UCLA-OKIE STATE (BIG PLAY)

[releasedahounds]

*****This is posted in another thread, just wanted to get some input from anyone that has the other side. What's the West Coast take on this one? Or does anyone out there even know UCLA exists now that USC is rolling again? LOL!*****

I live in OKC, and LOVE the UCLA play this week. Okie St. lost its starting QB to baseball draft, its best WR ever to the 1st round of the NFL draft, and its best RB in 10 years to the NFL as well. They lost the guy that would have started for them as a true freshman at QB, and will now start an athletic, but completely inept passer, that is a RS-Frosh. They have a solid O-Line and some good depth at RB, so should be able to run the ball a little. What they cannot do anymore is hit the home-run play with the RB or any of the existing WRs. They will try to use the TE a lot, but UCLA's backers should be up to the task. The OSU QB went 3 of 14 with 3 picks in his first scrimmage.

OSU will be good on D in the secondary, but susceptible to the run up front. They have a gamebreaker at DB/PR/KR (Williams) but as long as he is contained, I CANNOT SEE THEM WINNING ON THE ROAD HERE.

I haven't seen a total yet and was wondering if anyone had a good place to get total lines early in the week for college? Either way, if it is anything like 45 and up, BANG THE SHITE OUT OF THE UNDER.

I am also making a MUCH LARGER THAN NORMAL play on the Bruins for early season football. OSU just doesn't have the personnel to do the things they have become quasi-successful doing on offense the last couple years (deep balls and toss sweeps).

 

[releasedahounds]

still looking for that total to post on my serivce by the way......anyone got it yet?

 

[bbk]

Be very careful on this play; looks like a trap; opened at UCLA 2 1/2 and now it a pick; expect UCLA to possibly be a dog by game time;when the line moves like that that early someone knows something; yes OSU lost Fileds, Woods and Bell. but still return ALOT of very good players; including almost their entire o line with morency (who in my mind could be better than bell); they bring in woods as the qb who is very dynamic and will use the run more than the pass which is good when you are a 1st time starter and still have some good wr's; osu also returns all their secondary and lb's with minimal loses to their d line; OSU is a running team which bodes well on the road; OSU has a huge edge on Special teams and Coaching; This is a tossup in my opinion and is a complete no play but would play OSU as UCLA is not a very good team at all and expect OSU to sqeak out a win as their secondary is much improved which has been their downfall the last few years. Good luck on your play but for me its either OSU or no play.

 

[pt1gard]

ucla lost its last 6 games of 2003, however, history says Big 8/12 teams venturing to pac-10sville have found many a briar patch

gl, gregg

 

[johnnyb.]

haven't seen a bigger ucla fan on this site than me, so hear goes! it being early in the season, theres no sense in laying the wood to any team.
bruins have injury problems on d-line, with very little expiriencefrom the back-ups. ok st. has a big o-line with lotsa of expirience. thats my biggest concern...
i'll stay play bruins at home in a pickem game vs. a 2nd tier big 12 team breaking in a rs frosh at qb.
good luck and feel free to email me with any questions...

 

[oldschoolcapper]

I'm laying off this game, but I feel Ok. State has a big advantage in coaching. Gameplans are huge in season openers between teams that aren't familiar with each other.

best of luck with your play.


osc

 

[bgold13]

i love ucla in this one... i think if perry is granted eligibility for by game time ucla will be even more loaded. Olson has grasped the offense and they should be ready to challenge okst strong secondary

 

[releasedahounds]

I know that Williams is a solid DB, but just b/c they have everyone back doesn't mean that is a good thing in the secondary. These guys have given up a lot of yards and points their entire careers. Here are some passing yards stats by other QBs in the last few games against these same guys last year:

MISS: 250+
Baylor: 220
Kansas (backup): 200
TX (running QB): 200

I have seen this set of DBs play. I think a lot of people give too much credit to returning players. Members of these existing teams played 2 years ago and UCLA beat OSU by 2 TDs in Stillwater.

I think the O/U is around 50, the UNDER is the best play on this game, but I think it is highly unlikely that the OSU team in the state of uncertainty it is in can go to the left coast and beat UCLA in the Rose Bowl. UCLA is a large play for me, of course that's just my opinion, I could be wrong!

PS- Morency and Shaw (the starting RBs) are both currently listed as questionable, and neither will be 100%. Morency will not be better than Bell, ever. 1/2 the speed and a fumbler, not a hard worker from reputation.

4 units on the UNDER (47 and up)
2 units on UCLA

 

[releasedahounds]

JohnnyB- your email is blocked, couldn't get it. If you want to email me, write me at


[edit out email:admin
please do not post email addresses on the forum]

Post your email, I have a couple other ?s

 

[bbk]

Release,

Not sure what you are talking about as far as 1/2 the speed of bell; bell definitely is very explosive but Morency is a different type of back; if you want to compare backs i think morency 6.8 yard per carry will rank up there with anyone and remember Bell was benched due to fumbling and cost OSU the NEB game last year; so your information is a little bit distorted. I dont really see much uncertainty other than they are starting a new qb but bring back 85% of their team and considering they have a huge coaching edge; i think the edge goes to OSU and i am not much into comparing teams 2 years ago; these are 2 totally different teams; and as far as OSU going on the road; didnt OSU with a freshman QB go on the road to beat a pretty decent OU team on the road on its way to the NC game a few years ago; OU's only home loss in its last 30 or 40 home games??? Like I said its more of a noplay for me but I would tread lightly. The under looks decent though.

