update on Jan predictions, picks

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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just thought would due a quick review of the stocks mentioned in the year end predictions thread (one HBM) and the four for MJ stock picks (jan).

there was negative on one of my stocks so thought it was a good time...lol.

1. HBM (Toronto) $5.75 now $11.70
sold 25% $8 and 25% 7.50 (upadte thread).
this is a junior base metal company in western Canada. it has many projects on the go, excellent management and strong metal prices should earn $1.40 06 and $1.20 07.

no should not have sold any but had a nice gain (had built up a very large position) so sold half, this stock is very volatile often moves 2-6% in a day. will probably hold the rest.

have half at a stop $9.

MJ Group picks

US picks

Ashland ASH $64.68 US
$70.10 now
yields 1.60% $3.50 06 $4 07

boring steady company, getting more involved in the water business. small portion of the company.
thought it would do 10% and basically has.

LFG $65.25 now $67.84 yield 1.06%
can you say dead money, probably nothing will change throughout the year.

ASH, and LFG are "value" plays that I got when I did a stock screen using many variables, they have also showed up on other people year end list who did similiar lists.


Cdn. picks

should have picks some jr. gold stocks as $600 gold moose pasture is now worth ten (hundreds) of millions.


still like the jr. oil and gas....cash flow and earnings.
both trade on Toronto

Oil $3.38 now $4.34
this one had negative news, a 5 million well called joy came up dry. that is 5 million gone.

still more drilling to be done in the north sea 2006 280 million will be spent drilling.

great prospects and great risks. still well run and some great potential in the north sea. hope this is the end of the bad news.

stock went down only .02 cents on the news, as it was expected.


GCA 2.20 now $1.97

okay down on this stock and on a day when most jr. and sr. had good days in the energy patch this never seems to move.

still made .05 per share and .40 cash flow per share.

thought natural gas would go down (predictions thread) I still picked a jr. gas play. that takes brains.

still expanded land position, great drilling prospects in western canada. and a stock with growth potential trading at 5X cash flow.

so holding the position, and believe it is cheap.



NOTE: I never add to a postion that shows a loss. there are two options sell or hold.

you never dollar cost average on a losing positon. good way to destroy a portfolio.

thanks
selkirk
 
Last edited:

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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just a quick update;

Teck has offered to buy Inco for 17.8 billion. deal probably will not go through.

inco 13.8%
teck (toronto ) -5.2%
Falconbridge 6%

have positions on all three so overall positive. would not put new money in the sector currently. may write (sell) a few puts far out of the money, premiums good.

HBM $15.55 (on the merger news almost up $1.)

remaining postion stop loss at $12.50

GCA $2 dead stock, cheap though, also like Delphi and Vero they were mentioned last year. both have done well.

small loss on GCA.

my two US stocks are going nowhere ASH, and LFG. ASH had a good run but then reported earings, they could not pass costs in their Valvoline division to customers.

that is not a good sign.

OIL has hit a discovery early stages however stock is up to $5.61. not selling any yet.


summary HBM Great, Oil Very Good, GCA dead natural gas stock but cheap.

ASH and LFG if they do not make me at least 10% will have to find another stock screeing system.

thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 16, 1999
2,147
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0
Canada
quick summer update of the stock pick in the predictions thread hbm, and the stock selection jan dtb

HBM (predictions thread)

then $5.75 this stock has traded over $15. and now sits at $13.80.

currently out of the stock last trade was at $12.50.

believe this stock will sell off on weakness in the metals over the summer and maybe into the fall.

a very cheap stock which will look at buying back into below $11. small positon.


Jan thread

my two US stocks chosen by a screening program have been flat to down.

ASH then 64.68 now 64.22
LFG 65.25 now 59.59. concerned it broke below 60.

2 cdn. stocks picked

GCA 2.20 now 1.78
GCA is a good company and has good value but has exposure to natural gas, the market will hate nat. gas jr. and jr. energy plays in general

hold/sell.
cheap but not going anywhere for a while

small holding


OIL (Toronto)

OIL then 3.38 now 6.46

this stock has been moving up sharply on not much news, have a stop on half at $6.

a jr. with great way to play some north sea projects.


thanks
selkirk
 
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