Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)
Phil Mickelson to win 10/1 @ BetFred ['Fred's Bonus Book' market]
Pinehurst No.2 is not a traditional U.S. Open venue, it's domed greens are not surrounded by deep rough, but shaved edges. With Dave Pelz estimating that, on average, there is only 28% of each green at Pinehurst No.2 that the player can hit and stay on the green, scrambling will be much more important this year than any previous year since 1999. It is also more forgiving off the tee than most U.S. Open venues. All of which points to the No.1 ranked player in terms of scrambling on the PGA Tour: Phil Mickelson. He finished 2nd in an epic head-to-head with Payne Stewart in 1999 and having finished 2nd twice in the last three years, it is enough proof that he can play under the more brutal U.S. Open conditions. He really should have won last year - he three-putted from four-feet on the penultimate hole when leading - but having already won a major (2004 Masters), he is should be able to finish in style this year.
Padraig Harrington to win 25/1 e.w. @ SkyBet and GolfingGods ['w/o Woods, Singh, Mickelson & Els' market]
While the late Payne Stewart and Phil Mickelson finished 1st and 2nd last time the U.S. Open was at Pinehurst No.2, it is just as notable that Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods both finished 3rd. Unlike the toughest U.S. Open which can throw up rogue contenders, there was a very high quality look to the leaderboard in 1999 and it is expected to be the same this year. That makes this market particularly attractive for backing players who have yet to win a major and are more prone to being placed than seizing the opportunity to win. And, of course, there is the necessity of a good short game. So who better than Harrington who ranks 1st in scrambling on the European Tour and won the Honda Classic in March. He didn't qualify for this event in 1999, but has played every other year since 1997, with a worst finish of 32nd since 1998 and three top-10 finishes in his last five U.S. Opens. Likely to be Europe's top player on this type of course.
Nick O'Hern to win 60/1 e.w. @ GolfingGods ['w/o Woods, Singh, Mickelson & Els' market]
Similar story here. A player who manages to get himself into contention on an almost weekly basis and frustrate anyone backing him each-way. In his last two PGA Tour events, he has finished 9th and 6th - and importantly, ranking 1st in scrambling - and in his last two European Tour events, he has finished 5th and 3rd (despite a third round 76). This will be his U.S. Open debut so an outright victory is certainly out of the equation, but he stands a very good chance of at least being placed in this type of market.
