadelphia Eagles will aim to play spoiler when they host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Find out which side has the edge with our tale of the tape.

Offense

After scoring at least 28 points in three consecutive games the Bengals offense has sputtered over the last couple of weeks, putting up only 39 points combined in splitting two games against the Chargers and Cowboys. Quarterback Andy Dalton has already thrown more interceptions this season (14) than he did in his entire rookie campaign last year (13). Of course, he's also thrown five more touchdown passes. Cincinnati has made a concerted effort to get its ground game rolling and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has responded by running for 437 yards over the last four games.

The Eagles offense has shown steady improvement since rookie QB Nick Foles took over for an injured Michael Vick. Last Sunday, Foles threw for a career-high 381 yards and two touchdowns in a come-from-behind win over the Bucs. While RB Bryce Brown had been a force in the previous two weeks, he was held to only six yards on 12 carries in Tampa Bay. They'll need to get him going again with LeSean McCoy expected to miss at least one more game.

Edge: Bengals

Defense

When healthy, the Bengals own one of the more underrated defenses in the entire league. It looks like LB Rey Maualuga will be able to play Thursday after suffering an ankle injury against Dallas. You would have to go all the way back to November 4 to find the last time the Bengals allowed more than 20 points in a game. They've held four of their last five opponents to 13 points or less, paving the way for a five-game under streak.

The Eagles finally stopped the bleeding this past Sunday, holding the Bucs to 21 points after allowing at least 30 in four consecutive games. They limited Bucs QB Josh Freeman to only 14-of-34 passing, but didn't record a single turnover in the win. In fact, they haven't forced a turnover since November 5 in New Orleans. That's a streak that will need to come to an end if they're going to string together a second straight win this week. Corner Nnamdi Asomugha is questionable to play due to a quad injury.

Edge: Bengals

Special Teams

Cincinnati has been terrific defending punt returns, holding the opposition to just north of eight yards per return. It has also been effective on the flip side, averaging 11.6 yards per punt return and 22.9 yards per kickoff return. Bengals kicker Mike Nugent is 19 for 23 on field goal attempts this season, but he was forced to miss last week's game due to a calf injury. Josh Brown made good on all four field goal attempts in Nugent's absence last Sunday.

The Eagles fall right around the league average in terms of punt and kick returning, but have struggled defending them, giving up 13.7 yards per punt return and 26 yards per kickoff return. Kicker Alex Henery has been a bright spot, connecting on 23 of 26 field goal attempts.

Edge: Bengals

Word on the Street

?We have the opportunity to still control our own end, from now until the end. We still have an opportunity to win the division. We still have an opportunity to qualify for the playoffs in a couple of ways. That?s all we can ask for." -- Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis on his team's playoff prospects following last Sunday's loss to Dallas.

"More important than (playing the spoiler is to) play for yourself. Play for this organization. Those are the things we?re going to try to do right now and we have another good opportunity to do that Thursday." -- Eagles WR Jeremy Maclin on what's left to play for as the season winds down.

_________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

Bengals (7-6) @ Eagles (4-9)?Tend to favor contending team in these short-week games, since injured guys more likely to suck it up and play, but Cincy gagged away game with Dallas last week, ending 4-game win streak; AJ Green caught three balls for 44 yards, dropped two passes in clutch spots that cost Bengals four points each in game they should?ve won. Bengals won last two road games, didn?t allow offensive TD on 21 drives; they are 3-3 as favorite this year, 1-1 on road. Since 2010, they?re 4-2-1 as road favorites. Iggles snapped 8-game skid with win at Tampa Sun day, scoring on last play of game; they?ve lost last four home games, allowing 31 ppg (13 TD?s/43 drives). Cincy leads this series 7-3-1, are 4-3 here; last time these teams met was 13-13 tie in ?08, last NFL tie until Rams-Niners last month. AFC North favorites are 9-11 vs spread, 4-4 on road; NFC East underdogs are 10-5, 1-2 at home. Last five Bengal games stayed under; five of six Philly home games went over.



