Tuuuzday Twosome! thoughts n picks

LordofBalls

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75 deg.. sunshine n bluuue skies above... I'll take it :SIB

My family moved to OC in 1963 when I was 6 yrs old... I got 3 older bros and we've always been split (light heartedly) on Dodgers/Angels.. USC/UCLA... and have always followed these teams.

1) Usc +8.5 vs Gonzaga.... total 152.5 (dropped another pt)
Coaching: Both proven coaches, looking to win their 1st Ncaa title.. great recruiters.. disciplined teams (Zags all year... Usc the last few wks have looked great... up n down during reg season)
My guess is:
USC will try to control the tempo of the game, get bk on defense and set up their zone, and play in and out w/their perimeter shooters and Mobleys inside game...
Gonzage will want to push in transition whenever possible, create 2 on 1, 3 on 2 situations and attack the basket. From set offense, pass it into high post and let Timme create or dish to perimeter shooters

What I'm really looking forward to watching:
Gonzaga's Timme posting on the Mobley bros... Timme very talented, can shoot w/either hand around the basket.. facing young, long-limbed shot-blocking Mobleys... should be great!
What I think will happen:
If you watched Ore/Usc the other night, Trojans put on a 2-3 zone that stifled the Ducks.
Ducks got the ball inside but couldn't get off a shot.. or had it blocked.. or had it altered by nearly getting blocked. Oregon got the ball at the FT line repeatedly, and only Duarte knew what to do with it and how to create points from there... Gonz will NOT have that problem.

It's in my nature to root for Usc... but I gotta tell ya.. this Gonzaga is one of the best teams I've ever seen. Their desire to get into transition game (highly effective), their motion offense, their perimeter shooting from like 4 diff guys - including maybe the best in the country (Kispert)

They will push push push and as Usc falls behind, they will have to up their own tempo
I cant see ANY team's defense stopping this Gonzaga offense.. they may miss shots, but I think they'll get a LOT of good shots up

PLAYS:
1Half OVER 72 (tms avg around 77 combined)
gm OV 152
Par) Gonz -6.5/OV 151.5


2) Ucla +6.5 vs Mich... total 136

I don't know how Ucla will deal w/Michigan's big guy (Dickenson)... he's very good!
Honestly, the rest of Mich doesn't do that much for me..
Bruins have Tiger at guard who's grown on me over the months.. and Jaqez is their best player I think.. tough.. but only around 6.6" or so..?

I'm TORN... no pick at this time... if I HAD to... I'd go Ucla plus pts.. wouldn't be surprised if they lost tonight due to the big man in dark blue... we'll see

might be bk before tip...

fantasy baseball draft gonna screw up the whole night for me lol


post your picks guys! and GL

LoB
 

gardenweasel

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i really like what i`ve seen of usc....a little disappointed they`re facing gonzaga this early......i think a michigan/usc match-up would have been a helluva game....
 

LUNCH PAIL

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LOB....DID YOU WATCH A LOT OF PAC 12 GAMES DURING THE SEASON? I DID NOT AND WAS CURIOUS TO WHAT COLORADO DID SO WELL AGAINST USC AND DOES GONZAGA DO THOSE THINGS EVEN BETTER....THE GAMES I SAW COLORADO PLAY THEY WENT AS THEIR GUARD WENT AND FROM WHAT I HAVE SEEN SUGGS IS A BETTER GUARD.


THESE ARE THE GAMES I HATE BC I START TO OVER THINK :mj03:
 

LordofBalls

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I have seen a lot of Pac 12 this yr...

Colo has a big guy named Battey, and he's more physical than the Mobley brothers, and he played w/a chip on his shoulder and was downright fierce in their game vs usc.. he was a bigg reason
and
the guard (?) was very good also!

USC can be beat.. Oregon had opportunities buy was unable to create plays when they had ball at FT line facing the basket and E. Mobley... I don't think Gonz will have that problem.. they won't hesitate to shoot, and they're VERY good at cutting around the basket... Oregon seemed very tentative.. almost scared of getting shot blocked

it'll be diff cuz I think Mobleys will indeed get some blocks.. I just think Zags have too much coming from too many other spots to stop...

I think they run and force the pace, and pull away by DD late... just my take:0003

I played 1h OVER the 72 to fill in a big parlay I've got.. USC hasnt played ANYbody that can do what Gonz does on the offensive side of the ball.. I don't think there IS a team that can do what they do lol
 

LordofBalls

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PLAYS I MADE:

Par) Gonz -6.5/OV 150.5/______ <<< 373/1605

Par) Gonz ml/Ov 150/Bay ml/Ov 133.5<<< 533/2185


filled in my 2 parlays with...

P1) W/W/!st Half OV 72... 373/1541

P2) W/W/1st half UN 72... 333/675

yep.... that's what I did... gonna win 1200+ or 300+.... and be a lil pissed lol

LIKE Zaga OVER... ALL tout services I saw were on UNDER... ALL... not one on over (which to me is like Bay gm last night)

Best o'Luck guys!
 

LordofBalls

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DANGGGG!!!

these frggn numbers on the totals are TIGHT!!! Really needed those 2 pts at the end of the Usc game... 151! :0008
This is why I buy pts in the parlays and even the straight plays... I've lost lots of close ones the last month, and won a few more.. whew!

Results:

1) Hit par w/1h Gonz OV... +1541..... lost the 1h un par (-333)... net = +1208

2) had par working... W/1h Gonz -4.5/1h mich ml... 50/250 (Loss = -50)

3) HEDGED with.... 2h Gonz UN 79.5/1h ucla ml/______ <<< 77/708 <<Still alive!


For the Day... + 1058

I Loved Gonz and Over as the gm approached, but couldn't really decide on ucla/mich...
so I played these:

1)
[CBB] - [657] TOTAL o150?-150 (B+2) (USC vrs GONZAGA) [Won] (Score: 85-66)
[CBB] - [658] GONZAGA -6?-150 (B+2) [Won] (Score: 85-66)

[OPEN PLAY]
Pending $373/$1,605

2)
[CBB] - [801] TOTAL o133?-150 (B+2) (HOUSTON vrs BAYLOR) [Pending]
[CBB] - [802] BAYLOR -3?-140 (B+1?) [Pending]

Pending $555/$1,030

plus the hedge play from above...
3)
[CBB] - [1659] 1H UCLA +180 [Won] (Score: 23-27)
[CBB] - [2658] TOTAL u79?-110 (2H USC vrs 2H GONZAGA) [Won] (Score: 36-36)

[OPEN PLAY]
Pending $77/$708

ALL this was going on while I was involved in a fantasy baseball draft that started about 5 mins left in 1h of Gonzaga..
which just finished about half hr ago.. and I didn't screw my bets up today! :00hour

So... 3 good pars... Imma gonna need that Hou/Bay gm to hit 134 or higher... and Bay ml/-3.5...

that's what we're gonna try for... I just don't see Houston being able to keep up on the scoreboard...

75-61 Baylor would work... 70-64 would work for me... not sure about hedging yet
 
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