U.S. Women's Open

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Juli Inkster to win 28/1 e.w. @ Stan James, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
To win a Major you need very good greens in regulation stats, a strong short game and experience. As a two-time champion (1999, 2002) fits the bill. Her GIR stats may be a little down this year, but they have been much improved of late, being over 65% in each of her last four starts and the result has been some improved finishing positions: she has finished in the top-6 in three of her last five starts. With Annika Sorenstam not so invincible this year and Grace Park injuring her back, Inkster's experience could prove to be the key again in this event.

Shi Hyun Ahn to win 50/1 e.w. available generally
Ahn does lack that experience as she only make her debut in a LPGA Tour event last year, which she won. It was the Nine Bridges Classic in South Korea and it enabled her play on the Tour this year which she has done rather impressively with four top-5 finishes in eleven starts. She ranks 3rd in greens in regulation on the Tour so despite her lack of experience, she should perform well around this course.

Yuri Fudoh to win 100/1 e.w. @ Five Dimes, Stan James, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
A big price for the star of Japanese ladies golf. She has been the winner in four of nine starts this year, finishing in the top-3 on a couple of other occasions. She has not been too daunted by this event either as she has finished in the top-20 in two of the last three years with putting being her only downfall. If she can master the greens this week, she certainly has the game and the experience to be a serious contender for this title.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Cristie Kerr to beat Carin Koch -200 @ Nordicbet
Short odds, plenty in Kerr's favour. She has finished ahead of Koch in each of the last four U.S. Women's Opens and leads her 8-2-0 h2h in 2004. Needing a 67% chance of victory to make this play profitable, the stats suggest a higher probability is in order.

Cristie Kerr to beat Mi-Hyun Kim -110 @ SkyBet
Similar head-to-head stats in this match. Kerr has finished ahead of Kim in four of the five U.S. Women's Opens that they have both contested and Kim has finished ahead of Kerr only three times in ten common events in 2004. Both in good form, but the American, who is coming off a victory two weeks ago, looks to have the edge.

Cristie Kerr to beat Michele Wie -114 @ Centrebet [4.5pts]
There are plenty of reasons to oppose Wie this week. There is the hype that creates a false price. There is the course setup common to USGA events that heavily penalise Wie's power game. And there is the gruelling six-day event - the U.S. Women?s Amateur Public Links - which finished on Sunday with Wie losing the 36-hole final by one hole. She played poorly and admitted to being tired. It was the same last year when she won the WAPL the week before the U.S. Women's Open and she finished 39th, shooting over-par in every round. Expecting the same this year as well, so will certainly side with the form player who has a 5-1-0 h2h record against Wie over the past 12 months.

Mi-Hyun Kim to beat Michelle Wie +100 @ Stan James [3pts]
Kim also finished ahead of Wie last year and is in comparable form to Kerr at the moment. So even though she might struggle to beat Kerr, she should still be good enough to beat Wie once again.

Karrie Webb to beat Michele Wie -130 @ Expekt
Webb actually finished behind Wie last year as she missed the cut for the second consecutive year. However, she is playing better at the moment, having won earlier this month and she is certainly a player who prospers in USGA course conditions as she showed when winning this title in 2000 and 2001.

Karrie Webb to beat Patricia Meunier-Lebouc -125 @ Stan James
Meunier-Lebouc secured her first top-10 finish last week since returning to the Tour nine weeks ago. It has been a difficult season so far with rustiness no longer a factor and this week will be a stern test on an inconsistent game. Have to side with the two-time champion here.

Karrie Webb to beat Rachel Teske -120[/]b @ SkyBet
Also siding with her against Teske whose game is also out-of-sorts. Just one top-10 finish in eleven LPGA Tour events in 2004 is a poor return for a player of Teske's abilities and doesn't compare well to Webb who has already won a title.

Michele Redman to beat Jung Yeon Lee -111 @ Stan James [3pts]
After a fast start to the season, Lee's form has dipped considerably over the past couple of months, withdrawing after an opening 77 in her last event. So with Redman in much better form - she has finished behind Lee only once in the last seven common events - and with a better record in this event, she deserves to be a strong favourite in this match.

 

[Stanley]

Further 72-hole matchup play (1.5pts):

Meg Mallon to beat Karen Stupples -130 @ Five Dimes
Adding one play from Five Dimes' late offerings. Stupples has scarcely missed a week's golf all season and fatigue may be a reason for her form dropping over the last couple of months with her best finish in her last seven events being 17th. It seems a very long time since he opened the year with a 2nd place finish in Australia and then won the opening event on the LPGA Tour. Mallon has paced herself much more slowly and approaches this event in much better form. She has finished ahead of Stupples in six of their last seven common events and looked destined for a better week at The Orchards.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Angela Stanford(75/1) e.w. @ 5dimes

GL

 

[lal2000]

I don't usually go in for the LPG tournaments but this one looked especially interesting and I thought I'd try my hand. Thanks to Stan for a few good pointers.


Outrights (? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5)

M Wie 33/1 Sporting Odds
Y Fudoh 100/1 Stan James
S H Ahn 50/1 Chandlers
P Creamer 80/1 Sporting Odds
M Mallon 66/1 Sporting Odds

Good Luck!

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - Final Result: 0-3; -4.50pts

Inkster 58th
Ahn 29th
Fudoh mc

At least Inkster had been in contention for the first two rounds. Not much else to cheer in this event.

Matchups - Final Result: 2-7-0; -13.91pts

Kerr/Koch LOST by 5
Kerr/Kim LOST by 3
Kerr/Wie LOST by 4
Kim/Wie LOST by 1
Webb/Wie LOST by 1
Webb/Meunier-Lebouc LOST by 1
Webb/Teske LOST by 2
Redman/Lee WON by 14
Mallon/Stupples WON by 17

Ouch! Lost a lot by opposing Wie, but all of the losses could have easily gone the other way. The worst-placed of all the selections was Kerr who still finished 27th. Could have been very different.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 11-34; +5.04pts
Matchups: 39-28; +21.49pts