UFC 51

hardcorecap

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Well only 2 days away, and I know some guys like to wait for the weigh ins, but I like to get the best line, and Ill take my chanced of them coming to fight in top shape. Lots of good fights on this card, im really looking forward to it, Im even missing my boy Zab Judah fight.

So far I played

Sylvia -102
Belfort -106
 

skillrules

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This is the PPV fight order:

1. Paul Buentello vs Justin Eilers

2. David Terrell vs Evan Tanner - UFC Middleweight Championship

3. Andrei Arlovski vs Tim Sylvia - UFC Heavyweight Interim Championship

4. SWING BOUT - Phil Baroni vs Pete Sell

5. Vitor Belfort vs Tito Ortiz - Main Event

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with the prelims being aired on tape, time permitting

1. Nick Diaz vs Drew Fickett

2. Karo Parisyan vs Chris Lytle

3. David Loiseau vs Gideon Ray

4. Mike Kyle vs James Irvin

I will post my picks and analysis in this thread in the upcoming days.

Its great to see that 3 of the fights are right in the pick-em range, so you just have to pick a winner and not worry about the line.

Good luck hardcore
 

hardcorecap

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Thanks Skill, same ot you. Looking forward to your picks. I like Terrell and Baroni too, though havent played them. Seems like they want to get Baroni back on track here. Not his toughest or experienced opponenet in UFC competition.
 

skillrules

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As far as Baroni, yeah Sell is a late replacement to Robbie Lawler who was supposed to fight Phil. It was being played as win or your out of the UFC for Phil and Robbie since they are both on losing streaks. I've been looking into Sells takedown ability and Im not convinced he will be much better than Serra's (his trainer), who's own takedown inability has killed him in the UFC. At a 3-1 favorite, Im just going to lay off of this one, but I may bet Phil late just for the action as I think he gets the KO and then starts the screaming.

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Tito Ortiz 1X -101 - This fight has been a long time coming. Its not like it is a mystery, since both fighters have had almost every fight televised or on DVD from Pride in the earlier events.

It has been long rumored that when Tito was on his winning streak and championship holder, that he did not want to fight Vitor. This was just recently confirmed by Tito's old management. Tito seemed to have the similar fear later against Chuck and we know what happened there.

So why am I taking Tito? Because Vitor has ended up on the bottom in several fights, particularly both Couture and the Sakuraba fights. Tito knows he can beat Vitor, which before he didnt. In the UFC, with the cage, Tito has a slight advantage, although if he fights in that stiff, hold the elbows up around the chin style, he will lose the same way he lost to Chuck. Hence, only 1 unit.

BTW - This is the last fight in Tito's contract and rumor is that Pride wants him for the next Middleweight grand prix.

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Arlovski -115 1x

Arlovski is much more athletic than Sylvia, although giving up a lot of height. He will be fine on the ground, the danger is the same that got Ricco, not being able to take the fight down and not being in close enough range to strike while being a target for Tims reach. Of course, Andrei is a better striker than Ricco and Im hoping he can use his superior strength and athleticism to stay in a range that keeps Sylvia off balance. Also think that Andrei is better on the ground than given credit for, and also know that Tim's coordination although improved is far behind almost everyone.

Only 1 unit, because Arlovski has been KO'ed before and Sylvia has done some knocking out himself.

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Mike Kyle +152 1X

This one is simple, Irvin has fought and KO'ed sub .500 fighters with little true ability. The one guy he beat with a record of over .500 was from his own camp. People are looking at the undefeated record as well as Kyle's bad UFC fight and making too many assumptions. Love the odds.

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Karo Parysian -121 1X

Karo should be in good shape for this one and although Lytle has improved tremendously in the last few years, I like Parysian to be dangerous throughout the fight at all distances.

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I made these bets last night, have some other leans, will post them tomorrow.

I hope some others post their picks to. GLTA
 

skillrules

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Weigh in photos here:
http://www.ufc.tv/multimedia/photoGallery.asp

Report from a UFC fan here:

Now, it?s on to the weigh-ins. Things went smoothly at the weigh-ins with two notable exceptions. In a bizarre turn of events, both Evan Tanner and David Terrell missed the required 185-pound weight limit for their middleweight title fight. Tanner weighed 187.5 pounds, while Terrell bested him by tipping the scales at a robust 188 pounds. Both men will have two hours to try and work off the excess pounds in the sauna.

Here are the actual results from the Mandalay Bay Theater (which was completely packed with fans):

Tito Ortiz (204.5 lbs) vs. Vitor Belfort (205 lbs)

A sweaty Ortiz actually ran onto the stage about an hour before the weigh-ins to check his weight. He was obviously on the tail end of his cutting efforts, and appeared to be right on target.

