UFC 182, January 3rd, MGM Grand, Las Vegas, Nevada

[akatdrake]

Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier
Donald Cerrone vs Myles Jury
Nate Marquardt vs Brad Tavares
Kyoji Horiguchi vs Louis Gaudinot
Hector Lombard vs Josh Burkman
Danny Castillo vs Paul Felder
Marcus Brimage vs Cody Garbrandt
Shawn Jordan vs Jared Cannonier
Evan Dunham vs Rodrigo Damm
Omary Akmedov vs Mats Nilsson
Alexis Dufresne (w) vs Marion Reneau (w)

Apologies to you Kick, I know you usually create the threads, but I figured I would get less ban-time than if I opened my own thread! :mj07:

Wanted to talk about the main event a little bit and give us all a long time to discuss. I have said for the last year, right when Cormier went from HW to LHW, if he got a title shot, I would put the largest MMA bet of my life on him (20 units). I was hoping at the time for +300 and in fact it's far, far less of it. I believe the line opened at +145 and think it's been as high as +175 but now sits at +150.

I feel Cormier's wrestling is absolutely no joke and that Bones won't be able to deal with it. I know that Bones wrestling and upper body strength is likely stronger than Cormier, but I believe Cormier's lower body propels him win the wrestling and clinch battle. Jones tends to do a lot of damage from the clinch when his opponents struggle to take him down, and continue to try (and fail). Jones separates and you see those elbows and knees. On the feet, Cormier has that KO power that we all look for a champion, Bones - while his striking is arguably the most diverse in the division - he does NOT have that KO power in his hands. Cormier has a pretty decent chin, and we know Jones can be hurt - Machida, Belfort I believe, and certainly Gustaffson. I believe Cormier KOs each of those guys.

Hoping you guys can help me out with reading the line as it gets closer to fight time - when do I pull the trigger? In this matchup, is the line going to go up for Jones and increase my value?

Also, like Omari Akhmedov, Evan Dunham, Hector Lombard, Kyoji Horiguchi, and cannot wait for Cerrone/Jury fight!!!

Kick, I'll let you add the Canucks!

 

[kickserv]

J

Apologies to you Kick, I know you usually create the threads, but I figured I would get less ban-time than if I opened my own thread! :mj07:

I am still debating what I am going to do, there will be a ban, I am just deciding how long.






Oh and I already have money on Daniel Cormier I placed that bet 2 months ago. Jones is going to lose.

 

[ukgaz]

I got Cormier. I think he has the better MMA wrestling and the better striker with more power. I also think he is quicker though Jones has the x factor which cannot be ignored. In the clinch Jones is a monster but Cormier is so powerful I'm not sure where the advantage is there. Will age be a factor 27 to 35?

Jones is also a living legend. Cormier hopes to become one with victory.

I also think this is the greatest LHW title fight in history.

If you only watch one UFC fight in 2015 this should be it:0074

 

[akatdrake]

I am still debating what I am going to do, there will be a ban, I am just deciding how long.






Oh and I already have money on Daniel Cormier I placed that bet 2 months ago. Jones is going to lose.

What did you get the line at, Kick?

 

[kickserv]

What did you get the line at, Kick?

2.60 (+160)

 

[gardenweasel]

this may be the best ufc fight in history in regard to how talented the fighters are...I personally think that cormier is better than velasquez(but that`s a topic for another day)....

the wildcard in this is the height and reach.....if both men were similar in height,i too would be all over cormier....

jones` slick,sneaky strikes are amazing...cornier may well be the better boxing technician(definitely the better wrestler)....but height and reach are tough to ignore...imo,the fact that gustafsson is so tall is the reason why jones struggled so much with him.....

I`m a big cornier admirer...jones` diverse skillset is amazing.....

a dream match-up...

 

[ukgaz]

this may be the best ufc fight in history in regard to how talented the fighters are...I personally think that cormier is better than velasquez(but that`s a topic for another day)....

the wildcard in this is the height and reach.....if both men were similar in height,i too would be all over cormier....

jones` slick,sneaky strikes are amazing...cornier may well be the better boxing technician(definitely the better wrestler)....but height and reach are tough to ignore...imo,the fact that gustafsson is so tall is the reason why jones struggled so much with him.....

I`m a big cornier admirer...jones` diverse skillset is amazing.....

a dream match-up...

