Two plays for Sunday. . .

[Nickelback]

Here's one to get on early:

South Illinois minus 8 best bet:

Vegas must be banking on the fact that nobody knows about South Illinois! Well, I'll do my part to inform those at MadJacks! Perhaps their best game is the only loss of the season at Illinois by 3. This team also beat a very good Indiana team by 12 at home! Pretty sure that Vegas feels all the money would come in on the home team in this matchup, CS Northridge, if the line was above 10. Get on this one early! The line should climb all day before tipoff.

Here's a game to wait on as long as possible:

Hofstra +11 over St Johns:

Superbook has an excellent writeup on this game as it is a huge rivalry between schools. I too expect this line to climb during the day but the winning side will be Hofstra as they are the much better shooting team. Should be a close game and one that Hofstra can win.

 

[yak merchant]

NB,

Haven't done my due diligence yet, but the Salukis got my attention when I first saw the lines also. Will give my computer an extra cup of coffee in the morning and see what it says. Good luck today.

 

[jderrida]

Nickleback:

I agree that I know very little about S. ILL. How well do they gaurd the 3, and what is their FT%. On the other-hand I do know about CS Northridge, they are at the bottom of every statistical category. But, I think that it's important to remember that it is finals time in college and the home team will average about 10-15 more attempts per game, but the # does look inticing....JD

 

[topspinner]

Nickel, I would be careful on So. Illinois play. Kind of reminds me of the Kent play from yesterday. I am showing line opened at 10 moved down to 8.5 and the public is all over So. Illinois at a rate of 75%. Someone knows something that I am missing. My numbers show the Salukis by 21. I think i am going to make a small play on the first half. No way would I touch the whole game.

 

[bosco]

NB,

Hofstra +6 in the FH looks strong. Any opinions?

GL Today

bosco

 

[Nickelback]

I knew the immediate reaction to the South Illinois' line would be that its a "trap" or its "too fishy" but I still love this line. . . btw its coming down so I'll go ahead and wait for a while to see where this line is going.

As far as the Hofstra line, its going up as projected. For me, I'll pass on the first half line because I like the potential backdoor cover for the game line if St Johns happens to get out and take control early.

 

[yak merchant]

Crunched the numbers and S.Ill definitely has the advantage in most categories, had to lay off due to the fact CS Northridge has an advantage in one of the statistics I don't like to bet against. Hope you cash.

 

[Nickelback]

yak,

What is that one statistic????

 

[Craiger]

723----07:00 PM-----------------------------
S. ILLINOIS 8 9/8?/7?/7
CAL ST.NO.RIDGE
--------------------------------------------
This line keeps moving-->this taken at 3:00 at scoresandodds.com / CalSNR's first home game after 4 straight road losses. Horrible FG% at 37% for Cal while Salukis clipping at 44% and oh those 3's going at a 39%clip. I see Salukis keeping this on a 10-15 point lead all game. WIll see if she drops some more. Love the pick Nickelback!

 

[yak merchant]

Kind of hard to explain, but it correlates to a teams ability score and defend off the dribble. More or less Shooting Percentage + (1 - (assists/no. of buckets)). Then I adjust for strength of schedule in this category. Sometimes it means nothing, but in most games when a big favorite almost gets beat, this is the only statistic the underdog has an advantage in.

 

[Nickelback]

Nice 2nd half run by Southern Illinois to get the win and cover for us! Makes up the 1 point ATS loss by Hofstra and then some!

Congrats to those on the Salukis!

 

[yak merchant]

Nice call.