Upcoming Fights

[BOXLOCKS]

LETS TAKE A BREAK FROM THE KLITCHOOSKI ARGUMENT AND LOOK DOWN THE ROAD A LITTLE. HERE ARE MY EARLY LEANS:

5* BARRERA-MORALES OVER 10.5 -300 NO NEED TO EXPLAIN

4* TOKUYAMA-KAWASHIMA OVER 10.5 -300 NEITHER SUPER FLYWEIGHT HAS BEEN KO'D, AND NEITHER HAS KO'D ANYONE WITH A DECENT RECORD. DID I MENTION THEY WEIGH 113 POUNDS. THIS WOULD BE A 5* BUT TOKU IS A SOUTHPAW AND
A CLASH OF HEADS IS POSSIBLE.

3* ARAMBULET-NIIDA OVER 10.5 -280 NEITHER MINIMUM WEIGHT HAS BEEN KO'D, AND NEITHER HAS KO'D ANYONE WITH A DECENT RECORD. DID I MENTION THEY WEIGH 105 POUNDS.

3* OQUENDO-RUIZ OVER 10 -280 THESE GUYS HIT LIKE FLYWIEGHTS AND BOTH CAN TAKE A PUNCH JUST IN CASE ONE OF THEM MANS UP.

2* MITCHELL OVER TSZYU +300 VALUE PLAY... THIS LINE IS WAY TOO HIGH. SHARMBA HELD HIS OWN THE LAST TIME THEY FOUGHT, IF IT WEREN'T FOR HIS KNEE GIVING OUT HE MIGHT HAVE WON. ALSO TSZYU DIDN'T LOOK VERY GOOD IN HIS LAST FIGHT WITH LEIJA, AND MAY BE GETTING OVER CONFIDENT. MITCHELL LOOKED VERY GOOD IN HIS LAST FIGHT WITH BEN TACKY.

1* MOSELY OVER DE LA HOYA BY DECISION +230 VALUE PLAY...
I KNOW OSCAR WANTS REVENGE, BUT MOSELY NEEDS A WIN BAD! AND HE KNOWS THAT ANOTHER WIN AGAINST OSCAR WOULD BE HUGE FOR HIS CAREER. MOSELY IS STILL THE QUIKER OF THE TWO, BUT HE WILL NOT KNOCK OSCAR OUT. SO "IF" SHANE WINS, IT WILL BE BY DECISION.

1* MAYORGA OVER FORREST BY KO OR TKO +285 VALUE PLAY...
THATS HOW THEIR FIRST FIGHT ENDED, AND MAYORGA PROBABLY
WON'T WIN A DECISION. HE'LL THROW BOMBS ALL NIGHT AND IF HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF, ONE WILL LAND.

NOTE: ON MY VALUE PLAYS I'M NOT PREDICTING WHO IS GOING TO WIN THE FIGHT. I JUST THINK THE ODDS ARE OFF ENOUGH TO MAKE IT WORTH TAKING A CHANCE.

ALSO LIKE:

SMALL PLAY MOSELY-DE LA HOYA DRAW +1500

SMALL PLAY BARRERA-MORALES DRAW +1500


FIGHT FANS, HIT ME WITH YOUR AGREES AND DISAGREES. AND SCOTT-ATLANTA, I'M WAITING FOR YOUR RESPONSE TO MY LAST REPLY ON THE "BOXING" THREAD AS WELL.

GL BL

 

[THE KOD]

SCOTT-ATLANTA- WITH THAT NAME YOU MUST BE A JIM ROME FAN. I LISTEN TO THE JUNGLE EVERY DAY. HE COVERS BOXING AS MUCH AS ANY OTHER SPORT.

AND I WOULD BE HONORED TO RUN WITH THE PACK, BUT I'M NOT SURE HOW. HELP ME OUT.
............................................................................................
BOX

Dont know Jim Rome never listen to radio it interrupts my thinking time in a vehicle.

When you have posted 50 times you get to select a avatar by your name. When you get there I will help you out.

Mostly big dogs run with the pack. We got a thread in general forum you can check out the pack in there.

KOD

 

[THE KOD]

Mosely knocks out De la Hoya in this fight.


DOWN GOES DE LA HOYA DOWN GOES DE LA HOYA !


KOD

 

[BOXLOCKS]

WHAT?

WHAT?

DE LA HOYA HAS NEVER BEEN KO'D, AND MOSLEY IS NOT EXACTLY A POWER PUNCHER. HOW DID YOU COME UP WITH THAT OUTCOME?