Agreed. Height and reach is a big wildcard. Cormier is only 5'11 and has average reach for even a middleweight let alone light heavy. I think we are going to see a lot of push kicks from Jones early in the fight has he tries to figure DC out. I wonder who will push the first takedown of the fight and how will they react if they dont get it

I don't think anyone has had the upper hand against DC yet. Looking back on his career I think he has won every round he has been in - heck probably every minute. I wonder how he will react if Jones takes a round or cuts him. We know Jones is super tough on the mental side. He survived a nasty armlock from Belfort, was possibly down a round against Lyoto and was losing against Gus so he knows how to adjust. In MMA we have not seen that from DC yet because he has been so dominant.

 

[Bradjmad22]

Can anyone find a good reason not to take Lombard inside the distance? Looking to play it huge! It's -150 right now

 

[layinwood]

Going to be on Jones BIG. Really like this fight. IMO Cormier hasn't been in the cage with the same caliber of guys that Jones has. Jones has made some of the greats look really bad.

Really all I'm hoping is that this is one of those fights that makes me jump to my feet in excitement so many times I'm tired at the end of it. I think it has a chance to do that.

 

[kickserv]

The Champ is going to lose! Cormier wrestling is so good he won't be scared to close the distance on
Jones. Jones reach is such an advantage for him, it won't mean much against Cormier. Everybody
except Alexander Gustafsson already lost before they stepped in the cage with Jones. The Swede almost beat Jones, Cormier is better then the Swede. Jones has talked so much shit I don't think he's going to be
able to back it up. Jones is used to toying with people, this will be a fucking war. Cormier wins by
decision is my call. Once Jones realizes his reach isn't helping him win the fight he's going to panic. I
can see Jones quitting in the 5th, he will get frustrated and his cocky ass won't know what to do. The first three rounds will be a battle and very close. 4th and 5th will be all Cormier! For the first time Jones will not know what the fuck to do. I really think Cormier is going to break Jones mentally!



Cormier at 2.60 (+160) odds....fuck yeah:00hour

 

[kickserv]

Can anyone find a good reason not to take Lombard inside the distance? Looking to play it huge! It's -150 right now

I'll let you know when the fight is donemoon1

 

[THE_THONG]

I like cormier, too opcorn2

BUT GET READY FOR THIS

jones is going to try and OUTWRESTLE cormier :facepalm:

he loves to do that shit, beat the opposition with their best skill

jones looks like he plateau'd and hit the law of diminishing returns

hopefully cerrone has been doing too much other shit on brokeback mountain and jury runs circles around him

 

[THE_THONG]

I am still debating what I am going to do, there will be a ban, I am just deciding how long.

I am thinking about parlaying cormier with nfl selections because it will be wildcard weekend

OH SHIT, I KNOW WRONG THREAD

you can think about banning me for 2 days, too

 

[layinwood]

I'm thinking Jones is going to use a lot of kicks, mainly leg kicks. Cormier is a fairly flat footed fighter. He doesn't bounce in and out much and because of that he leaves his lead leg sitting there quite a bit. He really hasn't faced anyone that can do much damage to his legs. I was thinking maybe Barnett would have but it was limited. Silva never had a chance to do any damage because he got an ass kicking quickly. Really no other fights Cormier has faced use kicks. The question is how much does Jones use them and risk TDs? There are so many parts of this fight that are tough to analyze because of who Cormier hasn't fought. He really hasn't fought anyone with much speed and movement. His striking is very crisp and fast but what will that look like against someone who is pretty quick and can make him pay if he misses.

I'll be on Jones but trust me I won't if Cormier wins. The one thing I do want to see is Cormier pick Jones up and slam him.

Hoping the line goes down just a little. I can get 170 but I won't be able to get down on it as much as I want to with it being that high.

 

[kickserv]

you can think about banning me for 2 days, too

Might be 3 days.

 

[kickserv]

..

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/CsT_cJCJi-0" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[gardenweasel]

I am thinking about parlaying cormier with nfl selections because it will be wildcard weekend

OH SHIT, I KNOW WRONG THREAD

you can think about banning me for 2 days, too

good strategy if you can find a game you really like and the moneyline isn`t outrageous(like the packers last weekend and the steelers this weekend)...

thinking about Castillo w/ the squeelers....felder could knock Castillo out but I`m thinking Castillo will utilize his grappling in this one... he`s hung in with strikers like barboza and I can`t find any indication that felder is much of a grappler...in the video I watched I saw a somewhat flat footed striker who likes crazy spinning kicks and flashy strikes and knees....I think that may play into Castillo`s takedown game(unless he`s careless)....