When two fighters returned at a little past 4 PM to weigh-in, it was intense. Belfort stepped on the scale first. Wait until you see the photos (coming shortly). "The Phenom" was a ripped and dry as I?ve ever seen him in his entire career. Unlike for his previous two championship fights against Randy Couture, Belfort did not have a piece of fat or an excess piece of skin to be found anywhere. He was completely shredded.

Tito Ortiz weighed-in second and was his usual ripped self. He didn?t look like he had to cut as much weight compared to the Liddell fight when Ortiz showed up at 201 pounds and looking extremely thin in the neck area. This time Tito looked very big and ready to go.

The crowd heckled Ortiz a bit before he stepped on the scale and he mimicked a cry baby sign toward them. He was calm, relaxed and completely at ease with himself.

During the stare down, the fighters actually had to be separated. Ortiz got right in Belfort?s face in an obvious attempt at intimidation. Belfort, however, did not back down an inch. He seemed more focused, if not angry, than he has since the Marvin Eastman fight, when The Phenom did not take kindly to Eastman?s antics. Again, "The Huntington Beach Bad Boy" seemed ultra confident and ready to go. There was no handshake. This will be a great fight.

Andrei Arlovski (238 lbs) vs. Tim Sylvia (263 lbs)

The man from Minsk, Belarus came in very big and muscular for his interim championship fight. He also sported very long hair and a rather full goatee, which raises the obvious question of whether he will be allowed to enter the Octagon with it. The rules state that a beard may not act as additional padding. Stay tuned.

Sylvia was ultra relaxed and ready to go. Before he stepped onto the scales, someone in the crowd yelled, "Tim ain?t on the juice no more!" The former champ simply chuckled and stepped onto the scales and a ready 263 pounds.

Just as with Ortiz-Belfort, the stare down for Arlovski-Sylvia was intense with Dana White stepping in between the fighters as they got ever so close to each other. Also, there was no handshake or acknowledgement between the men. It almost seemed as if there was some bad blood brewing.

Evan Tanner (187.5 lbs) vs. David Terrell (188 lbs)

With both men weighing-in above the championship limit, there was no pre-fight stare down. Instead, each man went off to continue cutting weight. Although they were both over weight, each man looked shredded to the bone. This wasn?t a case of under preparation for either man. Instead, they obviously miscalculated their water intake.

Tanner, sporting extremely long hair and a skull cap, seemed to be amused by the fact that he was overweight. Unlike Terrell, Tanner hit the traditional double-bicep pose before exiting the stage. There is little doubt that both men will make weight in the allotted time.

Phil Baroni (185 lbs) vs. Pete "Drago" Sell (183 lbs)

Drago weighed in first and looked very full and muscular as one would expect for a guy who didn?t have to cut much, if any, weight. When he was on the scale, someone screamed, "You?re a dead man, Sell!" Drago just took it in stride and seemed unconcerned.

The New York Bad Ass weighed-in second and made a production out of the event. He showed up fully dressed in a New York outfit and took his time getting unclothed for the weigh-in. Whether it was gamesmanship or not, Baroni was very deliberate during the process.

He actually tried to step on the scale wearing a t-shirt and baggy shorts, probably to hide his physique. He was overweight, so Baroni stepped off, removed his shirt and shorts and weighed-in right on the button. Folks, this wasn?t the thin, streamlined Baroni from the last Tanner fight. Rather, it was a very thick and cut Phil Baroni. When these two step into the Octagon, Baroni will likely outweigh his opponent by 15 pounds.

Again, there was on handshake or acknowledgement. The stare down was extremely intense with a relaxed and extremely confident Baroni almost seeming to shrug off his opponent.

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Justin Eilers (225 lbs) vs. Paul Buentello (247 lbs)
Buentello weighed-in first and wore his t-shirt during the process. When he removed it for the stare down, he seemed a little soft around the middle, but that is typical Paul Buentello. He is just a big guy who doesn?t get lean, but those close to him say he is in excellent shape.

Justin Eilers came in looking very good and very relaxed. As a sign of respect, both fighters shook hands and nodded to each other after the stare down.

Preliminary Fights

Karo Parisyan (170 lbs) vs. Chris Lytle (170.5 lbs) ? both men looked to be in great shape and both showed respect toward the other. Lytle?s extra half pound is meaningless since this is a non-title fight.

Nick Diaz (170 lbs) vs. Drew Fickett (170 lbs) ? Diaz was ultra ripped. Fickett, who also appeared to be in great shape, seemed to be more muscular, although somewhat shorter. Both men seemed confident as Fickett pounded Pedia-lyte before the stare downs. Diaz turned and walked away after the pose down without acknowledging his opponent, which seemed to irk Fickett.

Mike Kyle (242 lbs) vs. James Irvin (224 lbs) - Again, both fighters looked relaxed and ready. What was shocking, however, was the relative size differential between the two fighers. Kyle absolutely dwarfed Irvin. It was shocking. It will be interesting to see how the betting lines react after such a noticeable size differential.