=========


NFL DUNKEL

Cincinnati at Philadelphia

The Bengals look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Cincinnati is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 13
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST (12/12)

Game 301-302: Cincinnati at Philadelphia (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.088; Philadelphia 128.476
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-3 1/2); Under
_________________________

BEST BET
CINCINNATI over *PHILADELPHIA by 7

Philly head coach Andy Reid isn?t going out without a fight, on his own ridiculous terms. Which usually means ignoring the running game at his quarterback?s peril.
Believe it or not, the Eagles pulled out the road victory against Tampa Bay while having Nick Foles chuck it up 51 times ? this despite the sensational rookie Bryce Brown running for 334 yards and four TDs over the previous two weeks and establishing himself as a force to be reckoned with. To be fair, Tampa Bay boasted the best statistical run defense in football and the worst pass defense going into last week, while ranking 30th in the league in sacks ? attack weakness, avoid strength. Makes good sense. But Foles has now thrown the ball 184 times in his first five career starts, standing behind one of the worst offensive lines in football.
Also, Philadelphia is 1-4 SU & 2-3 ATS in those five games, if you prefer results based numbers. That kind of offensive game-plan isn?t going to fly against a Bengals team that was straight robbed last week by the Cowboys and leads the NFL in sacks. Another big reason for Cincinnati putting up fewer points than expected was the sub-par play of A.J. Green, who uncharacteristically let several passes clank off his hands, including a certain TD. Expect a bounce back performance from the young receiver who is likely to face an Eagles secondary missing Nnamdi Asomugha due to injury.
CINCINNATI, 24-17.
-----------------



KEY RELEASE

CINCINNATI by 14 over Philadelphia (Thursday, Dec. 13)
*Cincinnati 27 - PHILADELPHIA 13?Andy Reid (who last week dismissed another assistant, DL coach Jim Washburn) is acting as if he thinks he?ll return as Philly HC next year. Which, as could be expected, has generated a pretty interesting response on 610 WIP. (Our thinking is that Andy is more likely to be in San Diego in 2013, but we digress.) Meanwhile, rookie QB Nick Foles has gained enough confidence to generate a last-second, game-winning drive at Tampa Bay to snap the Birds? 8-game losing streak. But Cincy has a major pass rush (42 sacks) to attack the problematic Eagle OL and disrupt Foles, while Mike Zimmer?s Bengal stop unit has allowed just 12 ppg last five.
Even after its late loss to Dallas, Cincy still controls its wildcard prospects.

 

[Senor Capper]

Here?s another one of those late-season matchups that looked so good on
paper back in August but now appears to be nothing more than a chance
for Philly to adopt the role of salmonella and spoil the 7-6 Bengals? hopes
for a second straight trip to the playoffs. Series history tells us the Eagles
have about as much chance of derailing Cincinnati as dazed-and-confused
QB Michael Vick has of getting his job back from Nick Foles: the Green
Birds are 0-8 ATS in the last eight Bengal battles, including six straight
pointspread dumps at the Linc. But Andy Reid?s bunch hasn?t thrown in
the towel yet, battling back from a 21-10 defi cit at Tampa Bay last Sunday
to stun the Bucs in the game?s fi nal seconds, 23-21, and halt an unsightly
8-game losing streak. A closer look into our all-seeing database spells out
a heap of bad news for Cincy. Head coach Marvin Lewis has covered the
spread ONCE in 13 tries (1-9-3 ATS) in games off a SU favorite loss when
his club owns a .400 or better record on the season, plus the Queen City
crew is a dreadful 0-4 ATS as chalk versus a foe off a SU underdog win.
Philly piles on the pain with a strong 11-3-1 ATS effort as a home dog
tackling an opponent off a SU favorite loss (6-0 ATS L6) and has cashed
seven consecutive tickets on Game Fourteen of the season. Toss in the
hosts? spotless 3-0 SUATS mark at home on Thursdays and it looks like the
striped cats will be sliding back to .500 land after the fi nal guns sounds
here tonight. Eagles, outright.