I`ll decide before post time....

 

[layinwood]

I'm not sure if it will go any lower and I like him at 165 so I'm jumping on it.

Overall 59-44 +51.74 units


Opinions 18-19 +2.75(always .5 unit)



Jones -165 5 units


Big play on this one. I'm not a Jones fan, actually I don't like him at all and I really like Cormier but to me Jones is much like GSP was for all of those years. They're so complete they'll find a weakness and use it to beat you. You combine that he's the best and IMO has the best guy at game planning in MMA and I like my chances. Like I said earlier, Cormier fights very flat footed. I think you see his front leg get kicked and kicked often. If he starts having to check those kicks and thinking about them it's going to change his striking dramatically. I also like Jones chances in the clinch.

I guess my big worry is Cormier and his wrestling. We haven't seen Jones on his back much so there is a big unknown there.

 

[gardenweasel]

I'm not sure if it will go any lower and I like him at 165 so I'm jumping on it.

Overall 59-44 +51.74 units


Opinions 18-19 +2.75(always .5 unit)



Jones -165 5 units


Big play on this one. I'm not a Jones fan, actually I don't like him at all and I really like Cormier but to me Jones is much like GSP was for all of those years. They're so complete they'll find a weakness and use it to beat you. You combine that he's the best and IMO has the best guy at game planning in MMA and I like my chances. Like I said earlier, Cormier fights very flat footed. I think you see his front leg get kicked and kicked often. If he starts having to check those kicks and thinking about them it's going to change his striking dramatically. I also like Jones chances in the clinch.

I guess my big worry is Cormier and his wrestling. We haven't seen Jones on his back much so there is a big unknown there.

I was thinking back to the jones/sonnen fight and how jones toyed with sonnen`s grappling...he basically mocked sonnen by playing sonnen`s game.....that was impressive as hell...

of course,cormier is a much bigger,much badder,much stronger and well rounded dude than sonnen...with dangerous striking to boot....and we know cormier can go 5 tough rounds and still dominate a very good big man(josh Barnett).....

this seems like it should be a grind of a fight....has the potential to be a great fight...

I`m such a big fan of Cormier's...but jones might have more quality mma fighting tools than any fighter that ever stepped into a cage(diverse striking/grappling/length/mental toughness)....




why in god`s name is this scheduled at the same time as the ravens` playoff game?....:wtf:

F-CK !!.

tough,tough call....

 

[akatdrake]

I'm not sure if it will go any lower and I like him at 165 so I'm jumping on it.

Overall 59-44 +51.74 units


Opinions 18-19 +2.75(always .5 unit)



Jones -165 5 units


Big play on this one. I'm not a Jones fan, actually I don't like him at all and I really like Cormier but to me Jones is much like GSP was for all of those years. They're so complete they'll find a weakness and use it to beat you. You combine that he's the best and IMO has the best guy at game planning in MMA and I like my chances. Like I said earlier, Cormier fights very flat footed. I think you see his front leg get kicked and kicked often. If he starts having to check those kicks and thinking about them it's going to change his striking dramatically. I also like Jones chances in the clinch.

I guess my big worry is Cormier and his wrestling. We haven't seen Jones on his back much so there is a big unknown there.

Good luck on your bet. I agree that Bones is the same as GSP and they want to beat you at your game. Outwrestled Hughes, outstruck Koscheck, etc - but I don't believe Bones can do that with Cormier. Do we know anything about Bones BJJ or how he can scramble off his back? It's not like Cormier is not a stalky dude... the guy gets his hands on you and imposes his well. Jesus, even Gustaffson was able to get Bones down (didn't stay on top of him because of his style)... but Cormier's style is just more suffocating.

I agree with your assessment on being flat-footed, but I don't think that is going to matter. Cormier seems willing to absorb leg kicks in order to clinch and grab a single-leg or improve his takedown position.

Lastly, I think the clinch actually favors Cormier in that when he gets his mitts on you, he doesn't let go. Jones relies on his ability to quickly separate and deliver strikes like knees and elbows, ala Cain Velazquez, but who do you think Cormier's biggest training partner is...