 

[gardenweasel]

like the under at 47...on grass....inexperienced qb on okie st.....decent secondary`s...even though okie st got torched more than once last year.......two strong ground games...always expect the "d" to be a little ahead of the "o`s" in the first ballgame...

g.l.

 

[Scott4USC]

I have to agree with BBK but I think I might be betting on OSU. UCLA has ton of talent but I doubt they will be prepared for the opening game of the season.

OSU has an experienced OL and talented running backs. "Some" think Morency could be better than Bell. UCLA lost their 1st and 2nd string DL from last year. Last year UCLA had one of the best DL in the country but this year they will struggle at that position. Who wouldn't if you lose your whole 2-deep.

Now this is where things get interesting. I have read from UCLA fans that the DL has been playing very well against the UCLA OL. UCLA returns their whole OL from last year but these guys SUCKED LY! So how much better could they be? Although UCLA hired an excellent OL and S&C coaches. Everyone says UCLA will have a good OL this year but if that DL has been playing good against them in practices they cannot be that good. I am willing to wager that the UCLA DL is not very good.

So this is a classic game I love betting on. OSU should win the battle in the trenches and OSU loves to pound the ball. UCLA has a lot of weapons on offense but there QB is average at best and I am not so high on their OL.

As BBK said, OSU has the coaching advantage and special teams advantage. OSU should win this game and the Rose Bowl is not a very hostile road environment.

I also like the fact that the OSU QB is a mobile QB. As you saw in the V-Tech game, a mobile QB can make a very good defense look bad. How many times did USC have perfect coverage and Randall just tucked it an ran. Well I expect that to happen a lot in this game especially since this OSU QB is young. Younger QB's tend to run more which I think is a bonus because it is difficult to stop a mobile QB. Do you think this inexperienced DL is going to stay in there rushing lanes? Stay home? I DO NOT THINK SO! Should be easy for the OSU QB to tuck the ball away and run.

OSU will POUND, POUND, and POUND the ball. OSU coach loves to do that and that is how they will win this game. Perfect scenario! A team who loves to pound the ball vs a team who is starting a brand new DL.

 

[johnnyb.]

releasedahounds,
your email is blocked too, i checked mine on the control panel and i have that function as available to members...
i wrote to madjack asking him to pass my along to you...
go bruins.

 

[releasedahounds]

Do you think that Morency's flat numbers are supposed to tell me that he is a better back than Tatum Bell? How does the fact that the ONE game the coaches benched Tatum Bell (2 carries for 9 yards) was NOT the game following the NU game, but rather the 4th game of the season. MORENCY averaged over 10 yards a carry against LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (18 carries for 189 yards). The rest of the time, he was in for garabage duty. You have got to be an Okie State fan. There is simply no way that Morency can produce the big plays and productivity that Bell could, ESPECIALLY WHEN HE IS NOT 100%! I agree that OSU will be able to run the ball with SOME success in this game, but I feel they have NO gamebreakers left on offense, and their D will not be able to stop UCLA consistently enough to get the W. This is a GREAT GAME TO BET, I like UCLA at home against one of the worst QBs they will face this season that has never taken a snap. I LOVE THE UNDER IN A GAME THAT SHOULD SEE LITTLE SUSTAINED SUCESS BY EITHER TEAM ON OFFENSE.

 

[JCoverS]

HAHA! Unbelievable....the guy hasn't even taken a snap and he's already the worst QB they will face this year. Are you clairvoyant?

I guess we shall see how it all plays out on the field this Saturday. My feeling is that this game will be won in the trenches and it is hard to ignore the glaring advantage in strength, size, and experience that OSU holds with their OL vs. the Bruin D-line.

Solid protection and picking up chunks of yardage in the running game tends to make things much easier on a RS-Frosh QB. Even if he is a little green, I am not expecting Donovan Woods to HAVE to do much out of the ordinary for this OSU team to still have success. Of course, nobody has a crystal ball....this is just my humble opinion.

Good Luck to All,

-JC

 

[johnnyb.]

calling my shot!
ucla 24
osu 21
bruins have difference makers on both sides of the ball, cowboys are re-loading this year...

 

[tulah]

I'll be at the game cheering 4 ucla. the total is my secure bet , definitely UNDER

 

[Makingendsmeet]

release,

I have been lurking for awhile and am going to have to post here, you are off on Bell/Morency. Bell was benched in the forth game of the season against SMU for FUMBLING on his 2nd carry of the game. That is why he had 2 carries. Do not clutter up threads with INCORRECT info. Bell's only knock was that he is a fumbler...So I think you are confusing the two on who is percieved as a fumbler. Morency is not a fumbler and to my knowledge has only one fumble in his career. Again get good info or do not post crap...

