UFC 102 preview & picks: Couture has home-field advantage
Home-field advantage is something football bettors lean on when making their weekly picks.
But this Saturday night, mixed martial arts fans can also capitalize on that handicapping tool when Randy Couture faces Ant?nio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 102. Couture will climb into the octagon in front of a home-town crowd at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon.
?We worked hard to get the sport sanctioned in the state of Oregon and now to see the biggest show headed there is pretty exciting,? Couture told reporters this week.
The MMA veteran is a native of the Pacific Northwest and calls Oregon his second home. He?s established his famous training camp, Team Quest, in Oregon and lived in Corvallis for 14 years while working as a wrestling coach at Oregon State University.
According to renowned MMA linesmaker Joey Oddessa, that home-field advantage is a big reason why the former UFC heavyweight champion is a -175 favorite against Nogueira (+145). He believes that, outside of the motivational factor, Couture will benefit from local judges trying to score Saturday?s bout.
?With the inconsistency of the judges in both the UFC and WEC (World Extreme Cagefighting) and how they interpret the action in the cage, you would expect Oregon officials to be more inclined to score close rounds to the crowd favorite.?
Oddessa has seen this trend in MMA and boxing before, most recently in last week?s light welterweight title bout between Paul Malignaggi and Juan Diaz. Malignaggi appeared to win the late rounds in an even fight but when the decision went to the judges? scorecards, Diaz was given the victory in front of his hometown of Houston, Texas.
That advantage is a nice insurance policy for anyone forking out the extra money to play Couture. However, the 46-year-old fighter is a legit favorite even without the friendly fans.
He?s coming off a devastating loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91 but has shown a tendency to rebound from tough defeats. Couture was knocked out by Chuck Liddell back in 2006 but followed that loss with two impressive wins, both of which he was a sportsbook underdog.
?Randy Couture is a superb athlete and fighter,? says Oddessa. ?Just when people count him out, he comes out and surprises. Historically he fights better in the underdog role, but it's difficult to determine how much an effect a loss has on fighter until his next outing.?
Nogueira is also trying to come back from a loss. He was handled by Frank Mir at UFC 92, losing his UFC heavyweight interim title. The promotion later revealed the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist was fighting on an injured knee and was battling a staph infection.
Oddessa believes those injuries and others are just signs that Nogueira is breaking down after 37 professional bouts. During his time in PRIDE, ?Minotauro? was involved in numerous wars and, despite his age (33), is the more weathered fighter heading into the weekend.
?I think a couple years ago, Nogueira would have been a clear favorite to beat Randy Couture,? says Oddessa.
?At this stage of both fighters? careers, Randy Couture belongs as the wagering favorite. The venue alone plays a huge factor in favor of Couture. If the bout goes to a decision and it's close, I can't imagine Couture not getting the nod.?
Fight fans can watch UFC 102 live on pay-per-view. The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 102 Picks:
Randy Couture (-175) over Ant?nio Rodrigo Nogueira: With two savvy fighters, I expect Couture by decision.
Keith Jardine (-150) over Thiago Silva: Jardine has been in there with the best in the sport. He won?t see anything different from Silva.
Chris Leben (-150) over Josh Rosholt: Regardless of focus or training (or steroids), Leben was born a heavy-handed striker and can take a punch.
Demian Maia (+145) over Nate Marquardt: Maia is a dangerous man on the mat. If Nate gets careless trying to land a big shot, he?s in trouble.
Krzysztof Soszynsk (+160) over Brandon Vera: Vera is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC. Soszynsk is bringing more to the table than most expect.
Home-field advantage is something football bettors lean on when making their weekly picks.
But this Saturday night, mixed martial arts fans can also capitalize on that handicapping tool when Randy Couture faces Ant?nio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 102. Couture will climb into the octagon in front of a home-town crowd at the Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon.
?We worked hard to get the sport sanctioned in the state of Oregon and now to see the biggest show headed there is pretty exciting,? Couture told reporters this week.
The MMA veteran is a native of the Pacific Northwest and calls Oregon his second home. He?s established his famous training camp, Team Quest, in Oregon and lived in Corvallis for 14 years while working as a wrestling coach at Oregon State University.
According to renowned MMA linesmaker Joey Oddessa, that home-field advantage is a big reason why the former UFC heavyweight champion is a -175 favorite against Nogueira (+145). He believes that, outside of the motivational factor, Couture will benefit from local judges trying to score Saturday?s bout.
?With the inconsistency of the judges in both the UFC and WEC (World Extreme Cagefighting) and how they interpret the action in the cage, you would expect Oregon officials to be more inclined to score close rounds to the crowd favorite.?
Oddessa has seen this trend in MMA and boxing before, most recently in last week?s light welterweight title bout between Paul Malignaggi and Juan Diaz. Malignaggi appeared to win the late rounds in an even fight but when the decision went to the judges? scorecards, Diaz was given the victory in front of his hometown of Houston, Texas.
That advantage is a nice insurance policy for anyone forking out the extra money to play Couture. However, the 46-year-old fighter is a legit favorite even without the friendly fans.
He?s coming off a devastating loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91 but has shown a tendency to rebound from tough defeats. Couture was knocked out by Chuck Liddell back in 2006 but followed that loss with two impressive wins, both of which he was a sportsbook underdog.
?Randy Couture is a superb athlete and fighter,? says Oddessa. ?Just when people count him out, he comes out and surprises. Historically he fights better in the underdog role, but it's difficult to determine how much an effect a loss has on fighter until his next outing.?
Nogueira is also trying to come back from a loss. He was handled by Frank Mir at UFC 92, losing his UFC heavyweight interim title. The promotion later revealed the Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist was fighting on an injured knee and was battling a staph infection.
Oddessa believes those injuries and others are just signs that Nogueira is breaking down after 37 professional bouts. During his time in PRIDE, ?Minotauro? was involved in numerous wars and, despite his age (33), is the more weathered fighter heading into the weekend.
?I think a couple years ago, Nogueira would have been a clear favorite to beat Randy Couture,? says Oddessa.
?At this stage of both fighters? careers, Randy Couture belongs as the wagering favorite. The venue alone plays a huge factor in favor of Couture. If the bout goes to a decision and it's close, I can't imagine Couture not getting the nod.?
Fight fans can watch UFC 102 live on pay-per-view. The main card is scheduled to begin at 10 p.m. ET.
UFC 102 Picks:
Randy Couture (-175) over Ant?nio Rodrigo Nogueira: With two savvy fighters, I expect Couture by decision.
Keith Jardine (-150) over Thiago Silva: Jardine has been in there with the best in the sport. He won?t see anything different from Silva.
Chris Leben (-150) over Josh Rosholt: Regardless of focus or training (or steroids), Leben was born a heavy-handed striker and can take a punch.
Demian Maia (+145) over Nate Marquardt: Maia is a dangerous man on the mat. If Nate gets careless trying to land a big shot, he?s in trouble.
Krzysztof Soszynsk (+160) over Brandon Vera: Vera is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC. Soszynsk is bringing more to the table than most expect.
