U.S. Senior Open

Stanley

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Outright plays (2pts):

Peter Jacobsen to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
He has only played once since returning from hip surgery and that was in the Long Island Classic four weeks ago. He started with a 64 to be joint leader after the first round, but admitted that he felt tired over the final six holes and it showed over the weekend as he slipped back. He did enter the Senior British Open last week, but was a late withdrawal which suggests that he was targeting this event instead. There should be some adjustment in odds for a player returning from injury, but 33/1 is too high for a player who could dominate this Tour when fully recovered.

Jim Thorpe to win 33/1 e.w. @ Stan James and William Hill
Neither of the other two selections entered the Senior British Open so they coming off a two-week break and both were in great form beforehand. Thorpe won two of his of his last five events and even though his attacking play does not really suit U.S. Senior Open type courses, he has still finished in the top-30 in all five previous attempts. He was right in the thick of contention throughout the 2000 U.S. Senior Open and is playing well enough to do so again.

Jose Maria Canizares to win 100/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Did consider Mark James (22/1 Stan James) and Dana Quigley (66/1 Ladbrokes) for the final berth, but opted for a more speculative shot with Canizares. A regular outright selection up to two years ago, Canizares has signalled a return to form with a couple of top-10 finishes in the last two months, plus a runners-up finish in the last major, the Ford Senior Players Championship. Throw in a U.S. Senior Open record of five top-12 finishes in seven attempts and this price looks rather large. Would rather have place-only odds, but a place finish would still return a very healthy profit.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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72 holes @ 5dimes
Canizares -115 over Des Smith


In complete agreement of Stan's assessment on Canizares and will also ride with some place cheese (top 5)on him @ 5dimes as well as Leitzke
Canizares 15/1
Leitzke 6/1
 

Stanley

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72-hole plays (2pts unless stated):

Jay Haas to beat Craig Stadler -138 @ Bet365 [4pts]
Still a big difference between these two even though Stadler ranks 1st in scoring average on the Tour. Haas has finished ahead of him in all three common events this year and is still far too good for this Tour.
(also available at Expekt, SkyBet, Paddy Power and Five Dimes)

Peter Jacobsen to beat Jim Thorpe -114 @ Expekt
Siding with Jacobsen in this matchup between two of the outright selections. They should be evenly matched if Jacobsen is about 80% fit, but there is far more chance of him being fitter than this. Together with Haas and Stadler, Jacobsen represents the best opportunity for a number of years for the Champions Tour to remarket itself with very competitive household names.

Dana Quigley to beat Fuzzy Zoeller -110 @ SkyBet
Zoeller is cutting back on his schedule, which is quite the opposite to Quigley who makes to maintain his competitiveness. So with no top-10 finish in over three months, Zoeller doesn't look the player who won the Senior PGA Championship in 2002. Can depend on Quigley to keep trying his best whatever the week.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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got 3 dogs I like in 3rd rd today.@ 5 Dimes

08/01/04 JAY HAAS (3RD RND) +105 CRAIG STADLER (3RD RND)
08/01/04 PETER JACOBSEN (3RD RND) -103 TOM KITE (3RD RND)
08/01/04 D.A. WEIBRING (3RD RND) -103 MARK JAMES (3RD
 

Stanley

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Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +37.25pts

Jacobsen 1st
Thorpe 19th
Canizares 12th

What can I say? Jacobsen completes a treble of winners over four events this week at odds of 77,451/1!! It was always going to be tense with the seniors playing 36 holes on the final day and particularly from Jacobsen who has just recovered from hip surgery, but he held his nerve at the end when others failed. Almost got a place win with Canizares who had been around the top-5 all week, but being much older than the other leaders, bar Irwin, he looked exhausted by the end of the 4th round and he naturally slipped down the leaderboard. Still been a very memorable week!

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-1-0; +3.80pts

Haas/Stadler WON by 4
Jacobsen/Thorpe WON by 11
Quigley/Zoeller LOST by 6

Good profit on the matchups to add to a special week on the outrights.

Champions Tour ytd
Outrights: 14-42; +135.42pts
Matchups: 45-47; -24.10pts
 
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