You have to be an OU fan who hates OSU. Morency will be a very good back who is only a little slower than Bell in speed, but much more shifty and powerful. He looked very good last year against some weaker teams (Kansas, Baylor, SMU) so we will see how he does...He may not have the big plays, BUT if can stay healthy will be very very productive. take that to the bank.

Again get good info...Morency is not listed as questionable and niether is Shaw. Morency is listed as the starter with Shaw listed as 3rd string back, behind Greg Jones. Morency has been a little banged up and has had problems staying healthy but is 100% going into this game per OSU runnng back coach and Morency himself. Shaw has had a deep thigh bruise and did practice full contact at the last practice, but again is the 3rd string back. GET CORRECT INFO BEFORE POSTING GARBAGE.


The worst QB they will face??? Another reason you have to be an OU fan who hates OSU...I will not even comment on this biased crap. Bring good info or nothing. Woods was very highly recuited out of HS and has not played a game so I am not sure how he can be the worst QB thay will face????

Good luck with your bet, but it seems you are stretching to justify a big play on UCLA. The under looks good...Good luck.

 

[releasedahounds]

OK, just a few things to clear up.

I misread an earlier post that I thought was implying that Morency came in as a result of Bell's performance in the NU game. I know he was benched b/c of fumbling, I was just trying to point out that it was NOT from fumbling in the NU game specifically.

IE2002 posted an injury report on MONDAY that listed both Morency and Shaw as questionable. I have not followed it day to day and edited my post.

If you think that Morency is the same type or better running threat that Bell, that is your opinion and you are entitled to it. I have never denied that OSU will have to rely HEAVILY on the run game, and will have some success. I only stated that I don't think they can win the game on this alone, and that NONE of their existing RBs present the dynamic run/receiving threat that Bell did. Time will tell. People are allowed to disagree and I guess that is why this line is see-sawing.

I am not an OU or OSU fan, and only live on OKLAHOMA after being raised in Texas. I POST ABOUT THESE 2 TEAMS BECAUSE THESE ARE THE TEAMS I HEAR THE MOST LOCAL INFO ABOUT HERE. That is one of the most beneficial aspects of this site in my opinion.

Like I said UNDER is the play. If you are questioning my reasoning that a RS-Frosh QB that by ALL accounts has been FAR less than impressive this fall and had already been beaten out in the Spring by another who is now hurt will be a very weak link at QB, whatever. The largest crowd this kid has ever played in front of was probably in his HS State Title game a few years back. You seem to admit that they cannot rely on him, but refute the fact (which I overemphasized) that he is an obvious, and potentially VERY SERIOUS liability on the road in this spot.

BIG PLAY stands on the UNDER, the replies have tempered my belief in UCLA and that is why I post on these forums. To all that put their .02 in, a sincere thanks.

GL with all the plays,
The Hounds

 

[johnnyb.]

I HATE STARTING NEW THREADS TO REPEAT THE SAME SUBJECT, SO I HOPE "HOUNDS" DON'T MIND ME USING IT...
i found this on the bruin fans forum, thought it be interesting to us cappers. it was a luncheon for boosters and it had ucla coach karl dorrell and players being candid about the o.s.u. game...

The breakfast had over 100 people in attendance, (Don?t argue with me, I saw what the t the club paid the hotel). In attendance from the program were Head Coach Karl Dorrell, Craig Bragg, Steve Vieira, Spencer Havner, and Ben Emanuel.

The program got started with player interviews. Steve Vieira talked about the difference between playing guard and tackle and how he likes his new/old position better. Bragged was asked about the OK State Corners and said they are fast but small. I don?t know why, but he smiled real big when he said they were small. Then Vieira talking about the OK State defensive line said that the ends are real good, but the inside guys are big and slow. He seemed to like that. Bragg was asked what the big difference is between this year and last year. He said the difference is that ?We all don?t have blank stares on our faces in the huddle now?. It was pretty funny. You had to be there. Spencer Havner came up next with Ben Emanuel. Havner has been elected a Team Captain,
Havner talked about Drew Olson. He said that as a defensive player, he has seen how Olson has improved. He said that he tried real hard to ?Get Him? (Interceptions), and Olson has improved too much. He said he was only able to get Olson once this year. Havner also said that the players really like it when the fans are loud and he hoped that we could be real loud tomorrow.
Now, about Dorrell?s comments; Dorrell seem more at ease. He was joking and having a good time. Dorrell made some comments about the QB of OK State and said that he is not a very accurate passer and they are going to put our guys in a position to intercept his passes. He got this real big smile and said that they have some packages prepared for him.
He made some interesting comments. He said that OK State ?Won?t know what hit them? He was hinting at a high scoring game.
HOPE IT WAS INSITEFUL TO MINDSET OF BRUIN TEAM...
RECEIVER TAB PERRY WAS RE-INSTATED BY NCAA FOR THE GAME, THIS GIVES UCLA THE MOST GIFTED SET RECEIVERS IN THE PAC-10.