UBS Hong Kong Open
- Thread starter lostinamerica
- Start date
Round 1 plays (6pts unless stated):
Padraig Harrington to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ SkyBet, Bet365, William Hill and Boyle Sports]
Casey finished ahead of Harrington last week in Singapore, but given that it was only the second time that has done that in 2012 and the first time that he has shot a lower rd1 score in 2012, he shouldn't be favourite to repeat the feat this week. The other factor is that Casey has only played in this event once previously - 2005 when he missed the cut - whereas Harrington is a former winner (2003) and also has a runners-up finish on this course.
Soren Kjeldsen to beat Prom Meesawat -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James and BetVictor]
Missed cuts in his last three visits suggest that this is not a particularly good course for Mesawat - he has finished ahead of Kjeldsen just once in the six times that they have both played in this event, so I'll back the Dane who has a good record in China.
Marcus Fraser to beat Tom Lewis -163 @ Stan James [also available @ BetVictor] [4pts]
Lewis is another who has disappointed after a breakthrough year in 2011. He has missed 12 of his last 16 cuts with his best finish over that period being 35th and he has averaged 74.0 over that period in the 1st round. Fraser dominates this matchup 11-3-0 in 2012 and has finishes of 7th, 34th, 10th and 11th in his previous starts at Hong Kong. This really shouldn't be close.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fraser tb Phadungsil -157; McIlroy tb Manassero -184]
Padraig Harrington to beat Paul Casey +100 @ Paddy Power [also available @ SkyBet, Bet365, William Hill and Boyle Sports]
Casey finished ahead of Harrington last week in Singapore, but given that it was only the second time that has done that in 2012 and the first time that he has shot a lower rd1 score in 2012, he shouldn't be favourite to repeat the feat this week. The other factor is that Casey has only played in this event once previously - 2005 when he missed the cut - whereas Harrington is a former winner (2003) and also has a runners-up finish on this course.
Soren Kjeldsen to beat Prom Meesawat -113 @ Pinnacle [also available @ Stan James and BetVictor]
Missed cuts in his last three visits suggest that this is not a particularly good course for Mesawat - he has finished ahead of Kjeldsen just once in the six times that they have both played in this event, so I'll back the Dane who has a good record in China.
Marcus Fraser to beat Tom Lewis -163 @ Stan James [also available @ BetVictor] [4pts]
Lewis is another who has disappointed after a breakthrough year in 2011. He has missed 12 of his last 16 cuts with his best finish over that period being 35th and he has averaged 74.0 over that period in the 1st round. Fraser dominates this matchup 11-3-0 in 2012 and has finishes of 7th, 34th, 10th and 11th in his previous starts at Hong Kong. This really shouldn't be close.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Fraser tb Phadungsil -157; McIlroy tb Manassero -184]
Round 3 plays (2pts):
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Fredrik Andersson Hed -110 @ SkyBet [available generally]
Opposing Andersson Hed who lies 2nd after 36 holes. In the last nine years, he has broken 70 in the 3rd round just once when he started it in the top-5and he has broken 70 in the 4th round just once when he has started that round in the top-5. He was in a similar position last month in the Portugal Masters - 4th at the cut - but he finished 27th. So, it is easy to oppose him with MAJ who is a double-winner of this event and also starts the weekend in 2nd place.
Marcus Fraser to beat Fredrik Andersson Hed -110 @ Stan James
Fraser starts the weekend further back in 8th place, but given his record on this course - 7th, 34th, 10th, 11th - he looks much more likely to keep his place in the top-10 than the Swede who has made the cut just once previously on this course.
Matt Kuchar to beat Lorenzo Gagli -188 @ BetVictor [available generally]
Just too much of a gulf between these two. Not only does Gagli have the pressure of being paired with a player in the top-20 in the World Rankings (he ranks 240th), but he also has the pressure of maintaining his form so he can retain his Tour Card for 2013 - he currently ranks 107th in the Race to Dubai and only the top-115 keep their Cards. He should be safe, but this is still a pressure week and he has missed the last two cuts under this pressure.
Miguel Angel Jimenez to beat Fredrik Andersson Hed -110 @ SkyBet [available generally]
Opposing Andersson Hed who lies 2nd after 36 holes. In the last nine years, he has broken 70 in the 3rd round just once when he started it in the top-5and he has broken 70 in the 4th round just once when he has started that round in the top-5. He was in a similar position last month in the Portugal Masters - 4th at the cut - but he finished 27th. So, it is easy to oppose him with MAJ who is a double-winner of this event and also starts the weekend in 2nd place.
Marcus Fraser to beat Fredrik Andersson Hed -110 @ Stan James
Fraser starts the weekend further back in 8th place, but given his record on this course - 7th, 34th, 10th, 11th - he looks much more likely to keep his place in the top-10 than the Swede who has made the cut just once previously on this course.
Matt Kuchar to beat Lorenzo Gagli -188 @ BetVictor [available generally]
Just too much of a gulf between these two. Not only does Gagli have the pressure of being paired with a player in the top-20 in the World Rankings (he ranks 240th), but he also has the pressure of maintaining his form so he can retain his Tour Card for 2013 - he currently ranks 107th in the Race to Dubai and only the top-115 keep their Cards. He should be safe, but this is still a pressure week and he has missed the last two cuts under this pressure.
Round 4 plays (2pts):
Matt Kuchar to beat Paul Lawrie -155 @ 5Dimes
Not quite the gulf between Kuchar and Lawrie as between him and Gagli, but I expect Kuch to maintain the form that he showed today as he moved to 8th place and just four shots off the lead. He has showed that he is a very good player when in contention on the PGA Tour and, now that he has become increasingly accustomed to Hong Kong, he should be again tomorrow.
Matt Kuchar to beat Pablo Larrazabal -163 @ Pinnacle and Paddy Power [available generally]
Opposing Larrazabal who shot 65 today to get into the top-10, but given that his best finish in the last two months is 50th, confidence may be somewhat fragile. Also being in the same pairing at Kuch should add to the pressure on him.
Andres Hansen to beat Raphael Jacquelin +110 @ Stan James [available generally]
Jacquelin shot the low round of the day in rd3 and that is a standard go-against angle in the next round. Hansen is always a good player to back in matchups and is currently on course to secure his fifth top-10 finish in his last eight starts.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Hansen tb Larrazabal -150; Jimenez tb Campbell -144]
Matt Kuchar to beat Paul Lawrie -155 @ 5Dimes
Not quite the gulf between Kuchar and Lawrie as between him and Gagli, but I expect Kuch to maintain the form that he showed today as he moved to 8th place and just four shots off the lead. He has showed that he is a very good player when in contention on the PGA Tour and, now that he has become increasingly accustomed to Hong Kong, he should be again tomorrow.
Matt Kuchar to beat Pablo Larrazabal -163 @ Pinnacle and Paddy Power [available generally]
Opposing Larrazabal who shot 65 today to get into the top-10, but given that his best finish in the last two months is 50th, confidence may be somewhat fragile. Also being in the same pairing at Kuch should add to the pressure on him.
Andres Hansen to beat Raphael Jacquelin +110 @ Stan James [available generally]
Jacquelin shot the low round of the day in rd3 and that is a standard go-against angle in the next round. Hansen is always a good player to back in matchups and is currently on course to secure his fifth top-10 finish in his last eight starts.
[unofficial rd4 system plays: Hansen tb Larrazabal -150; Jimenez tb Campbell -144]
