gambling-wise(and anticipation-wise),not a real interesting card,imo...
definitely would NOT go large because of aldo and reem`s past cardio issues,but,i need some action and was kinda looking at a small aldo itd/`reem itd par laying 1 to get 1.35 back.....both lamas` losses have been stoppages....i noticed that the distance prop on aldo/lamas was o/2.5 -110 ..u/ 2.5 -120 in a 5 rounder...for this to go the distance you`d have to expect lamas to get more than a couple takedowns(can`t picture lamas hanging for a full 5 in a stand-up fight).......aldo should be aware that lamas will undoubtedly look for takedowns early and often......and lamas has to be careful with aldo`s flying knees when going for takedowns....i expected lamas to look a good deal bigger than aldo at the weigh in...but i don`t think there was much difference at all...tough way to come off a long layoff for lamas...and i always feel like a lefty has a natural advantage vs an orthodox fighter in stand-up...aldo can`t allow himself to be continually clinched or taken down...
in the second,more a wager against mir than a pro-overeem opinion....i`ll be surprised if mir doesn`t do what he usually does(getting clinched up early by a more physical guy and viciously muay thai`d to death)..i doubt anybody thinks this goes the distance regardless of who wins....overreem has looked like a bit of a fraud in the ufc......maybe mir hangs in early and catches overeem as he tires.....the longer it goes,the better chance mir has(given reem`s cardio issues)...i just think for a small wager,it`s more likely that overeem overpowers mir and regains some of the respect he squandered in some of his recent fights....overeem has gone to decision in 2 of 36 wins...in mir`s 8 losses,7 have been by k.o....a percentage play...both guys really struggling of late...both need a win in a big way...
the itd props are -175 and -200 respectively(last time i looked)...certainly not all that much for most to play straight......(not me,i`m frugal)....
normally i`d pass here,but,wtf...laying 1 to get 1.35 back for shits and giggles...
one i`m really looking forward to is varner vs trujillo...really like varner as a fighter but sometimes he doesn`t seem as mentally tough as you`d think a guy as good as he is would be(kinda thought cerrone psyched varner out before their last fight)....trujillo looks like an amazing athlete( with a very nasty attitude)...what he did to bowling was brutal......but you have to wonder about some of his earlier losses to average fighters... now that he`s been in the ufc, is trujillo now blossoming due to better training and resources?....excellent technical fighter(varner) vs a powerful,explosive athlete who might still be a bit raw and inconsistent...
should be a great fight while it lasts......