IF YOUR SERIOUS ABOUT YOUR PREDICTION, I THINK OLYMPIC HAS MOSLEY BY KO OR TKO AT +400. BUT REMEMBER OSCAR IS THE NATURALY BIGGER GUY. HE TOOK EVERY PUNCH THAT A JUICED UP VARGAS LANDED, AND VARGAS IS NATURALY BIGGER THAN OSCAR.

I THINK IT WOULD BE SAFER TO TAKE MOSLEY AT +180, IN CASE IT GOES THE DISTANCE.

THANKS FOR THE RESPONSE, KEEP THEM COMING!

BL

 

[gardenweasel]

like the plays...

like the plays...

don`t see anything i would sharply disagree with....we sort of think alike....i mean,seeing value in certain odds even though you are not sure about the result of the wager....when the odds are way to long to not take a flyer on what you think is a substantial dog with a legit shot....these don`t always win....but,as you said,it`s hard to pass up the value of the play...you hit one 4 or 5 to 1 dog and you can coast a bit....

also thought the draw lines are worth a minor investment.....dela hoya/mosely and barrera/morales should be tighter than a knat`s a--hole......

i have a gut that mayorga isn`t quite as good as most think....six heads lewis has been exposed...and forrest was way to cocky coming off the mosley wins....i liken the first fight to rahmann`s win over lewis.....i don`t think lightning will strike twice...forrest is to talented....but,at almost 3-1,i see your point...

if i disagree with you on a wager,i won`t hesitate to let you know.....also,do the same for me....this forum is here to help us make a little jack....kinda keeping one another honest.....

great to have you aboard....you seem to have brought some life to the boxing board....keep it coming.....

g.l.


btw.....looks like hopkins-toney is cancelled and barrera-morales is also kaput(barrera-morales will probably still happen....but,probably not this year)............

 

[BOXLOCKS]

TOKUYAMA BY 12 ROUND DECISION

TOKUYAMA BY 12 ROUND DECISION

I HOPE EVERYONE CASHED IN ON MY 4* PLAY!
ALSO TOOK AGUIRRE-HOSHINO OVER 10.5 @ -200 (LAST MINUTE PLAY)

SO FAR:
KLITSCHKO +400 -1 UNIT
LEWIS UNDER -180 +2
TOKUYAMA OVER -300 +2
AGUIRRE OVER -200 +1
MESI OVER +125 -1

YTD TOTAL: +3 UNITS

PLENTY OF FIGHTS THIS WEEK, SO FAR THE ONLY THING THAT STANDS OUT IS THE COTTO-MARTINEZ UNDER 8.5 @-165.

MARTINEZ HAS BEEN KO'D BY RANDAL BAILY AND ARTUR GRIGORJAN. COTTO HAS KNOCKED OUT 10 OF HIS LAST 11 AGAINST DECENT COMPETITION!

ANY COMMENTS ON THAT?

STILL LOOKING @ THE OTHER FIGHTS.

GL BL

 

[ferdville]

Don't want to start an argument because I certainly understand the reasoning. The idea of getting "value" for your money comes to light most often in sports like boxing and horse racing where you have a variety of odds. However, there is no value in a losing wager. If my horse is 20-1 and he gets beat by a 4-5 horse, there was no value to my bet - it lost. In boxing I cannot bear laying 300 or 400 or more even if the fight is almost a guarantee. But taking the other side simply because the price is high or it is perceived as value, can be a costly move. I know many players that won't play a horse under 8/5. Nothing wrong with that - but if you think it is the best horse keep your hands in your pocket and don't play it or anything else. I do understand that you only need to hit 20% as opposed to 90% to make a profit over time. I think that picking your spots is certainly the key and I value the knowledge and opinions of those who post boxing here. I have had plenty of friends that will lay a grand to win 300 in boxing - I just don't have the guts myself. Thanks to all the great posters in this forum - I think it is the most knowledgable of all the forums.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

ferdville
THANKS FOR YOUR INPUT

WHAT IF YOU HAD SEEN THE 20-1 HORSE RACE BEFORE, AND THOUGHT IT HAD A SMALL CHANCE TO WIN...THATS VALUE.
DON'T GET ME WRONG, I'M NOT LAYING MONEY ON EVERY DOG THAT HAS A CHANCE TO WIN, BUT HERE ARE A FEW EXAMPLES OF WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT:

#1 IF I HAD TO PICK WHO WAS GOING TO WIN THE LEWIS-KLITSCHKO FIGHT, I WOULD HAVE PICKED LEWIS. BUT I THOUGHT VITALI HAD A 45% CHANCE OF WINNING. SO +400 LOOKED WAY TOO HIGH TO PASS ON A 'SMALL' INVESTMENT. AND LOOK WHAT HAPPENED, HE WAS AHEAD ON POINTS WHEN IT WAS STOPPED.