David Loiseau (184.5 lbs) vs. Gideon Ray (180 lbs) ? Talk about size mismatches! Loiseau absolutely dwarfed his opponent, who typically fights at 170 pounds. Ray was extremely thick with full muscle bellies ? a sure sign that he did not have to cut weight. He is built similarly to Marvin Eastman, a veritable ton of bricks. But Loiseau actually cut from 200 pounds, so there will likely be a 20-pound weight differential come fight time and there?s already a very noticeable height differential.

After the weigh-ins, InsideFighting spoke with Drago Sell?s team. Matt Serra, Ray Longo and Sell all seemed very relaxed as they were exiting the Theater. Serra said he looked forward to a great fight and Sell was extremely polite and respectful when saying hello. All in all, the team seemed ready to go.

Also on hand at the weigh-ins was middleweight star Rich Franklin. The UFC has a big announcement to make this weekend involving Franklin. After Ken Shamrock came on our radio show and acknowledged that Franklin was being considered as his next opponent, it seems likely that the UFC is poised to announce that fight as the headliner for the April 9th show.
 

skillrules

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adding:

OK, Baroni went back to -296 so I took it 1.5u to win >.5u

I like the idea that Phil is back to the swole version and think he has good enough sprawls/pummeling/underhooks to keep the fight standing most of the time, while having enough ground confidence to throw his punches with intent.
 

hardcorecap

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Baroni has his back to the wall, I see an early KO by the badass here. He needs it
 

gardenweasel

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i agree with my man skill......diaz-155......i just like his caliber of opposition....he`s been to the big dance a few times.....i see some repeat wins on fickett`s record over not so tough opposition....going strictly off what i`ve read and learned from the net....

also diaz/baroni parlay at better that even odds....baroni needs to get off the scheid....i couldn`t lay 3-1 with this headcase.though...

and a small play on parisyan-125...

g.l.

we`ll see...
 
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skillrules

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I took two more underdogs, although it was tough to pull the trigger.

Evan Tanner +173 - .6u to win 1u
I know a lot of people inside the BJJ camps and everyone assures me that Terrell is the natural and a monster. Very similar buzz to BJ Penn, who has gone on to be the best pound for pound fighter in the world, with his 2nd weight class move up and domination of Rodigo Gracie.

But Tanner has so much experience I think it is dangerous to make him this big an underdog to a young guy, no matter how skilled. He left Team Quest, which is a concern, but his boxing has supposedly benefitted and hopefully he doesnt look as mechanical and stiff while standing.

I wouldnt argue with anyone picking David, if the odds were lower, like -130, I would take him to. If they spend much time on the ground, I expect Terrell to school Evan.

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Paul Buentello +160 .6u to win 1u (MVPsports)

MVP, even with the much higher vig had a line better than Pinnacle for Paul. Yeah, Im taking the pudgy, dopey looking guy. What he lacks in genetics he makes up for in heart, experience and determination. There are a ton of great stories about this guy the last few years and Ive seen many of his KOTC fights. He is good standing, throws punches with very good leverage for an MMA guy.

The biggest reason I took Paul, is because Justin promised to stand and bang as opposed to making this a ground fight. While he could break his promise, I like Buentello's chances more in a stand up fight. But also realize that Paul isnt awful on the ground, he is calm, can survive and also can submit if his opponent makes a terrible mistake.

When you first look at these guys before the Ref starts it, it will look like a mismatch and that Paul hasnt trained at all, so if Eilers gets an easy, early KO, I will look like an idiot.

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The hope is that one of these underdogs hits.

Good luck weasel.
 
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Spacepilgrim

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Baroni's a pussy....CHIT, I was looking for a sweep. Hope Ortiz come through. :cursin:
4-0 till Barchokie :cursin:
 
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Trossi3389

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wow!!! what post fight firworks after that tito/belfort fight!!! :eek: i bet sylvia.. :rolleyes: knew i was toast as soon as tim took his shirt off.. man was he was soft.. :rolleyes: he looked horrible.. pretty good night of entertainment though!!! :)

p.s, dieing to see frank and the pittbull go at it!!!!
 

Spacepilgrim

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7-1 on the night including Judah and under11.5 but that 1 killed me. Oh well still made a profit and had a pretty entrtaining night. What more can you ask for! F*** Baroni , agreed
 

gardenweasel

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most did pretty well.....skill hit some solid underdogs....nice job.....

i`ll take 2-1.....

baroni?.....maybe it`s time to call it a day....more flash than substance apparently...

and i`m sooooo glad i left belfort alone....has to be one of the most overrated guys ever in ufc....totally one dimensional....had ortiz down and barely threw a punch.....had elbows available....didn`t use `em....seems to freeze when the going gets tough....

lousy cardio....musclebound...

love the way ortiz called out old ken shamrock.....who he already waxed once....he`s a beauty...

good job guys....
 
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