uglyplayz for Thursday

uglyplayz

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 16, 2002
20
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0
lodi, wi
Wednesday Record 5-2 +5.7 units
College Hoops Record 20-11-2 +14 units

These picks for today are beyond ugly......the thread should've been called hideousplayz for Thursday. This is the type of night where I will either get buried or come out smelling like roses. To me, some things just don't add up right linewise in these games.

Cleveland St. +8.5 1 unit
Drake +5.5 2 units
UWGB +4 2 unit
Rice +5 1 unit
Boston College +12.5 1 unit
Washington +6.5 2 units
UCSB -5 3 units
Santa Clara +4 2 unit

Trying to catch a little added value with Cleveland St.; UWM has just pulled off 2 road upsets against 2 quality ballclubs in Wright St. and Butler. I'm hoping the line is a little high and that UWM is overvalued.

Drake is facing the #1 team in the MVC; why is SIU at 15-3 only a 5.5 favorite to a ballclub who lost Sunday on their home floor by 6 to Northern Iowa? Something smells fishy here, I'll take a flier on the Bulldogs.

UWGB at 2-12 has lost 7 in a row, they are home tonight taking on a 10-7 Detroit Team; the line is begining to drop. Why??? I'll take UWGB; I'm thinking Detroit will be a public play. This too smells fishy?!

Just a gut instinct here on Rice, Hawaii has been tough at home this year, they were beaten Sat. by San Jose St., I think Rice will give em all they can handle tonight.

I like BC to keep this game close tonight; their guards match up well and am looking for the Dookies to be slightly overvalued here due to their recent strong performances and also in part to BC's recent poor showings.

Don't be surprised to see the Huskies win this outright; they play much better at home than on the road. Oregon at time struggles on the road, I think they will struggle to get a win let alone cover tonight.

Yes UCSB plays well at home, but why are they a 5 point favorite over 1'st place Cal Irvine? Irvine is fresh off 2 big performances against Utah St. and Pacific. On paper I believe Irvine is the better ballclub and the wrong team is favored here. I think Irvine will be a huge public play tonight and I will go with UCSB.

Why is Santa Clara at 6-9 only getting 4 points against a ballclub who has knocked off USC, UCLA, and Gonzaga? Santa Clara has not played well this season. Something smells a little fishy here too and because of this I will ride Santa Clara.
 

anlhar

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 4, 2001
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tampa
msn.com
hey ugly...

hey ugly...

I really like the way you cap these games. If it seems like an obvious play than bet the other way. The line makers in Vegas are smartter than we think. There are so many lines that just don't add up.

For eample I bet 5 units ( a very lot for me i never do that) on Kent state on the road against Buffalo about 2 weeks ago. Buffalo won outright i lost, but about three days ago Kent state played buffalo again this time Kent state was at home. The line Kent state -14.5. I thought wow that line seems pretty high for a team that just beat them a little over a week ago, but vegas knows more than me. They purposely set that line higher because they wanted action on buffalo. Kent state won by 40. Point being i like your betting style.

My betting style:

I get a print out first thing in the morrning and watch line swings if it swings over three points i will take that team every time even though i three points in the hole from when the line first started. Usually it doesn't matter that team covers anyway.

Here's what i like tonight-

Clemson moneyline (+220)

Southern Illinois (-3 first half )

this line does seem like you pointed out but i will take the hook and stick it right in my cornea
 

uglyplayz

Registered User
Forum Member
Jan 16, 2002
20
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0
lodi, wi
I like to go opposite the public as much as possible, if all the obvious teams won all the time Vegas wouldn't be full of huge casinos. Stupid bets by dumb bettors built those casinos. I use the consensus link at wagerline to see which teams are bet the most and many times I go opposite those teams. Another good angle is to watch money moves, especially those moves which are opposite the huge public consensus. A big example of that would be the Arizona St. Game last night. Everyone and their brother posted Arizona as an easy winner on forums last night, the line moved heavily toward Arizona St.

Today popular forum writeups are on Cal Irvine, Duke, Pepperdine and Detroit. I'm not saying I'm right all the time, but this method of capping does do well over time. Thanks for your interest in my write up!
 
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