Two Plays to Consider (Wed.)

[Nolan Dalla]

I'm not sure the webpage has been updated, so I want to make sure these plays are posted for your consideration before the start of tonight's games:

CHARLOTTE -11 versus CLEVELAND
Comments: Cavs come into this game following a terrible season opener last night versus mediocre Boston, and now must play Charlotte, clearly one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Hornets lost to Milwuakee (in seven games) in the semi-finals last year and have actually improved in the off-season. They've picked up Augmon, Traylor, and Bullard -- Traylor came from Cleveland after playing 70 games with Cavs last season. What was troubling about the Cavs' performance last night was seeing how poorly motivated the team appeared in their home opener. Cavs were down my 21 points in the middle of the second quarter! They lost by 19, only because Celtics played the bench in the fourth quarter (Celts could have won by 30). Charlotte has won FIVE straight at home in this series. Hornets have the better team, by far. They are more rested after Cavs played last night. Hornets also get the huge emotional edge of a home openner and an exciting season ahead. Look for Hornets to dominate this game and win by double-digits. Lay the chalk, which Hornet will easily overcome with any kind of decent effort.

Toronto/Miami OVER 178
Comments: Although I prefer UNDERs early in the season, we are getting lots of value here as oddsmakers have posted an "old" total without taking "new" developments into account. Miami has undergone drastic off-season changes, getting rid of the veteran deadwood (Mason, Majerely, McLean) and have brought in young fresh talent designed to open up the offense and create a better inside game. Heat get a healthy Alonzo Mourning back this season -- who is now fully recovered. They also start Brian Grant who averaged 15 PPG last season (career high). Miami is a new team, which should score MORE points this season, while at the same time allowing more points on defense. Toronto opened the season with a 199 point total in Orlando last night, but allowed 114 -- which indicates Miami could score points versus a team not noted for its defense. Raptors also had a miserble game on offense, yet still produced 85 points, even though star Vince Carter made only 2 baskets. Carter was injured in the game but should be back healthy tonight. In four games last season for Raptors, Carter averaged 28 PPG last season. many bettors are thinking this is one of Pat Riley's old defensive teams from a few years ago -- while the fact is they have addede more offense, and are playing versus a team that should rebound with a fair amount of points tonight. This is a contrarian play against the public's misperceptions. BEST BET.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Tito]

The one stat about the Cav's that is glaring to me is that they played at home yesterday and Boston had 31 Free Throw attempts to the Cav's 10. The Cavs have no D and they are playing one of the better defensive teams in the Eastern Conference. Nolan, you are right on with your analysis.

------------------
Tito

The quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket!

 

[Innavation]

Although your point of view is interesting--------i have to disagree------- yes the heat have added more offense this year but---Riley knows that the Raptors want to get out and run-------He also know that if the game is in the 90's to 100 than his team is at a disadvantage!!!! Riley does not want to run and with ZO in the middle----he changes many shots!!!!!!! Toronto prone to turnover---leads to less pts!!

 

[dr. freeze]

Inna -- do some research.....Riles wants to run this year.......

He seemed to want to run with Jabbar in the middle didn't he? Blocked shots will help lead the fast break as well......

 

[NJO]

2 points from Nolan's post I disagree with, related to Charlotte:

1)"... and have actually improved in the off-season. They've picked up Augmon, Traylor, and Bullard"

Traylor is a fat tub of goo who couldn't get playing time in Milwaukee when they were bad. I don't see his pickup as worth anything. And Augmon is well on his way to being done, as he looked beat down and dead at the end of last year. Bullard is a positive pickup.

2) "Hornets also get the huge emotional edge of a home opener"

This is in a city who covered up their upper deck in their arena until game 6 of the Eastern semis, and a city who has continued to vote down spending to buy a new arena and seemingly can't wait to get rid of the Hornets and their owner Shinn. I don't see that as any emotional edge.

Nolan, I greatly appreciate your work on here, but I can't agree with those points.

Good luck tonight.

 

[west coast guru]

Nolan nice work on the heat total! I was going to play the under until I saw your play. Good insight

 

[Nolan Dalla]

NJO:

I didn't realize Charlotte was so lackluster in terms of fan support for this team. I noticed the attendance figure for the opener was only 9,000 which is stunning for any NBA home opener. Excellent retort to my points and I thank you for bringing them to my attention.

Nolan Dalla