UFC Fight Night 71, July 15th, San Diego, California

kickserv

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Fight Card
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Todd Duffee vs. Frank Mir
Tony Ferguson vs. Josh Thomson
Holly Holm vs. Marion Reneau
Manny Gamburyan vs. Scott Jorgensen
Kevin Lee vs. James Moontasri
Matt Dwyer:canada1 vs. Alan Jouban
Yaotzin Meza vs. Sam Sicilia
Jessica Andrade vs. Sarah Moras:canada1
Masanori Kanehara vs. Rani Yahya
Igor Araujo vs. Sean Strickland
Ildemar Alcantara vs. Kevin Casey
Andrew Craig vs. Lyman Good



Two chick fights and two Canucks on the card = awesome fight card:bigun:
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
if mir/duffee goes 5 rounds I`m f-cked....I was drinking a bit while watching sunday night(no work Monday)...I wanted to throw something on" Ellenberger/Thompson doesn`t go the 5 round distance".....so brainiac parred jake/Thompson doesn`t go the distance with duffee wins itd and rousey itd for $100 to win $172.......then I played mir itd laying a buck to win roughly $172.......so I put up $200 to win $72......:mj07:

if mir/duffee goes the distance I`m gonna cut off my keying finger.....:lol:

don`t wager when you`re half in the bag.......:facepalm:
 

LA Burns

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if mir/duffee goes 5 rounds I`m f-cked....I was drinking a bit while watching sunday night(no work Monday)...I wanted to throw something on" Ellenberger/Thompson doesn`t go the 5 round distance".....so brainiac parred jake/Thompson doesn`t go the distance with duffee wins itd and rousey itd for $100 to win $172.......then I played mir itd laying a buck to win roughly $172.......so I put up $200 to win $72......:mj07:

if mir/duffee goes the distance I`m gonna cut off my keying finger.....:lol:

don`t wager when you`re half in the bag.......:facepalm:

what was the price on Ell/Th under?
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
what was the price on Ell/Th under?

ell/thomp didn`t go the distance was -195(which seemed more than reasonable for a 5 round fight with those 2 guys)/duffee itd was -170 and rousey itd is a whopping -750........I should have just played the -195...it`s only 20-odd dollars difference.:mj07:..that`s what I mean about the drink..disgraceful...

mir itd was +172


I hate laying odds at any time and had that prop,the mir/duffee doesn`t go the distance and rousey itd as near can`t miss(in my inebriated mind) plays.......

so I cobbled them together to try and turn a profit with as little risk as possible...of course the more plays the better chance something goes wrong....I could still win the $72 but that certainly isn`t worth the grief or the smart way to go about it(if mir and duffee get tired early without either getting the finish and lay on each other I get a two way f`ing)...if rousey loses to this stiff correia,i`ll give up gambling,even though if it all gets to that point I could hedge a little.....but shit,what in god`s name was I thinking?.....

lesson learned...

I like my chances but it was dumb,dumb,dumb for a pissy $72....lousy impulse control.....:lol:
 
Last edited:

kickserv

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2015 MMA Record
---------------------------------------------
Prop Bet 2-4
Fighter vs. Fighter 22-20
Over/Under 1-6
Parlays 3-33

-1.98 Joe Rogans



Parlay
---------------------------------------------------------
Lyman Good
Sean Strickland
Sam Sicilia
Kevin Lee
Ildemar Alcantara

odds = $6.83 (+583) *0.75 Joe Rogan
 

kickserv

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adding so it looks like this now..........



Frank Mir beat Todd Duffee $2.80 (+180) *1 Joe Rogan


Parlay
---------------------------------------------------------
Lyman Good
Sean Strickland
Sam Sicilia
Kevin Lee
Ildemar Alcantara

odds = $6.83 (+583) *0.75 Joe Rogan
 

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
main play...parlaying mir/duffee doesn`t start rd 4/dwyer-jouban doesn`t go the distance/rousey wins itd(future).........laying 2 to win almost 1.3.........


going to use gamburyan with something...Jorgensen seems to have regressed a bit...

very small prop plays and longshots:

-manny itd at +250(what happened to jorgensen?..lost 4 of his last 5 and subbed three times in those losses)
-might consider jouban itd at -215 as a parlay partner(will be very surprised if this one goes to the cards)
-if mir-duffee goes 5 it will be almost as big an upset as correia beating rousey(but not quite)...mir looked very heavy at the weigh in(you`d expect his cardio will suffer)...



couple sidenotes...i`m curious to see whether lyman good`s strong, slow deliberate style translates well to the ufc vs a higher level of competition....and I think both reneau and josh thomson at roughly +205 each are interesting dogs...still,holm represents a considerable investment to the ufc and she`s a tall,mobile lefty(she looked terrible in her first ufc fight and reneau can be a bulldog...holm needs to look impressive here) and Thomson always seems to get the shaft in close fights(unfairly several times,imo),so I`m not sure whether I`ll bother pulling the trigger on either?

g.l. everybody...
 

akatdrake

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Parlay
---------------------------------------------------------
Lyman Good
Sean Strickland
Sam Sicilia
Kevin Lee
Ildemar Alcantara

odds = $6.83 (+583) *0.75 Joe Rogan
[/QUOTE]

Tailing you on this play, Kick. I got it at +515 0.5/2.58

Good/Sicilia/Jouban/Gamburyan +273 1/2.73

Frank Mir +170 over Todd Duffee 0.5/0.85
Duffee's fight IQ is awful. Think Mir makes one last case for a big name fight.

Marion Reneau +190 over Holly Holm 0.5/0.95
Reneau's BJJ is sick (Cleber Jiu Jitsu) and if she can get Holm to the ground, this could be over quick.
 

kickserv

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Tailing you on this play, Kick. I got it at +515 0.5/2.58







dog-wagging-tail.gif~c200
 

ukgaz

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Not a bad card. I thought it was on fightpass but it's actually on Fox.

I've got Duffee. Mir is a legend and has some good wins since his bike accident. But he has a LOT of miles on his body and Duffee can hit hard. I think the younger fighter takes this though at times I question both guys decision making.

Like Yahya against Kanehara but I've not taken this one yet. Got an hour or so to make up my mind at +110. Don't think he will submit him but could win a decision.

Scott Jorgensen has had a bad 3 years and is on a rapid decline. Manny hits hard and is tough to sub and I don't think Scott at this stage of his career can hold him down.

UFC are probably hoping Holm looks good in victory
 

kickserv

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Lyman makes good on his UFC debut.......nice to see the Vet get the win.

Nice right hand to Craig's face.
 

ukgaz

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couple sidenotes...i`m curious to see whether lyman good`s strong, slow deliberate style translates well to the ufc vs a higher level of competition....

g.l. everybody...

I was surprised it took so long for him to get to the UFC. His 3 losses are against decent guys
Askren - we will never know how good that guy was
Hawn - I think could have been mid level in the 155 division but his prime was only 2 or so years long
Koreshkov - decent fighter with only 1 loss to Askren

Wild card here is Andrew Craig as it's his first time at 170. It's possible Good gets first timer nerves as well.

Nice fight
 

kickserv

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Wild card here is Andrew Craig as it's his first time at 170. It's possible Good gets first timer nerves as well.



The fight is already finished




:facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:



See post 15.

:facepalm::facepalm::facepalm:
 
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