UNDERDOGS---UNDERDOGS ---- underdogs

dalygolfer20

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Apr 27, 2005
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Recent studies have shown that 44% of all Major League Baseball games have been won by underdogs. DOing some recent comparisons. This past 2004 NFL season including the playoffs and Super Bowl show that underdogs were just 86-176 straight up. That is an outright win percentage of just 32.8%. College football data from this past regular season and bowl season show that underdogs were 173-475 straight up or just 26.7%. Of course both of those numbers would improve if you were to use ATS calculations. Baseball wagering is clear in the respect of either a straight up win, or straight up loss determines the result of your wager. That is of course unless you dabble with the run-line, WHICH IS THE SUREST way to dissipate a bankroll. Bookmakers would invite any customer aboard who strictly would wager on the money line on either the NFL or college football. The odds would be in their favor dramatically as evidenced by the previously mentioned figures.

If you wagered on every baseball underdog through the course of the season you would cash 44% of the time. Most casual observers would say why would you do such an ignorant thing if you know you will lose 56% of the time. Quite simply no other sport when it applies to sports wagering gives you a greater rate of return versus your investment at such a high percentage than baseball. I will even carry this philosophy one step further. If you eliminated underdogs of +200 or more your win percentage would increase to over 47%. Simple handicapping logic would tell you that lines makers have installed these teams as huge underdogs for good reason. Now let?s take a look at the chart I have put together below. This chart displays the daily records of all baseball underdogs from 4/22/2005 to 4/28/2005, which is a full week of wagering. These records are based on the parameters of all underdogs less than +200 and on an average $0.15 line.

DateRecordUnits 4/22/20057-6+3.07 4/23/20055-8+1.69 4/24/20055-8+1.10 4/25/20055-4+2.13 4/26/20054-8-2.72 4/27/20057-6+4.56 4/28/20054-1+3.97
WinsLossesPercentageUnits 374147.4%19.24
REVIEW TIME ---- so everything is crystal clear. In a seven day wagering period between 4/22/2005 to 4/28/2005. Wagering on all baseball underdogs of less than +200 during this span produced 47.4% winners. Bettors that play $100.00 per game would have profited $1924.00. Bettors that play $1000.00 a game would have profited $19,224.00. Some weeks the figure may be higher and others may be lower. So my advice would be that if you are going attempt this philosophy make sure that you have a big enough bankroll. You should also not exceed betting 3% of your bankroll on any one game.

Baseball wagering can be the most profitable entity in sports betting. Just having simple wagering methods of playing underdogs daily can make you a significant amount of money


inFO FROM ANOTHER SOURCE !!!! jUST THOUGHT IT WAS GOOD...
 

BleedDodgerBlue

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Feb 12, 2004
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Sports betting is cyclical. Some years are dog years, some are favorite. All evens out if you give it long enough.

I'm not disagreeing with you that llooking for dogs can be very profitable. There are even weeks where just betting blindly all dogs will show you a nice return.

Back to the age old philosophy of bankroll management. You just simply cannot apply this theory without a monstorous bankroll to handle the swings.

Again, not disagreeing with you to look for dogs, but you cannot just bet all dogs blindly. For one, the swings will be enormous and your bankroll must be monstrous.

Also, I have the data somewhere, but if you bet MLB blindly dogs July through August of last year, you would be homeless, broke, divorced, and probably sitting with a shotgun in your mouth. Favorites covered at an incredible clip the latter part of last season. You just don't know when streaks are gonna start or die.

I agree that dogs should be the first thing to look for as they do offer a nice return on investment, but you cannot blindly bet them for a prolonged period of time.

gl
 
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