UFC War of 04
- Thread starter hardcorecap
- Start date
One of the premises I use is that the underdogs win at least 2 of the UFC fights per card, which predates when real books started making lines. I made the lines in the old days and we had contests with prize money.
So here are the picks I made (lines may have moved, from when I bet - Pinnacle):
Ivan Salaverry -132 (2x)
This guy will give you your money's worth. On the ground, a stud. Continually improving standup. Has had some problems gassing, but says he now focuses on caridio every morning. He might lose, but Frykland will have to be better than ever before to get it done.
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The underdogs:
Frank Trigg +141 (1x) - While I love Verissimo's sytle and he is rightfully a favorite, it is always easier going with the wrestler with the takedown and strength advantage in the UFC. If Trigg fights smart, he will get the top position against the fence. He can win a decision this way as well as the possibility of getting in a shot that takes Verissimo out. The downside of this fight and why he is the underdog is twofold: 1, that Trigg's aggressiveness could play right into a submission and 2, that since Renato lost a very close decision to Hughes, he might get the decision this time should it go that far.
Robbie Lawler +155 (1x) - I am taking this one, because this is who I want to root for. So it isnt a big recommendation. Many are saying that Lawler has no chance, but I think it could get exciting and Tanner is 33, had some admitted alcohol problems in the past and comes down 20 pounds from his natural weight. My point being that he isnt as fresh quick as he could be. This is a proceed at your own risk pick though.
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The favorites USA vs. Canada
Matt Hughes -262 (2.6 to win 1u) - This is an easier pick. St. Pierre was doing well at the B Level which inluded his fight against another B fighter last minute replacement in the UFC prelim. Even he balked at fighting Hughes, knowing he need more experience and training time. This equates to the best Div 1-AA team playing a top ranked Div 1A team. And the ML number is only -260. Hughes will take him down and pound him. The only negative, I saw a pic of St. Pierre taken yesterday and he is big and ripped to the bone. A couple of months ago Penn said the guy is obviously on the juice and it appears so. At the very start of the fight when Georges is fresh will be his only real chance to win. Otherwise he will need an upset far greater than 2.5 to 1.
Tito Ortiz -439 (4.3 to win 1u) - Normally I would never give up this number in MMA, but in this case I make an exception. Cote as the late replacement is another Canadian B-Level fighter. He isnt quick enough, althletic enough, experienced enough or skilled enough to pose a big threat. He has a KO punch, but if Tito cant beat this guy his career is in jeopardy, Mohawk or no mohawk. Not exactly a barn burner main event, but making a little money will soften the blow.
Pass on the other fights. Good luck.
So here are the picks I made (lines may have moved, from when I bet - Pinnacle):
Ivan Salaverry -132 (2x)
This guy will give you your money's worth. On the ground, a stud. Continually improving standup. Has had some problems gassing, but says he now focuses on caridio every morning. He might lose, but Frykland will have to be better than ever before to get it done.
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The underdogs:
Frank Trigg +141 (1x) - While I love Verissimo's sytle and he is rightfully a favorite, it is always easier going with the wrestler with the takedown and strength advantage in the UFC. If Trigg fights smart, he will get the top position against the fence. He can win a decision this way as well as the possibility of getting in a shot that takes Verissimo out. The downside of this fight and why he is the underdog is twofold: 1, that Trigg's aggressiveness could play right into a submission and 2, that since Renato lost a very close decision to Hughes, he might get the decision this time should it go that far.
Robbie Lawler +155 (1x) - I am taking this one, because this is who I want to root for. So it isnt a big recommendation. Many are saying that Lawler has no chance, but I think it could get exciting and Tanner is 33, had some admitted alcohol problems in the past and comes down 20 pounds from his natural weight. My point being that he isnt as fresh quick as he could be. This is a proceed at your own risk pick though.
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The favorites USA vs. Canada
Matt Hughes -262 (2.6 to win 1u) - This is an easier pick. St. Pierre was doing well at the B Level which inluded his fight against another B fighter last minute replacement in the UFC prelim. Even he balked at fighting Hughes, knowing he need more experience and training time. This equates to the best Div 1-AA team playing a top ranked Div 1A team. And the ML number is only -260. Hughes will take him down and pound him. The only negative, I saw a pic of St. Pierre taken yesterday and he is big and ripped to the bone. A couple of months ago Penn said the guy is obviously on the juice and it appears so. At the very start of the fight when Georges is fresh will be his only real chance to win. Otherwise he will need an upset far greater than 2.5 to 1.
