TURTLE BAY CHAMPIONSHIP
- Thread starter DOGS THAT BARK
- Start date
Outright plays (2pts):
D.A. Weibring to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Retained as a selection despite his final round failings last week. On the positive side, he had been in the top-10 throughout the week until that point and he has become a very consistent top-10 finisher on this Tour, just as he was when finishing 6th in the last Turtle Bay Championship in October 2003.
Rodger Davis to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Davis did get a mention in last week's page at 100/1 and though he is only half those odds now, he gets the selection this week. Following on from his top-10 finish in the Australian Open, he finished 7th last week and can certainly build on that as his record in Hawaii is very good. On this course alone he has finished 11th and 5th, so he could finally fulfil his Champions Tour potential this week.
Dick Mast to win 100/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
After two years blighted by injury, Mast is fully fit and eager to finally secure his Champions Tour career. He has only conditional status on the Tour this year after finishing 12th at Q-School and had been entering the Monday qualifiers for the PGA Tour for the last two weeks only to get his game into some competitive shape ahead for this event. As it happens, he qualified for both events, matching his career-low 64 in the Sony Open in Hawaii to finish 47th, having been 16th with just one round to play. It far exceeded his expectations and with a course history of 15th, 3rd and 19th, he can be aiming a lot higher up the leaderboard this week. He is certainly playing well enough to cause another surprise this year.
D.A. Weibring to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Retained as a selection despite his final round failings last week. On the positive side, he had been in the top-10 throughout the week until that point and he has become a very consistent top-10 finisher on this Tour, just as he was when finishing 6th in the last Turtle Bay Championship in October 2003.
Rodger Davis to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Davis did get a mention in last week's page at 100/1 and though he is only half those odds now, he gets the selection this week. Following on from his top-10 finish in the Australian Open, he finished 7th last week and can certainly build on that as his record in Hawaii is very good. On this course alone he has finished 11th and 5th, so he could finally fulfil his Champions Tour potential this week.
Dick Mast to win 100/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
After two years blighted by injury, Mast is fully fit and eager to finally secure his Champions Tour career. He has only conditional status on the Tour this year after finishing 12th at Q-School and had been entering the Monday qualifiers for the PGA Tour for the last two weeks only to get his game into some competitive shape ahead for this event. As it happens, he qualified for both events, matching his career-low 64 in the Sony Open in Hawaii to finish 47th, having been 16th with just one round to play. It far exceeded his expectations and with a course history of 15th, 3rd and 19th, he can be aiming a lot higher up the leaderboard this week. He is certainly playing well enough to cause another surprise this year.
Matchup plays (4pts unless stated):
Morris Hatalsky to beat Brad Bryant -118 @ Centrebet [6pts]
Bryant did finish 3rd at the Champions Tour Q-School, but he was playing barely 100 miles from his home. He had a sizeable advantage that week and if there is any return to his form outside that event, this should be an easy win. His last top-25 finish was eight years ago, so with no course form and no top-10 finishes in his entire PGA Tour career in Hawaii, he is opposed heavily this week. Hatalsky has the potential to win this event, particularly having finished 6th in each of his last two starts on this course.
Gil Morgan to beat Brad Bryant -160 @ Five Dimes [6pts]
While there could be some doubt about the first match, there should be about this one. This may be Morgan's first time on this course, but having finished 3rd last week in Hawaii, he has shown that he is still very competitive on this Tour. Justifiably short odds.
D.A. Weibring to beat Tom Purtzer -110 @ BetFred
These two were level after each of the first two rounds until Weibring had a poor Sunday. But that was the only time in their last ten common events that Purtzer had finished ahead of Weibring. He didn't do it last time they played here either. So despite last week's results, I'll side with the outright selection again over the more erratic Purtzer.
(also available at Five Dimes)
Bruce Lietzke to beat Jerry Pate -114 @ Expekt
Don't expect either of these to be on the leaderboard on Sunday evening, but with Lietzke winning seven of their last ten matches, I'll side with him. It also helps that, unlike Pate, he competed in Hawaii last week so will be less rusty and he will have been pleased to have improved with every round.