#2 MOSLEY WON A DECISION IN THE FIRST FIGHT AGAINST DE LA HOYA. BUT IN THE REMATCH SHANE IS +180 AND +230 BY DECISION. I THINK DE LA HOYA HAS A 50% CHANCE OF WINNING, BUT AT THOSE ODDS I CAN'T PASS ON MOSLEY.

#3 ALTHOUGH I AGREE WITH G.W. THAT MAYORGA IS NOT AS GOOD AS SOME THINK, AND FORREST MIGHT GET HIS REVENGE. MAYORGA +220 OR +285 BY KO OR TKO LOOKS WAY TOO HIGH. REMEMBER HOW THE LAST FIGHT ENDED!

THE WAY I SEE IT, IF SOMETHING HAS A 50% CHANCE OF HAPPENING, AND THE ODDS ARE +200 OR BETTER. TAKE IT.

IN SOME CASES THE ODDS DON'T HAVE TO BE 50%. I WILL BE PLAYING A DRAW IN THE MOSLEY- DE LA HOYA AND BARRERA-MORALES FIGHTS. BOTH FIGHTS WILL PROBABLY COME DOWN TO THE LAST ROUND. AND ITS WORTH LAYING 20 TO MAKE 300 ON THOSE ODDS (imo).

BY THE WAY, FOR THOSE OF YOU TAKING FORREST IN THE REMATCH. YOU MIGHT CONSIDER TAKING HIM BY DECISION
AT +140 INSTEAD OF -260. MAYORGA SAID THE ONLY PUNCHES HE HAS EVER FELT WERE FROM HIS FATHER WHEN HE WAS A LITTLE BOY. AND I LOOK FOR VERNON TO FIGHT A VERY CAREFUL FIGHT.

KEEP POSTING ferdville

GL BL

 

[ferdville]

BOXLOCKS - I don't disagree with you and it was obvious that you understand the concept. I have just seen alot of guys lose their shirts (and more) because they refuse to play a fav - or better - just lay off the bet. I agree with everything you say. What is your thought on a potential Roy Jones - Lewis contest?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

ferdville
I FIND IT HARD TO BELIEVE THAT ROY WOULD TAKE THAT CHANCE, NO MATTER HOW BIG THE PAYCHECK. HE HAS BEEN VERY SMART IN SELECTING OPPONENTS HIS WHOLE CAREER. IT WOULD BE VERY FOOLISH FOR HIM TO THINK THAT LEWIS WILL JUST ROLL OVER AND TAKE THE POT SHOTS LIKE RUIZ DID.

I THINK ROY WOULD DANCE FOR THE FIRST FEW ROUNDS. BUT HE'D GET CAUGHT ONCE HE SLOWED DOWN AND LEWIS FIGURED OUT HOW TO CUT OFF THE RING. AND ONCE ROY TASTES THE POWER OF LEWIS, HE'LL GO DOWN.

RING SIZE WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE A HUGE FACTOR.

WHATS YOUR OPINION?

GL BL

 

[ferdville]

Well, nobody can ever claim that Jones went out of his way to fight the best! You are 100% correct - he basically hand picks his opponents. I doubt if either of the two would want this fight because the possibility that something strange could happen would be great. I think Jones could stay away from Lewis and use his quickness to stay out of trouble. But there isn't much chance of him trading punches - might make for a dull fight. And Jones has to know that if he absorbs too many punches from Lewis or if Lewis can throw him around the ring, he be finished. My guess is that this fight will never be made.

 

[gardenweasel]

if

if

you put a gun to my head and said,"pick the winner of lewis klitschko,your life depends on it"......i take lewis....but,at 5 to 1,as we all saw,klitschko was a very,very live dog.....lewis was out of shape,had a last minute upgrade of opponent,was 37 yrs old and had been off for 377 days....that,was a value play imo.....

i had a substantial play on rafael marquez over tim austin at almost 3-1....nobody thought he`d win..a big puncher that was on an enormous hot streak...great bloodlines...and tim austin,although highly thought of,was winning in a division with a talent deficit....bad division.......but,he was more than capable of pulling the upset......and did just that...that`s a value play...

you have to know something about what you are wagering on....you don`t just take dogs to take dogs.....

i`ll say this,betting prohibitive faves can work...it can also put you in an awfully deep hole...

you have to pick your shots....at both ends of the odds spectrum....

congrats,bl,on the winners,.....keep it going....

 

[Got5onIt]

Mosely over DLH by decision is a very solid play. My money's on it.........