Cincinnati 0-4 favs vs opp off SU dog win? 1-5 O/U Game Fourteen
PHILADELPHIA 8-0 HD?s 4 < pts vs opp off SU fav loss? 3-0 H Thursday

 

[Senor Capper]

Cincinnati over *Philadelphia by 4 (Thursday)
The Bengals are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games. A victory at Tampa Bay
this past Sunday ended an eight-game losing streak for the Eagles. So their sagging
spirits should be boosted for this nationally televised matchup. The Bengals had
won four in a row until falling on the final play last Sunday to Dallas. The Bengals
are giving up just 12.4 points per game in their past five matchups, while the
Eagles have surrendered 30 or more points in five of their last seven games. Andy
Dalton has fired 11 touchdown passes during the past five weeks and BenJarvus
Green-Ellis has rushed for an average of 109 yards in the past four weeks.
CINCINNATI 24-20

 

[Senor Capper]

Game Breakdown: The new-look Eagles have a chance to play
spoiler again. They knocked off Tampa in on the final play last
week, as rookie QB Nick Foles played by far his best game of the
year (32-51, 381 yards, 2 TDs, rush TD, no turnovers). RB Bryce
Brown was bottled up against the Bucs? excellent run defense,
but he should be relatively fresh on the short week after just
14 touches. The Bengals had taken advantage of a soft spot in
the schedule, but couldn?t get off the field against the Cowboys
last week, allowing Dallas to go 11-for-19 on third down. They?ve
played well on the road this year (4-2 SU and ATS).


Betting System:
Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points - off an upset loss as a favorite, with a winning
record on the season. (31-7 Over) Play = Over the total
Series history ? Last 5 seasons:
PHILADELPHIA is 0-1 ATS (0-0 SU) vs. CINCINNATI (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)
StatFox Six Pack:
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS at home vs. poor pass def. - allowing comp. pct. of 61%+ over the L2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-10 ATS in home lined games over the L2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 16-6 ATS against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 4-13 ATS away vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yds/ret since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 15-4 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.



Forecaster :
CINCINNATI 26
PHILADELPHIA 20

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL Week 15 Preview: Bengals at Eagles

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Cincinnati -4, Total: 45

After a last-second loss last Sunday, the Bengals try to keep their playoff hopes alive on Thursday night when they visit Philadelphia.

The new-look Eagles have a chance to play spoiler again. They knocked off Tampa Bay on the final play last week, as rookie QB Nick Foles played by far his best game of the year (32-of-51, 381 yards, 2 TD, rush TD, no turnovers). RB Bryce Brown (12 carries for six yards) was bottled up against the Bucs' excellent run defense, but he should be relatively fresh on the short week after just 14 touches. The Bengals had taken advantage of a soft spot in the schedule, but couldn?t get off the field against the Cowboys last week, allowing Dallas to go 11-for-19 on third down and overcoming a late nine-point deficit to win at Cincinnati on a last-second field goal. The Bengals have played well on the road this year at 4-2 (SU and ATS), while the Eagles are winless ATS at home (0-5-1).

Bengals QB Andy Dalton has been underwhelming in his past two games, throwing for just 417 yards on 71 attempts (5.9 YPA) with 2 TD and 3 INT. He was also sacked five times versus Dallas last week. However, Dalton is facing an Eagles pass rush tallying 22 sacks this year (tied for third-fewest in the NFL) and Philly's pass defense has not intercepted a pass in seven straight games, allowing 18 TD over this span. Dalton also has one of the top wideouts in the game in A.J. Green, who is eager to put last week's poor outing behind him when he had a couple of key dropped passes and just 44 receiving yards, his second lowest output of the season. Green has had no trouble getting open on the road this year, compiling 681 yards and 5 TD in six games. Cincinnati also has a workhorse running back that has gotten stronger down the stretch in BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who has 437 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) over the past four games. The Eagles run defense isn't horrible (119 YPG, 17th in NFL), but they have surrendered more than 100 rushing yards in nine straight games. A big reason for the Bengals recent success (4-1 SU and ATS in past five games), has been their ability to hold onto the football with 0-to-1 giveaways in six of their past seven contests.

