UALR Trojans +23

JCoverS

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Arkansas-Little Rock will surely be in for a stern test tonight going into the raucous Gallagher-Iba Arena. However, I think this is just too many points for the Cowboys to cover this early in the season, especially against a formidable foe.

Yeah, that's right, I said formidable. This UALR squad is returning seven seniors from a team that won the East division of the Sun Belt last year. Steve Shields (2004 Sun Belt Conference Coach of the Year) has done a great job in taking over the program as it certainly looks to be on a major upswing. There is plenty of experienced and talented players on this team. Brandon Freeman can fill it up, they have a senior PG in Zach Graber, and a nice inside presence with senior Darius Eason, plus some serviceable role players. I honestly think this is a dangerous team that could hang with OSU throughout the game this evening.

Yes, Oklahoma State is absolutely loaded with thoroughbreds, and have been impressive in both exhibition games and the one win over Northwestern State (LA). On paper, they are certainly capable of covering this big number. That being said, this UALR team is leaps and bounds better than any team they have faced thus far. The loss of Tony Allen has not really shown up as much in the final scores yet for OSU, but taking a look at the boxscores you can see it. Even the coaches have stated that Tony Allen was the one guy on the Final Four team last year that almost single-handedly brought a high level of intensity to practices and games, especially on the defensive end. He was the leader of this team and brought so many intangibles to last year's Cowboys team. Thus far, turnovers are up from last year and rebounds are down. What I see is a lack of aggressiveness at times on defense and less effort on the boards. Those qualities don't make for covering 20+ point spreads against decent teams. If the Cowboys are lax on D tonight, the Trojans have enough weapons to make them pay.

Thus far, the offense has shined for OSU this season, but Eddie is still searching for someone to step up and be that necessary inside presence. Thus far that area is still a concern. I think someone of Darius Eason's ability and experience may be able to exploit that tonight. Lots of lineup shuffling is to be expected tonight, too, as the Suttons search for the best lineup to put out on the floor. All the tinkering is tough to make for any sense of continuity.

All in all, I just really feel good about UALR tonight, even playing them +12.5 in the first half. Hopefully, things will play out like I envision. We shall see.

Good Luck to All,

-JC
 

JCoverS

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I'm gonna have to go ahead and file that one under BAD BEAT. Sorry fellas, but I truly feel I was on the right side of this one. Just extremely unlucky at the end. Cowboys had absolutely no business covering this number. The first and only time they were on top of this number the entire game was with freakin' 5 seconds left in the game! I attended this game and got the pleasure (?) of watching the sickening ending in person. For any Trojan backers who don't know how the last minute of the game unfolded to lose the cover, you are better off not knowing. Needless to say, sometimes crazy things happen at the end of games that affect our wagers. I just hope this isn't a sign of things to come for my hoops season. The only saving grace for me was that I also played the Trojans in the first half and that one was an easy cover, with them leading much of the 1st half and go into HT only one point down. Here are some of my random thoughts from tonight. Maybe some of you could throw them into your handicapping arsenal.

Oklahoma State: were not aggressive defensively in the 1st half. Very lethargic. Had difficulty attacking UALR's zone. Not many bright spots from the 1st half. Really turned up defensive intensity in the 2nd. Red hot shooting in the 2nd, something like 70%. John Lucas absolutely schooled UALR's PG the entire 2nd half. Lucas made a concerted effort to score and Graber could not guard him. Three 3's in a row over the top of the guy. OSU's major athleticism and depth really wore down the Trojans. I thought that might happen, but not enought to lose the cover. Cowboys have MAJOR spurtability potential with their gifted athletes. Joey Graham is an absolute stud. This team is super loaded with talent. Freshman JamesOn Curry continues to impress. Very disciplined for his age and seems to be really taking Sutton's coaching to heart. He will be a special player for OSU. Also, Frans Steyn is beginning to make an impact on the interior. 7'2'' kid from South Africa. He was a major "project" of Eddie's. Had never played a single minute of organized basketball prior to stepping onto OSU's campus. They literally have taught him from square one how to play the game of basketball. He was a rugby player and gifted athlete, so they saw potential. He isn't quite there yet, but man has this guy made major strides. Last year, he still looked lost on the court, but this year he looks to be gaining some actual basketball instincts. You will hear alot about him this year as he will get major minutes for the Cowboys.

UALR: Very impressive 1st half from the Trojans. Watch out for this team in the Sun Belt! Even after the meltdown in the 2nd half tonight, I still came away pretty impressed with this squad. The score was not indicative of how well they played. I told you that Freeman could stroke it and he didn't disappoint. Had 16 at the half, ended with 25 or so. Eason was not as much of a factor as I was hoping. Graber runs the offense well, but has limited offensive skills. Also, really struggled with Lucas' quickness on the defensive end. Other players who looked good tonight were: Zack Wright, he could really create his own shot and slash to the goal with success. Also, guy with last name of Willis, a smooth shooting lefty that reminded me alot of a younger "Mad Dog" Robinson only lefty, not quite the same game, but similar build anyway.

Once again, sorry about the outcome of this play. We will get 'em next time, though.

-JC
 

gman2

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jcovers:

always appreciate your perspectives. you make cogent arguments for all your plays and you add a lot of good stuff to the hoops forum. long season, so hopefully you get on the right end of a flukie break.
 
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