NFL THANKSGIVING DAY GAMES:
Detroit +7 vs. Green Bay
If RB James Stewart starts for Lions today, I think they'll pull off an upset. Stewart would give the Lions a much needed running threat to counter their passing game -- which is keeping them competitive in every contest. QB Charlie Batch threw a whopping 62 passes last week and the Lions put up 38 points. Trouble is -- they abandoned the run early because it proved to be so ineffective. Detroit desperately needs a RB. If Packers are forced to respect the run, Lions passing attack should produce points and keep the Green Bay's defense off-balance. Detroit may be 0-9 SU, but keep in mind they have played respectably since the 35-0 massacre on MNF seven weeks ago. In fact, Lions have lost games since by the following margins of just -- 5, 3, 4, 8, 3, and 7 points. Now, they play at home versus their division rivals -- the perfect spot to salvage a win. The key here is that both teams have only three days to prepare. In a regular NFL week, I would probably not play a winless team to upset the division leader. But several intangibles point to a close game today, which makes me believe taking the points is the smart play. Lions have major defensive weaknesses, of course, but this is offset by the loss of Safety Leroy Butler (to injury) -- a huge loss for Green Bay. Add the fact that Packers have looked very average in the mid-season combined with the Packers' history of problems at Detroit (Lions have won 4 straight SU) and I think we have a live dog with the Lions getting a touchdown. PLAY DETROIT +7
Dallas/Denver UNDER 40
This is way too many points for two struggling offenses, coming in with short preparation time. Neither team has a serious deep passing threat (since Dallas lacks a QB and Denver lacks healthy WRs). Add that WR Rod Smith may be out this week, and this game should probably go UNDER. We should see lots of running from both teams -- especially Dallas which doesn't want to put the game in Ryan Leaf's hands. Dallas controlled the ball somewhat successfully last week, and sustained several time consuming drives. Denver's defensive weaknesses are offset by Ryan Leaf getting the start for Dallas. His wrist injury, lack of familiarity with the Dallas offense, and lack of leadership means Dallas is unlikely to score beyond it's 13 point average the last six weeks. In addition, Cowboys defense has played well -- and will be able to focus on stopping the run because Denver does not have healthy wideouts. This total should probably be in the 37 range. PLAY UNDER 40.
-- Nolan Dalla
[This message has been edited by Nolan Dalla (edited 11-22-2001).]
Detroit +7 vs. Green Bay
If RB James Stewart starts for Lions today, I think they'll pull off an upset. Stewart would give the Lions a much needed running threat to counter their passing game -- which is keeping them competitive in every contest. QB Charlie Batch threw a whopping 62 passes last week and the Lions put up 38 points. Trouble is -- they abandoned the run early because it proved to be so ineffective. Detroit desperately needs a RB. If Packers are forced to respect the run, Lions passing attack should produce points and keep the Green Bay's defense off-balance. Detroit may be 0-9 SU, but keep in mind they have played respectably since the 35-0 massacre on MNF seven weeks ago. In fact, Lions have lost games since by the following margins of just -- 5, 3, 4, 8, 3, and 7 points. Now, they play at home versus their division rivals -- the perfect spot to salvage a win. The key here is that both teams have only three days to prepare. In a regular NFL week, I would probably not play a winless team to upset the division leader. But several intangibles point to a close game today, which makes me believe taking the points is the smart play. Lions have major defensive weaknesses, of course, but this is offset by the loss of Safety Leroy Butler (to injury) -- a huge loss for Green Bay. Add the fact that Packers have looked very average in the mid-season combined with the Packers' history of problems at Detroit (Lions have won 4 straight SU) and I think we have a live dog with the Lions getting a touchdown. PLAY DETROIT +7
Dallas/Denver UNDER 40
This is way too many points for two struggling offenses, coming in with short preparation time. Neither team has a serious deep passing threat (since Dallas lacks a QB and Denver lacks healthy WRs). Add that WR Rod Smith may be out this week, and this game should probably go UNDER. We should see lots of running from both teams -- especially Dallas which doesn't want to put the game in Ryan Leaf's hands. Dallas controlled the ball somewhat successfully last week, and sustained several time consuming drives. Denver's defensive weaknesses are offset by Ryan Leaf getting the start for Dallas. His wrist injury, lack of familiarity with the Dallas offense, and lack of leadership means Dallas is unlikely to score beyond it's 13 point average the last six weeks. In addition, Cowboys defense has played well -- and will be able to focus on stopping the run because Denver does not have healthy wideouts. This total should probably be in the 37 range. PLAY UNDER 40.
-- Nolan Dalla
[This message has been edited by Nolan Dalla (edited 11-22-2001).]