Foles is coming off a great game in Tampa Bay, but he was sacked six times, something that could be problematic against a Bengals defense that leads the NFL this year with 42 sacks. Cincinnati's defense in general has played extremely well in the past five games, allowing just 12.4 PPG on 281 total YPG. Foles will not have the services of three injured starters in RB LeSean McCoy (concussion), WR DeSean Jackson (ribs) and TE Brent Celek (concussion), but he will likely rely heavily on WR Jeremy Maclin again after the receiver posted nine catches (on 13 targets) for 104 yards and the 1-yard TD reception on the final play of the game last Sunday. WR Jason Avant has also come up big in his starting role replacing Jackson, catching 11 passes for 212 yards over the past two games. The Eagles boast the league's ninth-best rushing offense (126 YPG), but 65 percent of those yards came from McCoy and injured QB Michael Vick. Brown has been impressive with 5.7 yards per carry, but his four fumbles (three lost) in just 87 attempts are also worrisome. Philly's offensive line has been gashed with injuries all season, and the Bengals have absolutely stuffed the run in the past three weeks, allowing just 194 yards on 58 carries (3.3 YPC). Turnovers have been a big issue for the Eagles all season, as they lead the NFC with 29 giveaways.

 

[Senor Capper]

NFL CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA

Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games against opponent after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games.
165-95 since 1997. ( 63.5% 0.0 units )
4-3 this year. ( 57.1% 0.0 units )

_________________________



UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati -4.5 over PHILADELPHIA: This game is huge for the Bengals if they expect to make the playoffs, especially will Pittsburgh and the Ravens on deck. Last week the Eagles had a good game vs the Bucs and Foles had a break out gout throwing for 381 yards, but lets remember that that was expected because he was up against the worst pass defense in the league. Now this Eagles team gets to take on a Cincinnati team that 6th in defense overall and 10th vs the pass. A big part of that Bengal defense is their pass rush, which leads the league with 42 sacks. That is not good for a makeshift OL that is 30th in sacks allowed. What makes it worse for the Eagles is they are playing a ton of youngsters and on a short week. On defense the Eagles have been bad this year and have gotten worse as the season has gone on, allowing 30.3 ppg in their last 8 games. The Bengals come in 11th in scoring and should be able to get some big plays vs the Eagles defense in this one. Philly will not lay down in this one, but I just feel that a more desperate Bengals team will pull away in the second half.

2 UNIT PLAY

Philly/ Cincy Under 45

 

[Senor Capper]

Only one team is playing for its playoff future on Thursday Night Football, but the Philadelphia Eagles are playing for much more as they host the Cincinnati Bengals and try to bring this team back from the brink of a total housecleaning.

The Bengals (7-6) have turned their season around since a loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 that left them 3-5. Since then, the Bengals are 4-1 and in the driver's seat for a wild-card spot if they can take care of business for the rest of the season. Then again, if the Bengals don't beat the easily beatable opponents, it could be Marvin Lewis whose job is on the line this offseason.

The Eagles (4-9) have come apart at the seams, and as coach after coach is let go, the seat of head coach Andy Reid gets hotter and hotter by the day. Can Nick Foles cool it off with a fantastic end of the season? Feasibly, yes.

It will be interesting to see how probable that hope is for the Eagles faithful. After Cincinnati, it's Washington and the Giants on tap. The end of the season could be awfully embarrassing if the Eagles aren't at their best.

So, which of these teams comes out on top on Thursday night?






Key Storyline No. 1: Are the Bengals Ready for Prime Time?

