unc @ nc state >>>

loophole

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feeling almost obliged to post a writeup on this game although not sure i have any insight to offer beyond the obvious. as would be expected from the season carolina is having, their road record had been abysmal, 1-7 s/u, 1-6 ats, with the lone win a blowout of a disinterested clemson squad. they did record a "neutral" court win over a depleted st joe squad in charlotte. state 13-4 at the esa this season, 7-5-1 ats.


today's game at the esa will be a rare sellout. since the opening a couple of years ago the level of play by the wolfpack has not drawn the faithful with the regularity of years' past. but today will be different with senior day and the renewed enthusiam that a long-missed winning attitude can bring. all three wolfpack seniors - anthony grundy, archie miller and brian keeter - are extremely popular players with the team and the fans. keeter is a seldom seen guard who is known for his ability to bang in a thee-pointer in the waning seconds of wolfpack blowouts, when fans will chant for his appearance. look for him to get the symbolic start today and a set play to open him up at the arc. grundy and miller's roles on this team are well known.


while having carolina for senior day will provide impetus enough, a state win today will carry many levels of ignificance. herb sendek has never beaten carolina in raleigh, which necessarily means state has never won over carolina on their new esa homecourt. a win would also give the wolfpack 20 for the season and guarantee state a winning acc season and as a consequence an ncaa tourney berth after a 10 year absence.


tarheel morale has dipped to another low after the loss to ohio in the dean dome. carolina's problems are no secret as a complete absence of dependable guard play has debilitated the heels both offensively and defensively. with the variety of offensive threats offered up by the wolfpack guards, in all likelihood today's game will feature more of the same. state three-point-shooting has stayed pretty consistently around the 40% level over the last 10 games, and carolina allows almost 40% of opponents' treys on the road. virtually the entire wolfpack team, even center marcus melvin, can shoot the trey and should do so with relative ease today.


there was an interesting article in yesterday's washington post that detailed the tarheel miseries. it included a recounting of the rift between coach doherty and dean smith, the first time i have seen that situation laid out in print. it goes back to when doherty was first hired and insisted on bringing his own staff and replacing guthridge's assistant, all former deam smith players. matt pushed this through with baddeur without consulting with dean and the damage was done. from my years as a sports reporter in raleigh i can safely assure you that smith has an ego as big as all outdoors. after the perceived snub, dean moved from his office among the coaching staff's to a remore recess in the basement of the smith center. there has been only minimal polite interaction between the two since.


i've read virtually every writeup and player interview of the tarheels after the ohio loss, and one thing just jumps out at me. every carolina player bemoaned the losing, the apparent lack of effort and answers, and committed to not giving up. but not once did i read or hear one of them say - hey! - we've got state coming up this weekend and a big opportunity for redemption. nary a mention of today's game. in years past in this rivalry, the motivational level of the underdog coming in has almost always been sky high as the game was always regarded as a way ro redeem an otherwise forgetable year. i haver not been able to detect any such sentiment among the tarheels. quite remarkable, really.


i'm waiting for the total on the game also, expecting something around the mid 140's. with carolina's lack of perimeter defense and the wolfpack's diverse three point threats, i would expect the pack to break 80. tarheels allow 84 ppg on the road.


final nc state 84, unc 67.
 

wufdude

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Great write-up loophole...I'm heading to the ESA in a bit and am looking for a Pack blowout. First half line (-6 1/2) looks great to me as well. Like you, I'm waiting for that total to come. Thanks for all the great ACC write-ups. How about that GTU win yesterday. Hoping they can snag that 5th spot in the tourney. Although UVA is really struggling right now, I like our chances a little better to beat Tech in the first round. That is, if we don't go to Winston-Salem and win.....
 

loophole

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wufdude, it really wouldn't surprise me to see this game start off slowly and the heels hang around for a bit. that has been a frequent scenario in state games this year.
 

just cover

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loophole-

Excellent write up. It seems to me that everbody wants to hammer on N. Car. for their past domanance of teams and NC St. will want to put a hurtin' on the hurtin' Tarheels. I am with wufdude in that I like the 1st half of -6.5 for a larger play than for the game while I do like the game. Good luck and I hope the game is a laugher for the wolfpack...

just cover
 

THE HITMAN

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Loop: Nice write up.......I usually dont have too much to add and no too much to add here, except:

NC State 6-1 ats this yearwhen playing teams w/ losing records.

N Car 3-10 after a home game
3-10 as a doggy ats
1-8 ats in their last 9 revenge games when losing by
10 or more points in the first game.

HIT EM THE HITMAN
 

loophole

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the line as i played them: nc state -13 and over 145-.


smaller plays:

maryland -13: my lucky number for the day (and uni number in both hoops and lacrosse). without josh howard, wake again will be grossly mismatched in the backcourt - not good vs blake and dixon. dixon and baxter have their jerseys retired in style.


kan/neb over 161: see very little likelihood that huskers can slow down the jayhawks running game. 70 or so from nebraska should be enough to get this one over the number.


gl today.
 

loophole

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adding:


nc state -9 2nd half: can't believe carolina's guards can continue their level of play.
 

Hoops

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Can't believe how poor State's defense has been. Defensive miscommunications and blunders all over the place.
 

RAZ

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Loop, WTG! Not even a sweat, lol! Saved me from - day. GL!
 

fletcher

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nice job loop i road them with you,thanks.

even when unc was up at half just had that feeling they would fall apart,why should things change it has happened all year.

and any acc team thats gets to kick unc while they are down will and has done it all year,almost to the point of bulling them,because of how unc has been in the past,its sad for their fans but i kinda like it never was a unc fan nor will i ever
might have to do with the 2 years coaching at wilmington,because they just loved to kick our nuts in.

if you ever go to a state baseball game stick your head in the dugout and say hi to billy best,tell him shimer is living large in vegas,he will get a kick out of that.

thanks again.
 
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