Main event:
Maia's BJJ is light years ahead of anyone else's in the division, and MMA entirely except for Werdum and Magalhaes. Thing about Maia is that he chains positional advantages vs submission attempts. It may look extremely boring to anyone who does not practice BJJ, but it's really fun to watch from a technical standpoint. I am a huge fan.
Maia's striking is improving, but not great, but they've always said this fight-camp that the plan is taking Condit down. Maia could get hurt (I'm thinking flying knee) going for the takedown, but he rarely shoots for wrestling-like double-legs, instead working to get his opponent against the cage and running the pipe type single-leg. I don't see Condit defending that once up against the fence.
Once it gets to the ground, those positional chains will be what gets Maia the job done. Condit is active on his back, and I'm afraid that is something that may bite him in the ass. We've seen him throw elbows from the bottom, and doing anything other than keeping your elbows in, puts you at a severe disadvantage vs someone who looks for position over submission. You miss an crossface elbow from the bottom and you get arm-triangled. That being said, Carlos's defense is pretty adequate, but I do not see him being able to get up at-will. Look at the Maia/Gunnar Nelson fight - Maia made Nelson look like a green-behind-the-ear white belt...
Carlos's advantage obviously lies on the feet, but even moreso replicating the gameplan Conor McGregor had vs Nate Diaz. Keep the distance, however you can - and even though I don't think Maia has it in him, run if you need to. Maia has shown he has a bit of a chin, but his striking game is to basically to not GTFO and secure the takedown..
This to me, however, looks like a five-round fight, barring a flash knockout, or a gimme submission. I think both of the fighters have adequate enough defense vs each other's strength to not be finished, but like Dominick Cruz said, it could be a snoozer. What if Maia cannot take him down vs what if Condit cannot get up? Looks to be a Maia by decision to me.
Oliveira +175 over Pettis 1/1.75
Miller +115 over Lauzon 1/1.15
Maia Wins via Decision +225 1/2.25
Good luck chaps! Cross fingers for no BDB sighting!!!