The Bengals have been good, but not great, this season, which has pretty much been their M.O. for as long as most of my readers have watched football. While Cris Collinsworth and Anthony Munoz aren't walking through that door, the Bengals have more talent than they've shown on the field.

Losses to the Browns and Dolphins earlier this season call coaching into question, and a loss to the Eagles would likely do the same.

The offense has no excuse not being one of the top units in the NFL, and the defense, while consistently underrated, is probably a year or two away from being able to carry a team like the top guns in the AFC North.

Going on the road for Thursday Night Football is not an easy task. If Marvin Lewis and his staff don't have this team ready, it will be another embarrassment and make this decade-long rebuilding plan last even further into the future.



Key Storyline No. 2: Can Andy Reid Save His Job?

Note: That subheadline doesn't say should he be able to save his job. Reid probably should have been gone a few years ago and certainly has lost this team in a way that can hardly be quantified unless one watches the sad trombone-accompanied antics week in and week out.

Honestly, like Norv Turner in San Diego, the game looks like it has passed Reid by, and personnel issues have left him completely unequipped to win football games.

Still, as mentioned above, Reid is in "ride or die" mode with Foles right now. He's given up his stubborn attempts to salvage Mike Vick's career and is hoping that Foles can win out the season and put his team back on the right track.

As exciting as that might be for Eagles fans, that could be the worst possible situation for them long-term.



Keys for the Cincinnati Bengals

If the Bengals want to win this game, they need to put the pedal to the metal and keep both hands on the wheel.


If the analogy wasn't clear, the Bengals aren't going to win this game by managing the offense down the field and keeping the score low. The Eagles can't stop A.J. Green and won't be able to put consistent pressure on Andy Dalton if the Bengals' underrated offensive line does its job.

By taking shots and running up the score, the Bengals will make more mistakes, yes, but as long as they "keep both hands on the wheel" and don't lose total control of the game, they should be able to force the Eagles into plenty of mistakes of their own.

Defensively, Geno Atkins is going to be a huge part of the Bengals' success. The Eagles' interior offensive line has been terrible this season, and Atkins has been one of the best players in all of football. Foles won't have success if he never has a pocket to set up in.



Keys for the Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have done a better job running the ball with Bryce Brown in the backfield, and that needs to continue. Ball security isn't going to stop being an issue, but it isn't like the passing game is built to protect the ball, either. Running the ball will keep Atkins from tearing Foles apart, and that should be mission No. 1 on Thursday night.

If they're going to pass, they need to eschew the downfield stuff almost entirely. It is crazy to expect a five- or seven-step drop to come out cleanly when that Bengals pass rush has been so good.

On defense, the Eagles are scrapping the wide nine, but it wouldn't be crazy to show that look every so often, just to keep the Bengals line on its toes. Getting to Dalton isn't going to be easy, but if you can pressure him, he tends to fold more quickly than not. The Eagles defensive backs aren't going to stick with Green, Andrew Hawkins, Mohamed Sanu and Jermaine Gresham, so it's up to the front seven to create some mistakes.



Bold Prediction: The Teams Combine for Seven Total Turnovers

Overall, this should be a sloppy game.

The Eagles are just a sloppy team (read: poorly coached) overall, and the Bengals are behind the eight ball on the road in a short week. Expect a slow start from both and a gradual heat-up to what should be a solid game to watch toward the end, if viewers can uncover their eyes after all the miscues.



Player of the Game Prediction: Geno Atkins

A big part of forcing those turnovers for the Bengals is going to be Atkins, who I've already mentioned has an easy matchup against the Eagles' interior. He'll push the pocket (using the word "pocket" loosely) and create a lot of unquantifiable pressure on top of the tackles, sacks, hits and hurries.

Atkins and the rest of that Bengals pass rush is a huge reason why the Bengals will weather the storm of early-game mistakes and triumph on Thursday Night Football.



Final Score Prediction: Bengals 20; Eagles 17