Morris Hatalsky to beat Brad Bryant -118 @ Centrebet [6pts]
Bryant did finish 3rd at the Champions Tour Q-School, but he was playing barely 100 miles from his home. He had a sizeable advantage that week and if there is any return to his form outside that event, this should be an easy win. His last top-25 finish was eight years ago, so with no course form and no top-10 finishes in his entire PGA Tour career in Hawaii, he is opposed heavily this week. Hatalsky has the potential to win this event, particularly having finished 6th in each of his last two starts on this course.
Gil Morgan to beat Brad Bryant -160 @ Five Dimes [6pts]
While there could be some doubt about the first match, there should be about this one. This may be Morgan's first time on this course, but having finished 3rd last week in Hawaii, he has shown that he is still very competitive on this Tour. Justifiably short odds.
D.A. Weibring to beat Tom Purtzer -110 @ BetFred
These two were level after each of the first two rounds until Weibring had a poor Sunday. But that was the only time in their last ten common events that Purtzer had finished ahead of Weibring. He didn't do it last time they played here either. So despite last week's results, I'll side with the outright selection again over the more erratic Purtzer.
(also available at Five Dimes)
Bruce Lietzke to beat Jerry Pate -114 @ Expekt
Don't expect either of these to be on the leaderboard on Sunday evening, but with Lietzke winning seven of their last ten matches, I'll side with him. It also helps that, unlike Pate, he competed in Hawaii last week so will be less rusty and he will have been pleased to have improved with every round.
OUTRIGHTS:
Dana Quigley(16/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Not picking up that winning marker. Simple as that . . . Beyond that, Dick Mast @ 40/1 wouldn't be quite the same as 100/1.
GL
Dana Quigley(16/1) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Not picking up that winning marker. Simple as that . . . Beyond that, Dick Mast @ 40/1 wouldn't be quite the same as 100/1.
GL
4th round at 5 dimes:
Thorpe -120 over Bryant
along with reasons against Bryant above in Stan's posts, Thorpe thru the years has been in the top group the last few years in final round avg. including 3rd last year.
Thorpe -120 over Bryant
along with reasons against Bryant above in Stan's posts, Thorpe thru the years has been in the top group the last few years in final round avg. including 3rd last year.
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -0.80pts
Weibring 27th
Davis 57th
Mast 5th
A rather disappointing return from Dick Mast. Not only did he hold a two shot lead on Friday before shooting double-triple bogey on the 16th and 17th holes, but he was clear in 2nd place and within a few shots of Hale Irwin by the turn on Sunday. However, he played the last six holes in two-over-par and the only return was a five-way tie for 5th place.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-1-0; +6.92pts
Hatalsky/Bryant LOST by 3
Morgan/Bryant WON by 2
Weibring/Purtzer WON by 1
Lietzke/Pate WON by 3
Won the close ones for a decent profit but had looked set for a dead-heat on the 6pt Hatalsky play as they were tied with one hole to play ... and the 3-shot swing on that hole went the wrong way! Still a very profitable event overall.
Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 1-5; -6.80pts
Matchups: 5-2; +7.70pts
Weibring 27th
Davis 57th
Mast 5th
A rather disappointing return from Dick Mast. Not only did he hold a two shot lead on Friday before shooting double-triple bogey on the 16th and 17th holes, but he was clear in 2nd place and within a few shots of Hale Irwin by the turn on Sunday. However, he played the last six holes in two-over-par and the only return was a five-way tie for 5th place.
Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-1-0; +6.92pts
Hatalsky/Bryant LOST by 3
Morgan/Bryant WON by 2
Weibring/Purtzer WON by 1
Lietzke/Pate WON by 3
Won the close ones for a decent profit but had looked set for a dead-heat on the 6pt Hatalsky play as they were tied with one hole to play ... and the 3-shot swing on that hole went the wrong way! Still a very profitable event overall.
Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 1-5; -6.80pts
Matchups: 5-2; +7.70pts
Was a great call on Mast Stan. Nerves got to him in end I believe. Was exciting finish---Had him top 4 @ Cbet #@$##$%$--and still thought I had chance on last hole with Dana in the brush and Doyle in the water.
