I don't usually post my plays on this site, but I have hit a cold spell recently, so I decided to change my mojo a little bit. Hopefully it works out.
First---I'm looking for a little divine intervention with the Friars of Providence tonight, getting 5 points from Florida State. The public (early numbers) is all over Fla. State, and it is easy to see why. They are 11-2, having won 7 straight. They beat the defending national champs Florida, a team which beat Providence.
But let's dig deeper. Other than Florida, Fla. State has been beating up on the cupcakes of college hoops (St. Peter's; Coastal Carolina; High Point; SE Louisiana; Stetson; Georgia State; etc...you get the point). Providence did lose to Florida, but they have beaten some quality teams this year (Boston College and George Washington). But the stats are what makes this play special.
Fla State averages 75.4 points per game. Providence averages 79.8 ppg. Fla State averages 31.4 rebounds per game. Providence averages 38.3 rpg. Fla State has an impressive field goal percentage of .492. Well get this, Providence shoots OVER 50% (at .508). Last but not least, Fla State shoots .336% from behind the 3 point line, while Providence shoots .398% from long distance.
Add all that up, and to me, it means that the Friars of Providence, getting 5 points from Florida State tonight, are a solid play.
As for my second play, I don't usually like to take huge favorites, but sometimes you just have to lay the wood. Huge favorites are huge favorites for a reason. Tonight I really like the Colorado State Rams to throttle the Alabama State Hornets. The spread is 19 points, and it probably should be even higher. Alabama State is 2-7 on the year. They play a 3 guard, 2 forward set, with their tallest regular player being 6 foot 7 inches. Hell, the tallest guy on the entire team is only a 6 foot 8 inch freshman. We all know how bad Georgia State is. Well, this team lost to Georgia State by 11 points !!
Meanwhile, Colorado State is 8-2 on the year, having won 7 in a row. They have 4 players that average 10 or more points per game. Amongst their starting 5, they have not one, but two seven footers ! They are led by 7 foot junior forward Jason Smith, who averages 18 ppg. and 10 rpg. They also have 7 foot junior center Stuart Creason, who averages 10.7 ppg and 5.7 rpg. Who will stop these guys ?? Certainly not anyone on Alabama State.
As for the stats, well they are predictably heavily in favor of Colorado State. Colo. State averages 75.4 ppg, while Ala. State averages only 56.9 ppg. Colo. State averages 36 rebounds per game, while Ala. State averages only 30.2 rpg. In terms of field goal percentage, Colo. State shoots .478%, while Alabama State shoots a miserable .341%. How about free throw percentage ? Colo. State is at .706%, while Ala. State is at .646%. Last but not least, in terms of 3 point shooting percentage, Colo. State is at .358%, while Ala. State is a woeful .290%.
This has all the makings of a whooping. Colorado State should (easily) cover the 19 point spread here.
Those are my plays for Friday. Play 'em or fade 'em.
First---I'm looking for a little divine intervention with the Friars of Providence tonight, getting 5 points from Florida State. The public (early numbers) is all over Fla. State, and it is easy to see why. They are 11-2, having won 7 straight. They beat the defending national champs Florida, a team which beat Providence.
But let's dig deeper. Other than Florida, Fla. State has been beating up on the cupcakes of college hoops (St. Peter's; Coastal Carolina; High Point; SE Louisiana; Stetson; Georgia State; etc...you get the point). Providence did lose to Florida, but they have beaten some quality teams this year (Boston College and George Washington). But the stats are what makes this play special.
Fla State averages 75.4 points per game. Providence averages 79.8 ppg. Fla State averages 31.4 rebounds per game. Providence averages 38.3 rpg. Fla State has an impressive field goal percentage of .492. Well get this, Providence shoots OVER 50% (at .508). Last but not least, Fla State shoots .336% from behind the 3 point line, while Providence shoots .398% from long distance.
Add all that up, and to me, it means that the Friars of Providence, getting 5 points from Florida State tonight, are a solid play.
As for my second play, I don't usually like to take huge favorites, but sometimes you just have to lay the wood. Huge favorites are huge favorites for a reason. Tonight I really like the Colorado State Rams to throttle the Alabama State Hornets. The spread is 19 points, and it probably should be even higher. Alabama State is 2-7 on the year. They play a 3 guard, 2 forward set, with their tallest regular player being 6 foot 7 inches. Hell, the tallest guy on the entire team is only a 6 foot 8 inch freshman. We all know how bad Georgia State is. Well, this team lost to Georgia State by 11 points !!
Meanwhile, Colorado State is 8-2 on the year, having won 7 in a row. They have 4 players that average 10 or more points per game. Amongst their starting 5, they have not one, but two seven footers ! They are led by 7 foot junior forward Jason Smith, who averages 18 ppg. and 10 rpg. They also have 7 foot junior center Stuart Creason, who averages 10.7 ppg and 5.7 rpg. Who will stop these guys ?? Certainly not anyone on Alabama State.
As for the stats, well they are predictably heavily in favor of Colorado State. Colo. State averages 75.4 ppg, while Ala. State averages only 56.9 ppg. Colo. State averages 36 rebounds per game, while Ala. State averages only 30.2 rpg. In terms of field goal percentage, Colo. State shoots .478%, while Alabama State shoots a miserable .341%. How about free throw percentage ? Colo. State is at .706%, while Ala. State is at .646%. Last but not least, in terms of 3 point shooting percentage, Colo. State is at .358%, while Ala. State is a woeful .290%.
This has all the makings of a whooping. Colorado State should (easily) cover the 19 point spread here.
Those are my plays for Friday. Play 'em or fade 'em.