Tito Ortiz -439 (4.3 to win 1u) - Normally I would never give up this number in MMA, but in this case I make an exception. Cote as the late replacement is another Canadian B-Level fighter. He isnt quick enough, althletic enough, experienced enough or skilled enough to pose a big threat. He has a KO punch, but if Tito cant beat this guy his career is in jeopardy, Mohawk or no mohawk. Not exactly a barn burner main event, but making a little money will soften the blow.
Pass on the other fights. Good luck.
After seeing the weigh-in pics, its tough to be confident about Trigg's fight, but especially Lawlers. Lawler looks soft, not looking in tip-top shape. Trigg is in great shape as always, but Renato is lean as well and seems to be carrying quite a bit of muscle for someone so tall at 170 pounds.
Going to be a fun night!
Going to be a fun night!
trigg seems to me(a casual fan...certainly not as up on this as skill or some others)like a guy that comes to fight every time out.....he seems to be fairly well rounded....with a bit of a mean streak.....
i would tend to think that if verissimo doesn`t submit him,his more well rounded game and aggressiveness should stand him in good stead...but,what do i know,lol....
and i have to say,i was so impressed with st pierre,i put a case of beer(small bet)on him....i only saw him once....probably vs a nobody...but he was in amazing shape....great stamina....and an offensive buzzsaw.... he was a whirlwind....
of course,if hughes takes him down,that might be it....
and i had to take a shot with tanner...the naturally bigger man....at around -150....
g.l.....
and skill....thanks for weighing in...appreciated...
i would tend to think that if verissimo doesn`t submit him,his more well rounded game and aggressiveness should stand him in good stead...but,what do i know,lol....
and i have to say,i was so impressed with st pierre,i put a case of beer(small bet)on him....i only saw him once....probably vs a nobody...but he was in amazing shape....great stamina....and an offensive buzzsaw.... he was a whirlwind....
of course,if hughes takes him down,that might be it....
and i had to take a shot with tanner...the naturally bigger man....at around -150....
g.l.....
and skill....thanks for weighing in...appreciated...
Yeah, St. Pierre was insane vs. Jay Hieron. Loved that fight.
http://www.sherdog.com/images/pictures/3351.jpg
I almost switched over to Tanner today, I think that is a very good bet. Im still with Lawler and just have fun with it. Robbie not looking in great shape either:
http://www.mmaweekly.com/images/UFC50WeighIns/Lawler50WI.jpg
http://www.sherdog.com/images/pictures/3351.jpg
I almost switched over to Tanner today, I think that is a very good bet. Im still with Lawler and just have fun with it. Robbie not looking in great shape either:
http://www.mmaweekly.com/images/UFC50WeighIns/Lawler50WI.jpg
Added 2 units on Marvin Eastman. He should be able to keep this fight standing most of time and be dangerous from there. Tough matchup for Lutter who looks a little soft, while Eastman is dialed in.
Added Rich Franklin 3x to win 1. Far superior fighter...I have never been that impressed with Riviera, no matter what his camp says.
In for quite a few units on this UFC, more than usual. Good luck to all.
In for quite a few units on this UFC, more than usual. Good luck to all.
Robbie Lawler is a coin flip in every fight. he may have some of the best striking skills south in weight of Chuck Liddell. Once he gets down he can be tough to keep there. I just think he will be [ushed around tonight.
I really like St. Pierre tonight. I know he isnt a fav, but he will give hughes all he can handle. He is very unorthodox. If he wins we have a new star in the UFC. They guy is so much fun to watch.
I really like St. Pierre tonight. I know he isnt a fav, but he will give hughes all he can handle. He is very unorthodox. If he wins we have a new star in the UFC. They guy is so much fun to watch.
Easy Money. RIP Rodney Dangerfield.
The big one was the first, Salaverry. Costly late addition was Eastman, cost me a lot of profit.
good luck to all.
The big one was the first, Salaverry. Costly late addition was Eastman, cost me a lot of profit.
good luck to all.
