? The Belmont Stakes
Where: Belmont Park
When: Saturday, June 9th
Horse racing fans were dealt a cruel blow when Triple Crown hopeful I?ll Have Another was scratched from the 144th Running of The Belmont Stakes the day before the race due to a tendon injury?one that resulted in his retirement. Still, there are some high-quality animals in the field. They may have beaten I?ll Have Another on the square?unfortunately, we?ll never know. Let?s analyze the race and formulate a betting strategy.
As I see it, there are only three horses capable of winning this race. I?ll discuss their pros and cons in order of preference:
#3-Union Rags (3-1): He?s the most accomplished horse on dirt, with a record of 7-4-1-1 ($1,198,800). One of those wins came over this very track in last year?s Grade 1 Champagne, in which he overcame a troubled trip to win impressively going away. There?s plenty of long-distance breeding on his dam?s side?that, coupled with his long, fluid stride, suggests that the 1 ?-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes is within his scope. Also, the switch to jockey John Velazquez pairs him with a rider who knows the Belmont Park oval like the back of his hand. You?ll recall Johnny V. won this race aboard the filly Rags to Riches in 2007, defeating two-time Horse of the Year Curlin in the process.
With a clean trip, I?m expecting Union Rags to gallop this field into the ground.
#5-Dullahan (9-5): Despite the fact that this horse?s two wins came on Keeneland?s polytrack, a case can be made that he?s equally effective on dirt. He finished a fast-closing third in the Kentucky Derby, ahead of 17 other runners, and zipped a bullet 4 furlongs on the main track in :45 and change in his final Belmont Stakes work. This horse is fresh and doing very well right now. He should make his presence felt in the stretch.
#9-Paynter (7-2): This relatively inexperienced colt has plenty of talent, and is the only member of the field with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (106, 100). His romp last out vs. allowance company at Pimlico was visually impressive, but the prospect of a bounce looms. Adding to the concern is his so-so final work for this race, in which he appeared to tire in the closing stages?.that?s not a good sign when you?re getting ready to go a mile-and-a-half. A repeat of his last race puts him in the thick of it?but a regression could cost him a spot in the top three.
As for the others, I could picture #1-Street Life (12-1), #4-Atigun (30-1), #10-Optimizer (20-1) and #12-My Adonis (20-1) rounding out tri?s and super?s, but that?s about it.
I?ll bet on Union Rags to win at odds of 8-5 or better. I?ll also key Union Rags on top in exactas, tri?s and super?s, with Dullahan second and the others mentioned above third and fourth. The tickets would look like this: $1 Exacta 3/5?total risk $1. $1 Trifecta 3/5/1,4,9,10,12?total risk $5. $1 Superfecta 3/5/1,4,9,10,12/1,4,9,10,12?total risk $20.
--Pete, BetOnline.com
Where: Belmont Park
When: Saturday, June 9th
Horse racing fans were dealt a cruel blow when Triple Crown hopeful I?ll Have Another was scratched from the 144th Running of The Belmont Stakes the day before the race due to a tendon injury?one that resulted in his retirement. Still, there are some high-quality animals in the field. They may have beaten I?ll Have Another on the square?unfortunately, we?ll never know. Let?s analyze the race and formulate a betting strategy.
As I see it, there are only three horses capable of winning this race. I?ll discuss their pros and cons in order of preference:
#3-Union Rags (3-1): He?s the most accomplished horse on dirt, with a record of 7-4-1-1 ($1,198,800). One of those wins came over this very track in last year?s Grade 1 Champagne, in which he overcame a troubled trip to win impressively going away. There?s plenty of long-distance breeding on his dam?s side?that, coupled with his long, fluid stride, suggests that the 1 ?-mile distance of the Belmont Stakes is within his scope. Also, the switch to jockey John Velazquez pairs him with a rider who knows the Belmont Park oval like the back of his hand. You?ll recall Johnny V. won this race aboard the filly Rags to Riches in 2007, defeating two-time Horse of the Year Curlin in the process.
With a clean trip, I?m expecting Union Rags to gallop this field into the ground.
#5-Dullahan (9-5): Despite the fact that this horse?s two wins came on Keeneland?s polytrack, a case can be made that he?s equally effective on dirt. He finished a fast-closing third in the Kentucky Derby, ahead of 17 other runners, and zipped a bullet 4 furlongs on the main track in :45 and change in his final Belmont Stakes work. This horse is fresh and doing very well right now. He should make his presence felt in the stretch.
#9-Paynter (7-2): This relatively inexperienced colt has plenty of talent, and is the only member of the field with triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures (106, 100). His romp last out vs. allowance company at Pimlico was visually impressive, but the prospect of a bounce looms. Adding to the concern is his so-so final work for this race, in which he appeared to tire in the closing stages?.that?s not a good sign when you?re getting ready to go a mile-and-a-half. A repeat of his last race puts him in the thick of it?but a regression could cost him a spot in the top three.
As for the others, I could picture #1-Street Life (12-1), #4-Atigun (30-1), #10-Optimizer (20-1) and #12-My Adonis (20-1) rounding out tri?s and super?s, but that?s about it.
I?ll bet on Union Rags to win at odds of 8-5 or better. I?ll also key Union Rags on top in exactas, tri?s and super?s, with Dullahan second and the others mentioned above third and fourth. The tickets would look like this: $1 Exacta 3/5?total risk $1. $1 Trifecta 3/5/1,4,9,10,12?total risk $5. $1 Superfecta 3/5/1,4,9,10,12/1,4,9,10,12?total risk $20.
--Pete, BetOnline.com
